Thread by @MartinSkold2

I talk about this a lot, so once more:

A Possible US Grand Strategy According To Martin

(This is intended to be as realistic as possible, but some amount of “strategic reach” and problem-solving on the fly is obviously required)

https://twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/1844750883206070482

***China***
—Make China the top priority
—Shift the carriers to the Western Pacific, except for one group which I’ll get to
—Do the same with the Air Force

—Start a major diplomatic effort to save Taiwan, and/or, if that proves unsuccessful, to prepare for a post-Taiwan coalition (failing -that-, start getting ready to repel boarders on US possessions across the Pacific)

—Tie USAF deployments to a strategy crafted based on the above

—Find a way to rhetorically downplay our commitment to RoK -unless and until- they both make a commitment to our theatre strategy -and- can help guarantee sea and air access in a fight (and perhaps withdraw US Forces Korea so that they are not sitting ducks)

(In effect, we’re playing diplomatic hardball - help us or we can’t help you, and the longer the nonsense goes on the less there is to work with)

Europe
—Tell Europe, loudly and publicly (so it’s not seen as reversible) that the US will no longer be the primary guarantor to NATO in a crisis (I’d say get out of NATO, but that ain’t happening)

—Pursue a ceasefire in Ukraine on the most advantageous terms possible, employing all available bargaining leverage and using brinksmanship to force the issue if necessary

—Do not admit Ukraine to NATO; instead work with the Nordics and the Intermarium to increase defense cooperation along the Russian frontier and to kickstart munitions production in the countries behind the front line

—Pull the Army out of Europe entirely
—Cut the Army’s budget by a third or more

—Temporarily reprogram some of the savings to arms production for a military aid program to Ukraine, Poland, Sweden, and Finland (aircraft in particular), and tell them diplomatically that the aid ends quite soon (this will also help kickstart the defense industrial base)

—Offload as much of the Army’s heavy equipment onto Ukraine and Poland as possible (do it -after- a ceasefire is obtained so that it’s not wasted in futile assaults)

—If we’re out of NATO completely, or if we’ve successfully altered the diplomatic picture enough: Consider quietly accepting or even encouraging the nuclearization of Ukraine, Poland, Finland, and perhaps Sweden, effectively turning the Russian frontier into a no-go zone

Western Hemisphere
—Convert the Army into a border constabulary force (can use the early 20C as a model if it helps) and deploy it to the southern border

—Build more border fortifications, stop processing asylum claims, and employ electronics/drones as force multipliers for a defense in depth involving CBP and the military
—Coordinate with state governors, Guard forces, etc to keep an active effort going

—Start seriously twisting arms diplomatically in our hemisphere regarding Chinese and Russian influence and abetting migration; employ carrots only as rewards for established and continuing good behavior

—Counter Russian and Iranian deployments to Venezuela with a contractor/mercenary presence in Guyana (this is one area where a light/corporate force can be adequate)

—Keep one carrier group on station somewhere near the Canal as a warning against various mischief and to establish ourselves as a hemispheric player (two would be better but we’re going to have to build those)

Industry/Economic
—Use the remaining savings from the Army’s budget (should be the bulk) to build ships for the Navy and aircraft for the Air Force (and equip and man them)

—Accelerate drone and other R&D (since I harp on this: try to figure out command/control issues well in advance so this doesn’t become a problem down the line)

—Use targeted subsidies to kickstart commercial shipbuilding and also rare earth mining and, if possible, domestic heavy industry

—Stockpile not only food but fertilizer and pharmaceuticals to harden the country against Chinese trade warfare (a coordinated state effort may be better than federal efforts for this, given experience)

—Work to remove regulatory and structural (union and monopoly power) barriers to entry and efficiency in domestic industry (and try to break up defense conglomerates and/or encourage competition in that area)

Trade:
—Start building a preferred trade bloc with -reliable- US allies (the list might be -very- short at first and should be curated based on willingness to provide for their own defense and diplomatic good behavior)

—Use membership in this bloc as a carrot for further cooperation (effectively enabling a “soft decoupling” over time)

—Stop all future trade cooperation with China and regard further trade enmeshment by US allies, partners, etc as a red flag, with cooperation adjusted accordingly

—Structure US trade policy such that key decisions can be made quickly in response to trade partners’ behavior (ie, avoid inflexible treaties, require frequent congressional reapproval, use executive power for entente diplomacy rather than formal agreements, etc)

Finance:
—Accept the end of the petrodollar system and start preparing for a post-exorbitant privilege world
—Try to exploit the end of the petrodollar system to kickstart domestic industry (particularly heavy industry)

—When the domestic entitlements trust funds start to run dry, use the opportunity to shift some of the spending (which probably cannot be cut without causing a recession) to defense and/or industrial subsidies…

…(effectively accessing some previously engaged latent economic potential)

And last…

The Middle East (avoid, avoid)
—Avoid entanglement in the MidEast, and let a balance of power form between Iran and the Sunni states so we’re not dealing with the worst of either…

…(in particular, make sure there’s enough Iranian proxies to keep IS down, and try to keep Iran tied up in turn)
—Close off most ME immigration except as strictly necessary (and revamp the visa system as necessary)

—Tell Israel we’re behind it morally but they need to get their domestic arms production up because supplies may be limited in the future (and mean it)

—Regard the Red Sea as impassable and adjust naval strategy, trade policy, and financial expectations accordingly (effectively, we’re writing this off)

—Pursue closer ties with India, but recognize they are unlikely to commit to anything substantive; reward cooperation on naval, defense, and trade matters

There is -PLENTY- to do here - but if you got this going more things would start to shift.

The biggest problem here has been inertia and drift: If you started working on these things interested parties, foreign & domestic, would come forward to help.

And you could go from there

Of interest to:

@LukeGromen @matthew_pines @ElbridgeColby @maphumanintent @johnkonrad @mercoglianos (and feel free to tag others)

@LukeGromen @matthew_pines @ElbridgeColby @maphumanintent @johnkonrad @mercoglianos @FPRI_Orbis and @arisroussinos as well, perhaps.