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Beefeater

@Beefeater_Fella

Oct 11

This is an update on my Rare Earth Elements report, and their importance to Russia’s aggression and invasion of Ukraine. This update includes up to date production and country specific information, in the second part of the thread.

Right let’s kick this off..

What are Rare Earth Elements and why are they relevant to the illegal war being conducted by Russia on Ukrainian sovereign territories? This video offers an easy to understand explanation of Rare Earth Elements, also known as R E E or REE.

Understanding the importance of REE and it’s connection to the seizure of territory in Ukraine, which is rich in REE deposits, might explain at least one underlying reason that Russia is seizing the most abundant resource deposits, to secure it’s own future as the fossil fuels which Russia has relied on for it’s principle revenue streams, which are now be drastically reduced due to a mixture of sanctions and increased uptake of green energy sources globally.

So why is Ukraine and Rare Earth Elements so important? Let’s begin by understanding a bit more about them.

The rare earth elements (REE) are a set of seventeen metallic elements that appear on the periodic table that few of us took an interest in at school. These include the fifteen lanthanides on the periodic table plus scandium and yttrium.

Rare earth elements are an essential part of many high-tech devices. Rare earth metals are used in multiple industries, including energy production, medical equipment, military defense systems, smartphones, computers, and electric vehicles. When REE’s are used with magnesium alloys, it is a vital element in the making of aircraft engines. You can also use REE’s for studio lighting in the film industry and for making permanent magnets.

Rare earth metals have luminescent properties, making them effective in producing fluorescent tubes and LED lights. REEs like yttrium, terbium, and europium can produce different colors in light bulbs, such as red, green, and blue. Due to their luminescent properties, these metals help make LCD screens, from smartphones to large television sets.

Lanthanum helps to make approximately half of all digital camera lenses, including those used in smartphones. Its alloys are a key component in the making of batteries for hybrid and electric cars. The rare earth elements in an EV are used in electric car motors rather than batteries. The most used is Neodymium, which is used in powerful magnets for speakers, hard drives, and electric motors. Dysprosium, and other REE’s are commonly used as additives in Neodymium magnets.

Other applications of REEs include the making of microphones, headphones, lasers, and a range of commercial and military products including satellites, radar, and sonar. Although using rare earth metals in electronics contributes a small part to the final product, the product can’t function without them.

Although the amount of REE used in a product may not be a significant part of that product by weight, value, or volume, the REE can be critical for the device to function. For example, magnets made of REE often represent only a small fraction of the total weight, but without them, the spindle motors and voice coils of desktops and laptops would not be possible.

The U.S. Geological Survey news release "Going Critical" explains: “Rare-earth elements are necessary components of more than 200 products - try and google the report for further info on REE’s uses and how important they are in your day to day life, without you even knowing about them!

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Next 👉 What is the most useful Rare Earth Elements?

What is the most useful Rare Earth Elements?

The answer is Neodymium. In the light REEs category, neodymium has the highest number of uses. For one, you can use it on mobile phones, medical equipment, and electric cars. It's the best rare metal for making permanent magnets. Neodymium magnets are strong and highly useful when weight and space are limiting factors.

They help make wind turbines and storage devices and hard disk drives. Moreover, you can also use them in automotive systems like audio speakers, power steering, power seats, and electric windows.

Ok, so you know about how important REE’s are for hundreds of everyday tech products, and key military equipment from communications devices to planes - who produces them?

The largest rare earth mining companies are from China, Australia, and the United States, owing to these countries generous rare earth mineral reserves and production. In 2023, these three nations collectively contributed over 90% of the global rare earth mineral production and have the highest market capitalization.

Extracting and producing rare earth elements requires higher capital investment than most traditional mining operations. China's success in this industry thus points to the country's significant advancements to stay independent in the commodity consumption sector.

China recognized the strategic value of these elements and invested heavily in building the infrastructure necessary to extract and process them as early as the 1980s. The country’s efforts have paid off and put it at the epicenter of REE production as of now.

With a history of aggressive production strategies and mineral wealth, China has maintained a formidable lead in rare earth mining. The country's mining companies capitalize on abundant resources and produce a sizable percentage of the world's mined rare earth metals.

China is the largest producer of rare earth minerals and accounts for over 70% of the worldwide output of REEs. The country saw 0.21 million metric tons annual yield of rare earth metals in 2022, and it dominates the market with its expansive mining operations.

Likewise, the advanced mining infrastructure and supportive government policies, have helped Australian mining companies extract and process REEs to meet the world's growing demand.

