Thread by @RealCarlAllen

Trump poll average by state

State: July / Present

PA: 47.9/47.8
WI: 47.1/47.3
MI: 45.5/47.6
AZ: 47.7/48.8
NV: 47.9/47.5
GA: 46.6/48.4
NC: 47.2/48.2

Notice anything interesting?

In July, when Biden was still in the race, undecideds were well into the double digits

Now, with idks hovering around 3-5, Trump hasn't improved his position much anywhere

And other than maybe AZ, he hasn't pushed his poll avg to anything unexpected

Ceiling = 🚩 (for Rs)

Remember when we (but no one else who does forecasts, apparently) all learned that 49-47 is better than 46-40?

Well, let's apply that lesson to poll averages

Going from 45.5 to 47.7 is less valuable than going from 47.7 to 48.7

We already knew AZ and GA would be close

All this movement means is that it probably won't be a blowout...which I don't think anyone would expect

But Trump hitting these 48 ceilings in the blue wall states, where he got 48.8, 48.7, and 47.8 in 2020 is kind of exactly what you'd expect if Harris were favored...

As a forecaster, one of the hardest things to do is to find floor and ceiling

Unlike Silver, I strongly support @MonmouthPoll/@PollsterPatrick asking questions in a novel way, because I can use this data into my forecasts...and he can't

https://x.com/BimRichardson/status/1842349613950661074?t=s4xYyiSjrztClxMJ0tS7JA&s=19