Porter Stansberry Profile picture
Oct 9 15 tweets 4 min read Read on X
What I see in America today is a country on the cusp of a major collapse in our standard of living. You should always ignore the government’s manipulated data and look at real world indicators, like: the price of Ford F-150 and the price of gold. Look at standards that are universal, like life expectancy, infant mortality, and electrical usage per capita.
-- Life expectancy is in free fall in the U.S., even as it rebounds around the world, post Covid. In '23 it declined for an unprecedented 2nd year in a row, to 76. Worse, pediatric mortality is also rising, something that's never happened before.
-- Infant mortality is soaring, with to 5.6 deaths per 1,000 live births, up 60% (!) since 2021. This, to me, is the most devastating critiques of Obamacare. We spend more than anyone else in the world and still get terrible results. But will the government get out of the way? Never.
And here's the jaw-dropper: electricity consumption per capita (which is the best real-world measure of a country’s wealth) has fallen virtually every year since 1980 and, by 2020, had reached the same level as 1964.
Or, how about my favorite real-world indicator: the Ford F-150. How much better has government’s enormous and never-ending growth, made our lives? Let’s find out, using the reliable old Ford F-150.
In 1973, Ford launched a new version of it’s F-series of pickup trucks. Called the “Dentside” (because of a long styling indent down the side of the vehicle), this generation of F-series trucks offered a slew of innovations: a wider, flatter bed; the first extended cab design; and, most importantly, the first F-150 model
In 1973, the MSRP for an F-series truck was $2,800. With some options (and the undercarriage protection that dealer pushed on your wife) the actual retail cost was $3,000. In 1973, the median individual income in the U.S. in 1973 was $6,795; the median family income was $12,000. And the average weekly wage was $130. So, putting these figures into F-150 units:
· The average American worker was earning 2.2 F-150s every year.
· The average American household was earning 3 F-150s each year.
· The average American had to spend 20 weeks at work to buy a new truck (38% of his working year).
Capitalism incentivizes greater productivity, as entrepreneurs compete for market share by ruthlessly cutting costs and investing in innovations to lower the cost of production. There’s hardly a more globally competitive market than autos.
And Ford is one of the world’s leading R&D companies; it spends almost $10 billion per year on R&D today. Surely then, over the last 50 years, the real price of the Ford F-150 has gotten vastly less expensive, right? If our free-market system works, that is exactly what you should expect to see.
While economic theory says it’s price should have gone down over time, thanks to the government’s endless deficit spending and its paper money, a new F-150 costs $40,000 (that’s13x more than 50 years ago…). Today the median individual income in the U.S. is $60,000; the median family income is $77,000. And the average weekly wage (for men) is $1,227. So, putting these figures into F-150 units:
· The average American worker now earns 1.5 F-150s every year.
· The average American household was earning 1.9 F-150s each year.
· The average American had to spend 32 weeks at work to buy a new truck (61% of his working year).
Our purchasing power used to track directly in line with gains to productivity, because we have a free market and our money was real -- it was backed with gold. Today, there’s no such thing as lower prices – ever. That part of capitalism, the way the market enriches all of us, has been stolen by the government. All of the economy’s gains to productivity are inflated away by the government’s phony money. You believe you’re working for money. But you’re not. You’re holding an illusion.
Interesting fact that most people have forgotten. You couldn’t have paid for a 1973 Ford F-150 by selling some gold. Why not? Because private ownership of gold was illegal until December 31, 1974. On April 5, 1933, Franklin D Roosevelt (the Donald Trump of his era) signed executive order 6102, which banned individuals from owning gold bullion. The government didn’t want any competition for its monetary illusion. Don’t be surprised when the government decides to outlaw Bitcoin or even gold again, too. They will do whatever it takes to hold on to their monetary power. Just watch.