Rare earths processing occurs in two main stages. The first involves extracting the rare earths from ores containing other minerals and concentrating them into a mixed rare earth concentrate or carbonate. The second is a more complex stage that separates the rare earths into individual oxide compounds. From there the products are turned into metals used to produce magnets.

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Next 👉 Global dynamics of REE

What are the Global Dynamics of Rare Earth Element Mining?

In 1993, 38 percent of world production of REEs was in China, 33 percent was in the United States, 12 percent was in Australia, and five percent each in Malaysia and India. Several other countries, including Brazil, Canada, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, made up the remainder.

15 years later in 2008, China accounted for more than 90 percent of world production of REEs, and 18 years later in 2011, China accounted for 97 percent of world production. By the end of 2022, China has a dominant hold on the market—with 60% of global production and 85% of processing capacity.

As China's mine throughput of rare earth minerals accounts for the majority of the world's total production, this heavy reliance on China for REEs raises critical supply chain concerns for the rest of the world. Other nations, mainly the US, are trying to pick up pace in this mining sector.

Currently the United States' 78% rare earth imports are from China and there's a rising geopolitical tension between the West and China. In the event of a massive deterioration or even conflict between the US and China, the supply of REE’s would end overnight which would have a massive, possible catastrophic impact on the global economy.

Beginning in 1990 and beyond, supplies of REEs became an issue as the Government of China began to change the amount of the REEs that it allows to be produced and exported. The Chinese Government also begun to limit the number of Chinese and Sino-foreign joint-venture companies that could export REEs from China."

In July 2023, China announced that it would impose export restrictions on #gallium and #germanium, these REE’s are indispensable in the production of strategically important products such as electric vehicles, microchips and some weapons systems.

It is possibly more of a warning than a full-fledged response to Beijing's restrictions, that the US and its allies have imposed trade restrictions of Chinese imports of advanced microchips?

It was a demonstration of Beijing's control over the supply chain of dozens of materials that Washington has identified as critical to its economic and national security.

Control that the dictator and kleptocrat Xi Jinping can use at any time, and this may arguably explain the west’s ambivalence to escalate the issue around the Genocide of the #Uyghur and #Tibet populations with over a million held in concentration camps today.

Does this force the West to face an inconvenient truth?

China is the largest and cheapest supplier of many indispensable materials for "clean technology". The country accounts for about 90% of the production of rare earth elements, at least 80% of all stages of the production of solar panels and 60% of the production of wind turbines and batteries for electric vehicles .

And the production of some materials for batteries and more niche products is controlled almost entirely by China alone. Lithium is also key ingredient in batteries for electric cars and renewable power storage, making it a critical commodity for the energy transition to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

Most of the world’s lithium supply is currently produced in Australia and processed in China. That could change during the next decade though, as new technology such as direct lithium extraction, or DLE, helps ramp up production of this key resource from brine, according to Hugo Nicolaci, an analyst in Goldman Sachs Research.

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Next 👉 REE and the war in Ukraine

Read 17 tweets

Beefeater

@Beefeater_Fella

Oct 6

The swing to the far-right is a growing trend in Europe and abroad.

What distinguishes these parties or are they all more or less the same? Do far right parties differ much from country to country? What is driving the move by nations to move towards the far right?

These and other considerations are explored in this thread, and hopefully a balanced view on the rise of the far right and nationalism across the globe.

In the past decade and more, Europe has witnessed a significant swing to the far-right in several countries, a trend that reflects broader political and societal shifts.

This movement is characterized by the rise of populist, nationalist, and anti-immigrant parties that reject traditional liberal values and prioritize a more exclusive, identity-based politics. The far-right’s resurgence is driven by a combination of economic, cultural, and political factors, with different manifestations across various countries.

While common themes run through far-right movements, such as opposition to immigration, anti-elite rhetoric, and skepticism towards the European Union, the specifics of each party’s policies reflect their unique national contexts.

Here's an overview of the swing to the far-right in Europe and what distinguishes these parties:

🥕Key Factors Behind the Rise of the Far Right 🥕

👉 Immigration and National Identity

One of the most consistent drivers of the far-right surge across Europe is opposition to immigration, particularly from non-European countries, and more recently since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia - the alignment towards Russia and Vladimir Putin and his regime.

Many far-right parties capitalize on fears about cultural dilution, loss of national identity, and the challenges of integrating large numbers of migrants. The 2015 refugee crisis, where over a million asylum seekers entered Europe, significantly boosted support for these parties, as many voters perceived mainstream parties as unable to handle the crisis effectively.

