Thread by @nhazony

This map shows how Iranian air defense systems could be layered to protect its nuclear and ballistic missile sites and oil fields. Each circle marks the “kill zone” of an Iranian air defense system.

Can Israel penetrate Iran’s defense? 1/10🧵

Iran’s air defense consists of four S300 battalions complemented by dozens of Russian SA-22 and Iranian-made “Som-Khordad” and “Bavar 373” air defense systems, among the most advanced in the world. 2/10🧵

Each Iranian S300 battalion can shoot down fighter jets over 100 miles away, launching a dozen missiles at as many as six targets at a time. Israeli fighter jets would have difficulty outmaneuvering S300 missiles, which travel at over 5 times the speed of sound.
3/10🧵

If Israel knows the precise location of Iran’s S300s, Its fighter jets could avoid entering their “kill zone,” conducting attacks beyond the S300's reach. But even if Israel avoids the S300s, it will have a difficult time avoiding Iran’s SA22 and "Khordad" systems.
4/10🧵

Iran’s 15 short-range SA22 air defense systems are highly mobile. Carried by truck and quickly deployed, they can ambush fighter jets almost anywhere in Iran. Each system can fire a dozen missiles at jets as high as 40,000 feet. 5/10🧵

Iran’s defenses are further bolstered by several “Bavar 373,” Iran’s version of the S300. Iran also upgraded dozens of medium-range Soviet-era SA6 air defense systems, creating the deadly “Khordad”. All told, Iran’s air space is one of the best protected in the region. 6/10🧵

Even Israel’s F35 stealth fighters, mostly undetectable by Iran's systems, would struggle to inflict crippling damage to Iranian assets. A stealth fighter carrying too many bombs changes its geometrical shape, exposing its location to radars. 7/10🧵

But Air defense systems themselves are highly vulnerable. They rely on radar, which broadcasts waves into airspace in search of incoming jets. The moment a defense system turns on its radar, it exposes its location. Fighter jets can destroy it from a great distance. 8/10🧵

Iran lacks the most crucial component for air defense: Fighter jets.

Many of its jets are over 40 years old. Acquired in an age when Iran was friendly with both the US and Israel, they are no match for Israel’s jets. Iran's defense systems are defenseless. 9/10🧵

In April, Israel reportedly destroyed an S300 "Tombstone" radar in Isfahan, Iran, in response to Iran's ballistic missile attack. By destroying one of Iran's most advanced air defense systems Israel sent a clear message: Your air space is vulnerable. 10/10🧵