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Most recents (14)

My contribution to keeping quarantined #ElectionTwitter sane: A Tour of the 50 States*

*Equal-population simulation (approximated by counties) 1/40
@JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @HarryEnten @Redistrict @ecaliberseven @PoliticsWolf @uselectionatlas @DKElections @Center4Politics
I used Redraw the States to resize them all to 10-11 Electoral Votes (sans DC/3 & Los Angeles county/16).

Electoral College:
2016: Clinton 297-241
2012: Obama 317-221

Then got curious how they voted for Gov/Sen... 2/40…
NB: Methodology: I combined results by year-sets e.g. 2012-16 (Sen), and 2013-16 (Gov).

I used the wonderful to pull county results going back to 1957 (i.e. stopped when Hawaii and Alaska were admitted as states + data quality issues that far back). 3/40
Read 42 tweets
Unfortunately I think Richard Burr has little incentive to resign.

He's already retiring in 2022. There will never be enough votes in the Senate to expel him. And he could rightly reason that the coronavirus news cycle is so chaotic people will forget about it by next week.
At the very least, Burr has a strong incentive to wait until July, when it's too late to schedule a special election, and see if things have cooled off by then.

If not, THEN he can resign, and his appointed GOP replacement can stay on until the regularly scheduled race in 2022.
(Help me out here #ElectionTwitter ... I think that's right but I'm not 100% versed in how special election scheduling law in NC works.)
Read 3 tweets
A friend who lives in Chatham County, NC took this picture outside of an early voting location today.

Those flags are not usually there - people drove in with them to do this.

#NCPol #ElectionTwitter #Primary2020 #chatham #NC
More photos from outside an early voting site in Chatham County, NC. (Photos were not taken by me, but by a friend who would rather not have their name made public.)
Additional photos from outside an early voting polling place today in Pittsboro, NC. (Photos were taken by a friend.)
Read 11 tweets
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Read 27 tweets
Good morning, #GaPol and fellow election geeks! Another day, another state election board meeting in Georgia! Starting off-a state legislator who says the new rule on machines per voter subverts legislative intent. Great start to a cold wintry day!
A @GeorgiaStateU student and @GACollegeDems expresses serious concern over rollout - and notes that several counties have yet to receive their machines. Absentee ballots go out in 2 weeks. 😬
Numerous blind voters are expressing concern over accessibility-the printout is far too small, and right now the only verification method is reading the print-out. #CripTheVote
Read 23 tweets
How about some happy political news? Here are some updates. Two years ago I wrote about a retired librarian with a bad knee and 4 grandchildren, who had thrown herself into local politics for the first time after Donald Trump's election.
Tonight she was elected Vice-Chair of her Township Democratic Committee…
In March 2018 I wrote about the angry and inspired women who had found each other in deep red Westmoreland County (in the snow by the courthouse protesting the Muslim ban) and created a grassroots group that knocked hundreds of doors to elect Conor Lamb…
Read 15 tweets
Here is my assessment of Democrats' efforts to flip the Senate in 2020.

As you can see, @dscc nabbed a few great recruits that put the chamber in play, but there are also a few key missed opportunities that sorely stick out (see the lower right area).

cc: #ElectionTwitter
In particular, Stacey Abrams, Michelle Nunn or Jason Carter could have pushed either GA seat into Tossup territory, as could Beto O'Rourke or Joaquin Castro in TX.

MT could also have become a Lean R race with Steve Bullock, and KY could have with Rocky Adkins or Matt Jones.
But it's not all bad news for Dems!

They got perfect candidates in CO, AZ, and ME, passable ones in NC and IA, and good enough ones in KS and AK to make these usually very-red states possible wildcards.

KY and SC won't be competitive but could be money sucks for the GOP, too.
Read 3 tweets
NEW (thread): North Carolina GOP recently passed new gerrymandered legislative districts. We filed an amicus brief you can read here proposing alternate nonpartisan districts for the court. These maps show the state Senate (GOP's map on left)… #NCpol #NCGA
These maps show the North Carolina GOP's new state House gerrymander (first map) & the two nonpartisan maps we proposed instead (our two are very similar to each other)… #NCpol #NCGA
Although the court barred using partisan data when drawing new maps, they didn't bar using it to assess the maps afterward, which we've done using 3 common measures of bias. New GOP remedial maps still have sizable bias. Our maps have a smaller GOP bias & are fairer #NCpol #NCGA
Read 14 tweets
One of my 2018 New Year's resolution was to learn Tableau. Waited until Dec., but I did it!