The indicted war criminal Vladimir Putin, has weaponized migration as part of his broader strategy to destabilize Europe and weaken Western unity. This tactic involves using the movement of migrants and refugees, particularly toward Europe, as a geopolitical tool to create political, social, and economic pressure on countries that oppose Russian interests.

Russia’s strategy of hybrid warfare involves using a blend of conventional military power, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, energy dependency, and other tools to achieve its geopolitical goals.

Weaponising migration fits within this framework, as it aims to create domestic crises in target countries without direct military confrontation.

The goal is often to exploit the vulnerabilities of open, democratic societies and use humanitarian crises, such as migration, to fuel divisions and political polarization.

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Next 👉 Examples of migration’s weaponisation

Examples of migration weaponisation include:

💥 Syrian Civil War and the 2015 Refugee Crisis - Russia’s indiscriminate bombing campaigns, especially in areas held by anti-Assad rebels, drove millions of Syrians to flee the country, many of whom sought refuge in Europe.

Russia orchestrated the refugee crisis specifically to destabilize Europe, its actions in Syria certainly contributed to the conditions that led to mass displacement. Additionally, Russia’s diplomatic support for Assad has prolonged the war, which continues to generate migration flows.

💥 In 2021, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, in concert with Putin, deliberately orchestrated a migrant crisis by encouraging refugees from the Middle East, Africa, and Asia to travel to Belarus and then pushing them toward the borders of EU countries like Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia.

Thousands of migrants attempted to cross into the EU through these borders, creating a humanitarian crisis and straining relations between Belarus and its European neighbors.

Lukashenko’s actions was a retaliation for EU sanctions imposed after Belarus's 2020 elections, which were widely regarded as fraudulent. Russia supported or tacitly approved of this strategy, seeing it as a way to pressure the EU and create further divisions within the bloc.

💥 In addition to direct actions, Russia has been accused of using disinformation campaigns to inflame fears and anxieties about migration within Europe.

Russian state media outlets like RT and Sputnik have frequently highlighted stories of crime and social unrest linked to migrants, particularly from Muslim-majority countries, in an effort to stoke anti-immigrant sentiment.

These narratives are often amplified by social media, which can lead to a rise in xenophobia and support for far-right political parties.

By sowing discord over immigration, Russia seeks to exploit one of Europe’s most divisive issues.

Migration has been a key factor in the political fragmentation of the EU, with countries like Hungary and Poland adopting hardline anti-immigration stances, while others, like Germany and Sweden, have promoted more open policies.

This internal division weakens the EU’s ability to present a united front on other issues, including Russia’s actions in Ukraine and its energy policies.

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Next 👉 The implications for Europe

Implications for European Politics:

👉 The use of migration as a political weapon has had significant consequences for Europe:

Rise of Populism and Far-Right Parties: Migration has been a key driver of the rise of populist and far-right parties across Europe, many of which advocate for tougher immigration controls, nationalism, and Euroskepticism.

These parties often align with Russia’s strategic interests by advocating for a weakening of the EU, closer ties with Russia, and opposition to Western sanctions on Russia.

EU Divisions: Migration has exacerbated divisions within the EU, with some countries refusing to accept refugees or migrants, while others, like Germany, have pushed for burden-sharing. These internal rifts have weakened the EU’s ability to present a cohesive policy on issues like immigration, border control, and foreign policy.

Humanitarian Crises: Weaponized migration also creates humanitarian crises, with migrants often used as pawns in geopolitical conflicts.

The 2021 Belarus border crisis, for example, saw thousands of migrants stranded in harsh conditions, with EU countries reluctant to let them in, while Belarus used them as leverage.

👉 Russia’s Goals in Weaponizing Migration:

Putin’s broader goals in potentially weaponizing migration include:

💥 Weakening EU Unity: By exploiting divisions over immigration, Russia aims to weaken the EU’s ability to function as a coherent political and economic bloc. A divided EU is less likely to take strong, coordinated action against Russia on issues like sanctions or support for Ukraine.

💥 Destabilizing European Governments: Migration is a highly polarizing issue in many European countries. By fueling anti-immigrant sentiment, Russia can help destabilize governments that are seen as adversarial or too closely aligned with Western interests.

💥 Diverting Attention from Russia’s Actions: By creating crises related to migration, Russia can divert attention away from its own aggressive actions, such as its annexation of Crimea, interference in Ukraine, or domestic human rights abuses.

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Next 👉 Return to the general explanations

Read 11 tweets

Beefeater

@Beefeater_Fella

Oct 6

Ferrero has been operating in Russia since 1995. For the last 10 years, the company’s total investments in the development of its Vladimir factory and the entire confectionery business in Russia has amounted to €250 million.

