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(Thread) Persuasion Politics:
As we enter into the next presidential campaign cycle, we must reconsider how we elect our politicians and who we elect to represent us.
#persuasion #politics #psychology #CambridgeAnalytica #Trump #Vote2020 #ElectionTwitter
thewhiterose898853410.wordpress.com/2019/02/04/per…
2‘‘Researchers say changing political attitudes can be understood in the context of 'cognitive dissonance,' a theory of behavioral psychology that asserts that people experience uneasiness after acting in a way that appears to conflict with their beliefs and preferences.'' #Vote
3''To minimize that mental discomfort, the theory posits, a person will adapt his or her attitude to better fit with or justify previous actions.’’ news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/…

#ElectionTwitter #Vote2020
Read 21 tweets
One of my 2018 New Year's resolution was to learn Tableau. Waited until Dec., but I did it!

I decided to map DeKalb County, GA's performance for the 2018 governor's race.

Note that precincts moved and there have been county level inaccuracies. Receipt: ajc.com/news/state--re…
Turnout in DeKalb surpassed the 2014 turnout of 53%, reaching 63% in 2018. 2016 turnout was 76%. The precincts with the highest turnout fall in the Decatur/Avondale and Northlake area. Convington Hwy had the lowest turnout at 26%. #gapol #electiontwitter

public.tableau.com/profile/larry.…
No precinct in DeKalb reached 2016 turnout. If so, Stacey Abrams would be governor. Precincts in red are those with the lowest performance compared to 2016. Note that precinct boundaries changed. Stonecrest didn't exist in 2016. #gapol #electiontwitter

public.tableau.com/profile/larry.…
Read 7 tweets
On Wednesday Malaysian voters for the first time ever elected a ruling Coalition that was not Barisan Nasional. The Pakatan Harapan + Warisan Sabah Coalition flipped the PRU13 seat totals, winning 122/123 seats depending on independents. /1 of analysis #ElectionTwitter
Turnout was an important factor in many analyses - with the assumption being the closer to 85% it got, the better PH's chances. The figure was originally, 76%, but was adjusted up today to 82%, ruining my scale. Turnout was correlated positively with PH support. /2
I said there were four key factors in this election - so let us take a look at them. 1 - How would the GS/PAS vote split? Well, it was largely concentrated in strongholds. In the northern swing areas though, it was a 3-way race, and they spoiled BN in Kedah, and PH in Perak. /3
Read 14 tweets
The Malaysian election on Wednesday, which has largely gone under the radar – despite the competition. The brutal truth is Malaysia is malapportioned. Sarawak has 9 more seats then Selangor, despite having half the people. /1 of long story #PRU14 #MalaysiaDecides #ElectionTwitter
In addition to the malapportionment issues, the electoral commission is basically an arm of the ruling BN coalition. So, we get cases of old fashioned gerrymandering. Opposition seats tend to be horribly overpopulated, while government ones underpopulated. /2
Gerrymandering is easy in Malaysia because of the various ethnicities. The 2013 election was the culmination of a trend that saw Chinese become for the opposition what AA/Hispanic voters are for the Dems. Malays/Borneo Natives are more BN loyal. /3
Read 17 tweets
Ok guys, tonight we'll be doing a thread on last week's Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Democratic-aligned Rebecca Dallet beat GOP-supported Michael Screnock by almost 12%.
#SCOWIS #wopolitics #ElectionTwitter
Compared to Clinton, who narrowly lost, Dallet had a lot of upside. She performed better in 69 of 72 counties. Further, looking at partisan loyalty, nearly 2/3 of her municipalities (496 of 757) voted for Trump. She flipped 24 counties. Only 2 HRC towns went to Screnock.
In the 2016 #WISen race, Sen. Ron Johnson (R) won a rematch w/ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D). Feingold ran under HRC overall, but better in rural areas. As a result, there were fewer Johnson municipalities for Dallet to flip. She still flipped 432, as well as 18 counties.
Read 11 tweets
Tonight on #ElectionTwitter, since NC may re-re-redistrict it's Cong. districts, we're gonna be looking back at the Congressional map that was in place from 2002 to 2010. #ncpol #ncga
Why this map? 1) It was drawn by Dems, and represents something of a best-case for them and 2) I've always liked this map, and usually end up breaking statewide races down under its lines, anyway. #ncpol #ncga
The 2001 Congressional map held up pretty well for Democrats. For example, they went into the red wave of 2010 holding 8 of 13 seats. They lost the House popular vote by 9% in NC, but of their seats, only #NC02 flipped R, and only barely. #ncpol
Read 6 tweets
Well guys, tonight on #ElectionTwitter, we're gonna be looking at Orange County. It's California's third most populous county and will be critical for the 2018 midterms.
Why is Orange County so interesting? Well, to start, it was one the relatively few Romney -> Clinton counties. She won it by almost 9%, becoming the first Democrat to carry it since FDR in 1936.
Despite the county flipping to Clinton, a quartet of districts there (or at least partially contained within OC) reelected R incumbents to Congress: #CA39, #CA45, #CA48, and #CA49.
Read 19 tweets

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