I decided to map DeKalb County, GA's performance for the 2018 governor's race.

Note that precincts moved and there have been county level inaccuracies. Receipt:…
Turnout in DeKalb surpassed the 2014 turnout of 53%, reaching 63% in 2018. 2016 turnout was 76%. The precincts with the highest turnout fall in the Decatur/Avondale and Northlake area. Convington Hwy had the lowest turnout at 26%. #gapol #electiontwitter…
No precinct in DeKalb reached 2016 turnout. If so, Stacey Abrams would be governor. Precincts in red are those with the lowest performance compared to 2016. Note that precinct boundaries changed. Stonecrest didn't exist in 2016. #gapol #electiontwitter…
Read 7 tweets
On Wednesday Malaysian voters for the first time ever elected a ruling Coalition that was not Barisan Nasional. The Pakatan Harapan + Warisan Sabah Coalition flipped the PRU13 seat totals, winning 122/123 seats depending on independents. /1 of analysis #ElectionTwitter
Turnout was an important factor in many analyses - with the assumption being the closer to 85% it got, the better PH's chances. The figure was originally, 76%, but was adjusted up today to 82%, ruining my scale. Turnout was correlated positively with PH support. /2
I said there were four key factors in this election - so let us take a look at them. 1 - How would the GS/PAS vote split? Well, it was largely concentrated in strongholds. In the northern swing areas though, it was a 3-way race, and they spoiled BN in Kedah, and PH in Perak. /3
Read 14 tweets
The Malaysian election on Wednesday, which has largely gone under the radar – despite the competition. The brutal truth is Malaysia is malapportioned. Sarawak has 9 more seats then Selangor, despite having half the people. /1 of long story #PRU14 #MalaysiaDecides #ElectionTwitter
In addition to the malapportionment issues, the electoral commission is basically an arm of the ruling BN coalition. So, we get cases of old fashioned gerrymandering. Opposition seats tend to be horribly overpopulated, while government ones underpopulated. /2
Gerrymandering is easy in Malaysia because of the various ethnicities. The 2013 election was the culmination of a trend that saw Chinese become for the opposition what AA/Hispanic voters are for the Dems. Malays/Borneo Natives are more BN loyal. /3
Read 17 tweets
Ok guys, tonight we'll be doing a thread on last week's Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Democratic-aligned Rebecca Dallet beat GOP-supported Michael Screnock by almost 12%.
#SCOWIS #wopolitics #ElectionTwitter
Compared to Clinton, who narrowly lost, Dallet had a lot of upside. She performed better in 69 of 72 counties. Further, looking at partisan loyalty, nearly 2/3 of her municipalities (496 of 757) voted for Trump. She flipped 24 counties. Only 2 HRC towns went to Screnock.
In the 2016 #WISen race, Sen. Ron Johnson (R) won a rematch w/ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D). Feingold ran under HRC overall, but better in rural areas. As a result, there were fewer Johnson municipalities for Dallet to flip. She still flipped 432, as well as 18 counties.
Read 11 tweets
Tonight on #ElectionTwitter, since NC may re-re-redistrict it's Cong. districts, we're gonna be looking back at the Congressional map that was in place from 2002 to 2010. #ncpol #ncga
Why this map? 1) It was drawn by Dems, and represents something of a best-case for them and 2) I've always liked this map, and usually end up breaking statewide races down under its lines, anyway. #ncpol #ncga
The 2001 Congressional map held up pretty well for Democrats. For example, they went into the red wave of 2010 holding 8 of 13 seats. They lost the House popular vote by 9% in NC, but of their seats, only #NC02 flipped R, and only barely. #ncpol
Read 6 tweets
Well guys, tonight on #ElectionTwitter, we're gonna be looking at Orange County. It's California's third most populous county and will be critical for the 2018 midterms.
Why is Orange County so interesting? Well, to start, it was one the relatively few Romney -> Clinton counties. She won it by almost 9%, becoming the first Democrat to carry it since FDR in 1936.
Despite the county flipping to Clinton, a quartet of districts there (or at least partially contained within OC) reelected R incumbents to Congress: #CA39, #CA45, #CA48, and #CA49.
Read 19 tweets

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