In the case of its Vladimir factory, in recent years it has become one of the largest producers of chocolate in Russia, accounting for 30% of the entire chocolate production in the country.

Ferrero confectionery brands have traditionally enjoyed great popularity among Russian consumers.

That was also due to big marketing campaigns, conducted by the company for the popularisation of its products in the local market during the 1990’s and at the beginning of 2000’s.

In 2018 - four years after the illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia, the global confectionery group Ferrero invested €80 million in its expanding Russian confectionery business. As part of its plans, the majority of funds are considered to be focused on the expansion of the company’s flagship factory in Russia, located in the Sobinsky area in the Vladimir, Central Russia.

Following the lines of other businesses who did not want to lose their market share over the war in Ukraine like Unilever - Nutella opted for the tried and tested corporate white-washing technique.

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Next 👉 Nutella’s corporate whitewashing of its support of Russian’s torture, rape and murder in Ukraine.

The corporate whitewashing of its supporting genocide in Ukraine.

Following Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the company adopted the corporate ruse to remain in Russia. It issued this statement:

“We will reassess our decisions on a regular basis as we continue to closely monitor the impacts of this dramatic and rapidly evolving situation, doing our utmost to safeguard people’s safety, while continuing to support colleagues in local markets who face a lot of uncertainty.

“From the outset, our top priority has been to ensure the safety of our employees, associates, and their families. We have been helping them to reach safety zones, providing them with emergency cash, fuel for their cars, food, medicines, basic supplies, and shelter.”

“Following the temporary closure of our offices in Ukraine, we have decided to temporarily pause all non-essential activities and development plans in Russia, in line with most other food companies. This includes promotions and advertising,” Ferrero said in a statement posted on its website.

According to the website of Ferrero’s local subsidiary in Russia, the company has an office in Moscow and a factory 120 miles east in Vladimir.

Ferrero initially suspended non-essential activities in Russia, including advertising, promotions, and development plans. However, the company later revised its statement to say that all non-essential activities and development plans in Russia remained on hold.

Nutella ingredients come from many countries, including Brazil, France, Malaysia, Nigeria, and Turkey. Nutella is also manufactured in factories in North America, South America, and European countries outside of Italy.

Leave-Russia .org report Nutella’s position in 2023 as:

“May 20, 2023
Initially suspended operations in Russia. The company's statement regarding Ukraine contained the following sentence: "we have decided to temporarily suspend all non-essential activities and development plans in Russia, like most other food companies".

Later this part of the statement was revised to "All non-essential activities and development plans in Russia remain on hold ”, avoiding comparison with “other food companies”. The vast majority of exports are direct.

Comparing total exports for the year beginning March 1, 2022 versus a year earlier by value, the growth is 33% ($120 million vs. $90 million). The 33% increase in value was not enough to maintain the market share of exported chocolate: it fell from 18.2% to 16.9%.”

October 2024.

Nutella’s production has continued, and increased in Russia, the business continues to support the genocidal regime with billions of Rubles paid in taxes to support the regime and its military aggression. The company continues to support the needs of all fun loving employees who also support the war in Ukraine.

Apparently supporting russians in their hour of need during their difficult and emotional times of invading a neighbour and conducting a genocide - are way more important than taking a principle stand on supporting the regime in Russia. And losing market share.

Let’s be emphatically clear.

Nutella is a sponsor of war and a supporter of the genocide of Ukrainians.

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Beefeater

@Beefeater_Fella

Oct 2

⚠️Russian demographic time bomb ⚠️

Putin has just banned the 2029 census. To understand why, this thread will explain where Russia is at on demographics and what reason Putin might have to ban a national census in Russia. In summary the statistics show that according to the latest Rosstat vital statistics and the World Population Review in from 2019 (three years before the illegal invasion of Ukraine).

For context, Putin has been in power since 2000, and has overseen the creation of a demographic time bomb. Russia is a multinational state, home to over 193 ethnic groups nationwide. In the 2021 Census, nearly 72% of the population were ethnic Russians and approximately 19% of the population were ethnic minorities.

According to the United Nations, Russia's immigrant population is the world's third largest, numbering over 11.6 million; most of whom are from other post-Soviet states.

The demographic tragedy is unfolding in Russia. In the period 2020 - 2023 the country had lost around 2m more people than it would ordinarily have done, as a result of war, disease and exodus.

The life expectancy of Russian males aged 15 fell by almost five years, to the same level as in Haiti. The number of Russians born in April 2022 was no higher than it had been in the months of Hitler’s occupation. And because so many men of fighting age are dead or in exile, women now outnumber men by at least 10m.