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More from @porterstansb

Oct 8
America is in big trouble, no matter who wins this election. Why? Consider these numbers. Direct transfer payments made by the Feds = $3.8 trillion. That’s 48% of all Fed spending. These payments go to 67m Americans. However, only about 70m Americans pay any meaningful amount of income tax and those taxes only raise $2.3 trillion. And that’s not the real problem…
America is $35 trillion in debt already. These debts are already so large, there’s no legitimate market-based way to finance the astronomical growth in transfer payments that lies ahead. I’m not talking about a crisis in 2040. I’m talking about a crisis by 2026. And still, that’s not the biggest problem…
The biggest problem is that as dependency grows and the baby boomers age, there’s fewer and fewer workers to support the system. Today are 134 million full-time workers in the U.S. That sounds like a lot, but it’s only about 40% of Americans. And, it includes the 25 million people who work for the government.
Read 17 tweets
Oct 8
America is in big trouble, and no matter who wins this election. Here are some numbers that matter a lot more than the polls. Direct Transfer payments by the Fed gov't = $3.8 trillion, 48% of all gov spending. Income taxes: $2.3 billion. These payments go to 67 million Americans.
Simple question: if we're paying more than we're collecting to 67 million people... what are the chances they vote to stop doing that...?
What about the people who work for the government? Is there any chance that people who depend on the government for their financial lives will vote to decrease its size? That's 25 million Americans, or about 20% of our entire workforce. And what about the people who don't work... ?
Read 11 tweets
Jan 23
I want to tell you what happened – a stock jumped 150% yesterday. The reason isn’t obvious. This is, without a doubt, the most valuable information anyone will ever give you for free in your life. Which is why you’ll ignore it.
Ironically, for maybe 3 or 4 people, this thread will change their lives forever – completely change everything for them financially. And even though that is undeniably true (as you’ll see) virtually everyone who reads this thread will ignore it
Yesterday shares of Sagimet (SGMT), more than doubled. The stock, which had closed under $7 the day before, closed over $18 yesterday. The shares are now up 150% since we recommended the stock ten days ago in the newest publication at Porter & Co, my private research company.
Read 28 tweets
Jan 19
St. Paul's Update Part III. I'd promised a "bombshell" disclosure today -- something I believe the school would find so embarrassing it would immediately be forced to fire St Paul's President Clark Wight.
But, first, I want to make a few things clear. My children have attended St. Paul's for a combined 17 years. We -- my ex-wife Andrea and my children -- love St. Paul's and the community of the school. And we have given generously to the school for many years.
The school has supported us and our children in many ways. And we are grateful. Likewise, being from out of state, it was the St. Paul's community that really made Baltimore home for us.
Read 18 tweets
Jan 9
A year ago @Porter_and_Co published a dire warning about a mega-cap American stock. This was the only mega cap stock we told investors to avoid. And it is no ordinary business. It is America’s most strategically important company. We said it would soon “collapse.”
Our January 27th 2023 headline? COMING SOON: THE BOEING COLLAPSE. How did we know? For the last 20 years there hasn’t been a company in America that’s embraced more bad ideas – from financial engineering to ESG – than Boeing.
In 1997, Boeing merged with fellow aerospace manufacturer McDonnell Douglas in a $13 billion stock swap. It was a match made in hell. Boeing was known for quality, and McDonnell was known for financial engineering – with a focus on cost cutting and the company’s share price.
Read 18 tweets
Oct 21, 2023
Last part... continuing my 2013-published The Wages of Obama's Sins my predictions about what Obama's unprecedented government spending, deficits, and monetary manipulation would mean for our country.
You might wonder, given the accuracy of my 2013 economic, political, and cultural predictions, what was I recommending investors do...? Buy capital efficient businesses, own some gold, and short Treasury bonds (short TLT over $100). Took a while for that bond short to pay off!
Specifically I recommended a slew of high quality P&C insurance companies ( $WRB, $AFG, $TRV, $CB) and Allegany (which was later purchased by Berkshire at a nice premium.)
Read 10 tweets

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