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Prune60 Profile picture
@Prune602
Oct 9 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
OMFG. They placed a grand total of

👉 0.005 Trillion Rubles TOTAL today

WHEN OFFERING NOTHING BUT VARIABLE RATE BONDS
So…

Q4 Goal was 2.4 Trillion Rubles

Auction Day 1 of 13 👉 0.0352 trillion rubles

Auction Day 2 of 13 👉 0.005 trillion rubles
I need to give you an idea of how bad this is.

The top left purple arrow is where their Q4 goal is Image
Zoom in Image
Zoom in more.

They placed half a square’s worth Image
On Q4 Auction Day 2 of 13

The offer of PK-29024 failed/was declared invalid

PK-29025:

Placement: 0.005 Trillion
Demand: 0.0441 Trillion
And they just told everyone that this plan…that is clearly failing…will somehow work in 2025 and beyond, when they try to borrow even higher sums of money
😬

investing.com/indices/russia… x.com/prune602/statu…Image
🫣

investing.com/indices/russia…Image

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More from @Prune602

Prune60 Profile picture
Oct 10
‼️ Update: Per usual, the longer businesses wait to leave Russia, the worse things get.

And they definitely just got much worse.

Under the new rules, the most you can expect to leave Russia with is

👉 5% of your assets value.
I’ve written on this topic multiple times, and each time, things have gotten worse.

Things had stabilized for some time before this announcement.

So what was the rule before now?
Business were required to sell their assets for AT LEAST a 50% discount of the value of the asset THEN pay 15% of the ASSETS VALUE as an exit tax directly to the federal government.

That meant that the BEST you could hope to leave with was

👉 35% of your total assets value
Read 16 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
Oct 10
‼️ Russia: “Primorye plans to ban migrants from working in most sectors of the economy”

This is one of the most mind boggling things that keeps happening.

kommersant.ru/doc/7214773Image
Russia suffers from MASSIVE labor shortages, to the point that they are pressuring both 14 year olds AND pensioners into the labor force.
And yet, migrants in Russia are increasingly discriminated against. They are both pressed into the military and deported.

With many countries again advising its citizens 👉 DON’T GO TO RUSSIA
Read 10 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
Oct 8
‼️ “"The worst crisis in 30 years": Russia's coal mining industry begins to collapse”

There are several things I want to point out about this situation

moscowtimes.ru/2024/10/07/sam…Image
First of all, this isn’t a “surprise” but rather a series of events that are leading to this outcome.

But…as it falls, I want to give you some things to think about because it’s possible it will lead to some unexpected outcomes EVERYWHERE in Russia.
So to begin with, Russian Railways wasn’t able to provide all the shipping that the coal companies required. The system was overloaded.

No Transport led to a shut down in production.

The railways & coal are heavily tied together.
Read 55 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
Oct 6
Here’s a rough idea of where Russia is after 3 Quarters + 1 Q4 Auction Day out of 13.

How they think they’ll meet these goals through normal lending is mind boggling.

And then they tell you they’ll borrow more in 2025 😵‍💫 Image
The purple arrows are the goals as stated per quarter from the Ministry of Finance. What they actually need is up in the air. It may be more than this 🤔
Remember we can the goal at the top of the old chart from the Amended Budget, and now they’re sneaking in a 3rd budget for 2024 right now
Read 8 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
Oct 6
‼️ Russia: “Private clinics in Tula region have begun to refuse to perform abortions after government demands”

There have been very few things that I’ve seen Russians push back on, and this is one of them.

moscowtimes.ru/2024/10/06/cha…Image
If you ever see footage of Putin having a meeting with a region head, one of the things I’ve seen Putin critique them on, is their birth rate.

The government knows that there actually things they could do to help increase it. But that takes money.
If you actually investigate, you see that the government is making no meaningful efforts to increase the birth rate. In fact, many of these indicators are getting worse.

Things like

- Healthcare
- Access to affordable housing
- Investments in schools
- etc
Read 8 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
Oct 5
Brief (hopefully) Update on the Russian Federal OFZ Bonds

I think this is going to be the final values for Q3, but I am waiting on one more report before I make a final confirmation. The reasons for the vagueness have to do with the Russian Min. of Finance 🙄

Chart = millions Image
In addition the reporting coming out of Russia on this hasn’t been great either. I haven’t added the new placements for that happened this week to chart yet, but i did already post what those were.

I’m going to focus on just this for right now.
So let’s talk about goals. Here are the goals that the Russian Ministry of Finance has missed (chart is in millions)

Q2: 1 Trillion Rubles during Q2
Q3: 1.5 Trillion Rubles during Q3

The new stated goal is to place 2.4 Trillion Rubles in Q4 Image
Read 19 tweets

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