War is not the sole—or even the main—cause of these troubles, but it has made them all worse. According to Western estimates, 650,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the past year.

Estimates of between 1,000,000 and 2,000,000 mostly young, educated people and middle class workers have evaded the meat-grinder by fleeing abroad.

Even if Russia had no other demographic problems, losing so many in such a short time would be painful. As it is, the losses of war are placing more burdens on a shrinking, ailing population.

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⚠️ The history pre-Ukraine invasion of Russia entering a doom loop of demographic decline ⚠️

The roots of Russia’s crisis go back 30 years. The country reached peak population in 1994, with 149m people. The total has since zig-zagged downwards. It was 145m in 2021 (that figure, from the un, excludes the 2.4m people of Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed and de-populated the Ukrainian population, and replaced them with Russian citizens in 2014 and incorporated into its national accounts).

According to 2023 UN projections, the total could be just 120m in 50 years, if current patterns persist. That would make Russia the 15th-most-populous country in the world, down from sixth in 1995.

Population decline is not unique to Russia: most post-communist states have seen dips, though not like this. Their declines have been slow but also manageable.

Russia’s population in recent decades has seen a precipitous slump, then a partial recovery (thanks to a period of high immigration from parts of the ex-Soviet Union and more generous child allowances after 2007), followed by a renewed fall.

According to the state statistics agency, in 2020 and 2021 combined the country’s population declined by 1.3m; deaths outstripped births by 1.7m. The decline was largest among ethnic Russians, whose number, the census of 2021 said, fell by 5.4m in 2010-21.

Their share of the population fell from 78% to 72%. So much for the indicted war criminal Putin’s boast to be expanding the Russki mir (Russian world).

As of the 2021 census, the population of Russia was 147.2 million. It is the most populous country in Europe, and the ninth-most populous country in the world, with a population density of 8.5 inhabitants per square kilometre (22 inhabitants/sq mi). As of 2020, the overall life expectancy in Russia at birth was 71.54 years (66.49 years for males and 76.43 years for females).

From 1992 to 2012, and again since 2016, Russia's death rate has exceeded its birth rate, which has been called a demographic crisis by analysts. Consequently, the nation has an ageing population, with the median age of the country being 40.3 years.

In 2009, Russia recorded annual population growth for the first time in fifteen years; during the mid-2010s, Russia had seen increased population growth due to declining death rates, increased birth rates and increased immigration.

Between 2020 and 2021, prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia's population had undergone its largest peacetime decline in recorded history, due to excess deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, at least 1 million Russians fled the country as a result of the invasion.

All this began before the war and reflects Russia’s appalling covid pandemic. The official death toll from the disease was 388,091, which would be relatively low; but The Economist estimates total excess deaths in 2020-23 at between 1.2m and 1.6m.

That would be comparable to the number in China and the United States, which have much larger populations. Russia may have had the largest covid death toll in the world after India, and the highest mortality rate of all, with 850-1,100 deaths per 100,000 people.

If you add pandemic mortality to the casualties of war and the flight from mobilisation, Russia lost between 1.9m and 2.8m people in 2020-23 on top of its normal demographic deterioration. That would be even worse than during the disastrous early 2000s, when the population was falling by roughly half a million a year.

What might that mean for Russia’s future? Demography is not always destiny; and Russia did for a while begin to reverse its decline in the mid-2010s. The impact of population change is often complex, as Russia’s military mobilisation shows. The decline in the number of ethnic Russians of call-up age (which is being raised from 18-27 to 21-30) will make it harder for the armed forces to carry out the regular spring draft, which begins in April.

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Such complications notwithstanding, the overall effect of demographic decline will be to change Russia profoundly—and for the worse. Most countries which have suffered population falls have managed to avoid big social upheavals. Russia may be different. Its population is falling unusually fast and may drop to 130m by mid-century.

The decline is associated with increased misery: the life expectancy at birth of Russian males plummeted from 68.8 in 2019 to 64.2 in 2021, partly because of covid, partly from alcohol-related disease. Russian men now die six years earlier than men in Bangladesh and 18 years earlier than men in Japan.

And Russia may not achieve what enables other countries to grow richer as they age: high and rising levels of education. Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographer at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, argues that the country presents a peculiar combination of third-world mortality and first-world education.

It has some of the highest rates of educational attainment among over-25s in the world. But the exodus of well-educated young people is eroding this advantage. According to the communications ministry, 10% of it workers left the country in 2022. Many were young men. Their flight is further skewing Russia’s unbalanced sex ratio, which in 2021 meant there were 121 females older than 18 for every 100 males.

The demographic doom loop has not, it appears, diminished Putin’s craving for conquest. But it is rapidly making Russia a smaller, worse-educated and poorer country, from which young people flee and where men die in their 60s. The invasion has been a human catastrophe—and not only for Ukrainians.

Russia in 2019:

👉 There was one birth every 22 seconds

👉 There was one death every 13 seconds

👉 There was a net loss of one person every 30 seconds.

⚠️ Note: this excludes the hundreds of thousands of Russians sent to their slaughter in Ukraine in the period 24 February 2022 and 01 October 2024.

⚠️ This also excludes a massive reduction in birth rates in the same period to 01 October 2024.

2024 Update:

The latest population estimates from live population .com - in 2024 are as follows:

👉 Births this year: 13,291,470 vrs Deaths this year 15,996,819

👉 Births today 3,860 vrs Deaths today 4650.

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Next 👉

Read 7 tweets

Beefeater

@Beefeater_Fella

Sep 28

7.5 TRILLION RUBLES IN OIL AND GAS REVENUE FOR FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2024.

This thread highlights the failures of Russian oil sanctions and the price cap, and the example of a Latvian National, Aleksejs Haļavins - who is currently operating out of Dubai and circumventing oil trade sanctions on behalf of Russia, significantly increasing Russia’s revenue to fund the genocide in Ukraine.

Reuters reports that Russia's oil and gas revenues surged by 41% in the first half of 2024. Putin is successfully circumventing the democratic world’s price cap on Russian oil using a “shadow fleet” of tankers to work around international sanctions. The first 8 months of oil and gas sales for Russia is comparable to the level of revenue from 2022.

The 7.5 Trillion Rubles figure, is according to the Russian Ministry of Finance in its latest results publication.

Of course, one needs to treat any data released from Putin’s regime with skepticism - he declared economic and financial data in Russia a State Secret and has since authorised opaque and manipulated results to bolster the image of Russia, designed to give the Russian people and the rest of the world the impression that the russian economy is strong, while hiding specific trade and income data that would indicate otherwise.

What is likely though, is there is an increase in revenue from fossil fuels for Russia, despite the sanctions and price caps imposed by the European Union, the G7 and others.

Another conclusion that one can make is around increasing revenues with inflation in Russia. The higher the inflation, the more expensive things get, the more the regime makes on taxes such as VAT. It is estimated that half of Russia’s oil and gas revenue, funds the war in Ukraine for Putin.

👉 Limiting Russia’s revenue on Oil:

Russian seaborne oil, by EU owned and registered or insured ships - is subject to a cap of $60 per barrel for crude oil and $100 for refined. The cost price for Russia crude, excluding state extraction taxes and transportation - is estimated at sub $15 per barrel. There are two fundamental flaws in both sanctions and the price cap approach by t he EU and G7.

👉 The price cap allows a significant level of profit for Russia in every barrel.

👉The price cap only applies to oil shipped on EU owned or registered vessels. Russia bypasses this by expanding the size of its shadow fleet, which can ship oil well over the price cap, increasing its revenues per barrel.

The EU and G7 have allowed Greek shipping magnates to sell their ageing tankers to Russia to circumvent sanctions, making a few shipping owners incredibly rich - while giving Putin what he needs to circumvent sanctions.

This pressure on carriers and insurers was the cornerstone of the “price ceiling” strategy. When faced with the problem of regulating transactions between Russian oil sellers and buyers in countries like China or India, the G7 group of economically advanced democracies — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States — proposed leveraging the transport and insurance sector, which is dominated by companies heavily dependent on Western regulatory systems.

The assumption was that these companies, fearful of facing legal consequences in the Western markets where they earn much of their revenue, would refuse to handle Russian oil sold above the “ceiling.”

Russia's response was straightforward: they simply transferred tankers bought from “legitimate” carriers to “gray” and “black” companies registered in opaque jurisdictions. These shell companies operate outside the realm of Western regulatory pressure, as they do not participate in the open market.

Their sole purpose is to transport Russian oil while evading sanctions. Insurance for these shipments isn't provided by reputable global firms, but by dubious entities.

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Next 👉 The EU and G7 Price Cap has now FAILED

👉 The EU and G7 have FAILED to enforce the price caps.

One example for this is allowing the EU to trade in Russian oil above the price cap. One of the largest buyers of Russian oil above the price cap is from Latvian national Aleksejs Halavins - who has 3 Dubai based businesses conducting this trade.

Black Pearl Energy Trading LLC, which Halavins owns and runs - with affiliate companies OGC Shipping LLC and Conmar Maritime.

In 2023, Black Pearl and Halavins bought circa 38 million barrels of Russian oil from Surgutneftegaz at an average price of $82 per barrel, which is $22 per barrel above the price cap. In the first 5 months of 2024 - Black Pearl Energy Trading bought over 20.6 million barrels for an average price of $83.7 per barrel - $23.7 per barrel over the price cap.

Latvian citizen Aleksejs Haļavins, as two entities affiliated with the businessman are known to have purchased oil from Russian oil company Surgutneftegaz at a price above the cap, bringing the Russian corporation an additional $1.4 billion. Other companies linked with Haļavins operated tankers carrying oil from Russia to India and China.

Notably, Israel has accused one of these tankers of supplying oil to Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iran's Quds Force. The Insider traced Haļavins’s connection to Russian national Mikhail Silantiev, the former head of Promsyrioimport — a state-owned company sanctioned on two counts: for supplying fuel to Crimea and for supplying oil to Syria.

As a result, Surgutneftegaz alone received roughly $1.4 billion more in revenue than it would have by selling its oil at the price cap rate. The total yearly additional revenue to the Russian budget from oil sales bypassing the cap is estimated at $7-11 billion — a significant boost to the Russian war machine.

These figures were published by The Insider.

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In a 2022 interview for YoungShip Cyprus, Haļavins presented himself as the “general manager” of Sparta Shipmanagement and “chair of the board of directors and ultimate beneficial owner” of the OGC Group. On LinkedIn, he was actively hiring commercial fleet operators in Dubai, providing his email for communication.

Sparta Shipmanagement is registered in Cyprus at the same address as Lagosmarine Ltd. Both companies are now managed and formally owned by the same Greek national. Lagosmarine also shares the address with a host of shell companies that own the tankers Clyde Noble, Sagar Violet, and Caroline Bezengi, according to the International Maritime Organization.

As follows from records on , these vessels regularly navigate between the Russian ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Kozmino and ports in India and China. According to customs documents, the same routes were used to move oil sold to Dubai-based companies linked to Haļavins.

Incidentally, Israel accuses one of Lagosmarine's tankers, the Fuga Bluemarine, of transporting Iranian oil for the Quds Force and Hezbollah, as follows from a document signed by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

On his LinkedIn profile, Haļavins identifies himself as the beneficiary and CEO of the Conrad Management Company. The Insider has obtained several residency permits issued in the UAE to employees of the Russian state-owned company Promsyrioimport. In some cases, Conrad Management Company is listed as the “sponsor” for these individuals' stays in the UAE.

FGUP Promsyrioimport (ФГУП «Промсырьеимпорт») is a company under the jurisdiction of the Russian Ministry of Energy that handles maritime shipments of oil and petroleum products.

This company is no stranger to sanctions violations: even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Promsyrioimport was sanctioned by Kyiv for supplying fuel to Crimea, and in 2018, the firm was sanctioned by the U.S. for its role in facilitating Iranian oil deliveries to Syria, bypassing restrictions imposed by Washington.

At present, details about Promsyrioimport's management are concealed in the Russian registry. Mikhail Silantiev previously held the position of the company’s acting CEO. Border crossing records indicate that Silantiev has made numerous trips between Russia and the UAE in recent months.

If this oil was shipped on EU, G7 or Norway owned vessels - that would be an outright breach of the sanctions. However if this oil was shipped by vessels in the Russian shadow fleet it would not.

👉 The obvious gaps in regulatory enforcement suggest that these authorities are failing to utilize tools readily available to investigative journalists — to say nothing of the more advanced financial intelligence methods that state services have at their disposal.

The UK’s official estimate suggests that Putin’s “shadow fleet” is made up of approximately 600 ships that transport an average of 1.7 million barrels of oil per day. The Insider connected Haļavins to companies owning and operating tankers that deliver Russian oil to Indian and Chinese ports.

Ships sold to Russia by western shipping companies for massively over-valued amounts, are almost all ageing vessels - 390 of them are known to be over 16 - 20 years old. The ships represent a danger to maritime and ecological safety, they are poorly maintained and improperly maintained - so using them to ship Russia crude oil by the Latvian trader exposes the world to a risk of an oil pollution catastrophe.

Green Peace have advised that a disaster from a shadow fleet vessel in the Baltics is just a matter of time. Aside from that - the fact that a Latvian trader is profiting off Russian oil is very concerning. Will the Latvian Aleksejs Halavins be traceable when that happens, and will he fund the clean up?

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Next 👉 A call for action for the UK, G7 and EUsparta-shipmanagement.com
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Beefeater

@Beefeater_Fella

Sep 18

Armenia exits the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CTSO) .

This thread is offers some context, history, Ukraine related relevance and a chronology of recent events leading to Armenia rejecting the Russian led CTSO.

👉 A little bit about Armenia..

Armenia is an ancient country. Its history dates back to well before the Bronze Age and traces the beginnings of civilization. Armenia is the first country to adopt Christianity as its state religion. Today, 97% of the Armenia’s population are Christians, and Armenia has one of the most beautiful churches in the world.

The Armenian capital, Yerevan, is one of the world’s oldest inhabited cities. Founded in 782 BC by King Argishti, it is even older than Rome. There are six UNESCO World Heritage Sites in Armenia: Haghpat Monastery, Sanahin Monastery, Echmiadzin cathedral and churches, Zvartnots archaeological site, Geghard Monastery and Azat Valley.

Mining in Armenia is concentrated around the extraction of metals iron, copper, molybdenum, lead, zinc, gold, silver, antimony, and aluminum.

Armenia is a landlocked country located in the South Caucasus region of Eurasia. Armenia is bordered by Georgia in the north, the Republics of Azerbaijan and Artsakh in the east, Nakhchiva (Azerbaijan's exclave) Iran in the south, and Turkey in the west. Armenia occupies a land area of 11,484 square miles.

The population of the country is estimated at 2.9 million. Until independence, the economy of Armenia heavily depended on industry. The industry relied on outside sources. The main domestic energy source is hydroelectric. The country’s vast majority of energy is produced with imported fuel from countries such as Russia.

Natural resources play an important role in boosting the economy of Armenia. The natural resources are used domestically and are also exported. Geographically, Armenia is mountainous. This geographical peculiarity renders the country rich in mineral resources.

The mineral resources of Armenia include iron, zinc, aluminum, copper, molybdenum, gold, lead, silver and antimony. The country is also rich in other rare and hard to find metals.

Armenia possesses some of the world’s most diverse nonmetallic minerals including tuff, zeolites, nephelite syenites, perlite, scoria, marble, pumice stone, and basalts. The industrial minerals found in the country are cement, diatomite, limestone, and gypsum.

The mining industry is, therefore, one of the principal areas of Armenia’s economy. In Armenia, 24.8% of the population lived below the national poverty line in 2022.

Armenia is the 7th safest country in the world, according to NUMBEO. The analytical platform's Crime Rate and Safety Index by Country report has ranked Armenia 7th out of 146 countries, while the city of Yerevan is 15th out of 329 cities.

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Next 👉 What is the CTSO?

👉 What is the CTSO?

The CSTO is a Russia-dominated alliance of former Soviet states that have pledged to protect one another in the event of an attack.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is an intergovernmental military alliance in Eurasia consisting of six post-Soviet states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan, formed in 2002.

The Collective Security Treaty has its origins in the Soviet Armed Forces, which was replaced in 1992 by the United Armed Forces of the Commonwealth of Independent States, and was then itself replaced by the successor armed forces of the respective independent states.

Similar to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance, Article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty (CST) establishes that an aggression against one signatory would be perceived as an aggression against all.

The 2002 CSTO charter reaffirmed the desire of all participating states to abstain from the use or threat of force. Signatories are prohibited from joining other military alliances.

The CSTO holds yearly military command exercises for the CSTO nations to have an opportunity to improve inter-organizational cooperation. The largest of such exercises was held in Southern Russia and central Asia in 2011, consisting of more than 10,000 troops and 70 combat aircraft.

On 4 February 2009, an agreement to create the Collective Rapid Reaction Force (KSOR) was reached by five of the seven members, with plans finalized on 14 June. The force is intended to be used to repulse military aggression, conduct anti-terrorist operations, fight transnational crime and drug trafficking, and neutralize the effects of natural disasters.

Belarus and Uzbekistan initially refrained from signing on to the agreement. Belarus did so because of a trade dispute with Russia, and Uzbekistan due to general concerns. Belarus signed the agreement the following October, while Uzbekistan has never done so.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) maintains a peacekeeping force that has been deployed to areas of conflict, including Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The force is composed of troops from member states and is designed to provide stability and security in the region.

On 6 October 2007, CSTO members agreed to a major expansion of the organization that would create a CSTO peacekeeping force that could deploy under a United Nations mandate or without one in its member states. The expansion would also allow all members to purchase Russian weapons at the same price as Russia.

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Next 👉 A potted history of Putin squeezing Armenia

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