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Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
@SimonWDC
Oct 11 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Of last 15 general election polls released in PA, 12 have right/GOP affiliations.

Their campaign to game the polling averages and make it appear like Trump is winning - when he isn't - escalated in last few days.

Polling averages new post-Helene MAGA disinfo target. Image
I will have more data tomorrow but I urge journalists and researchers to dive into @FiveThirtyEight and see how the red wave pollsters have flooded the zone again.

MT, PA, NC were initial targets but now it's all 7 battleground states. 2/

This 2024 red wave op is much larger and involves many more actors and polls than the red wave campaign in 2022. It also involves new players - Polymarket, Elon - and feels far more desperate, frenetic, unhinged. Trumpian. 3/

x.com/SimonWDC/statu…

x.com/SimonWDC/statu…
And for those wondering how could this be real consider: 1) they did it in 2022 and it worked 2) for a community who tried to overturn the US election in 2020 gaming polling averages is child's play, easy-peasy stuff. 4/
nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/…
Oh, then there is this new documented MAGA fuckery 5/
Oh, then there is new other new documented MAGA info fuckery 6/

yahoo.com/news/major-con…

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More from @SimonWDC

Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 12
So, a short thread about why it is so important to Trump that it be perceived that he is leading in the polls when he isn't.

In sum - it is his campaign's primary strategy to obscure his historic ugliness. 1/
Trump may be a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon but he is leading in the polls and is strong.

Trump may be a dangerous extremist, a bigot, misogynist and a racist but he is leading in the polls and is strong. 2/
Trump may want to end the global economy which has made us prosperous, end the Western alliance which has kept us safe, end American democracy which has kept us free but he is leading in the polls and is strong. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Sep 28
Remarkable number of GOP/right-wing aligned pollsters in the averages right now, and it should not surprise anyone to see them start producing polls showing, all of a sudden, the election moving to Trump and the Rs! What they did in 2022. Can't fall for it again this time.
Here's one of these GOP-aligned pollsters taking credit for helping move the NC 538 average to Trump. 2/ Image
Want to see what a coordinated campaign by right-wing pollsters to move the averages can do? Here is RCP's final Senate map in 2022. The averages had the Rs getting to 54 seats in the Senate. They got to 49. 3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Sep 24
As we head to Arizona this week a reminder that immigration rarely performs for Rs as a general election issue. Trump ended the 2018 midterms with caravans and fearmongering and we won by 8.6 pts. Voters available to us usually care about other issues far more. 1/
A majority of the country is reconciled to our more diverse future. Obama won with 53% in the vote in 2008, Harris is hitting 50% in many polls now. 2/
I also think people need to distinguish between what's happening at the border and immigration. The issue of the border has always been about control, making government work. You can be pro-immigrant and want tougher border controls. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Sep 23
On the NYT polls:
- PA +4, AZ -5 for Harris. Both states voted the same in 2020. 9 pts apart this time?
- Recent NYT polling has been 3-4 pts more R than overwhelming majority of polls.
- Here's most recent @MorningConsult battleground tracker: 1/

@MorningConsult This chart has problems.
- Polls from before the debate? We have post-debate polls like Morning Consult above
- 2 of 5 pollsters cited have clear GOP affiliation - Cygnal, Data Orbital - not noted as such
- NC Emerson poll has Harris up 1, 49%-48%. 2/ Image
Here's the NC graphic from Emerson: Image
Read 4 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Sep 13
Creating a narrative that he's winning not losing is now an existential issue for Trump and his allies:
- that is he winning and strong and that we are losing and weak is his entire campaign. He is nothing w/o it
- he needs data showing him winning to contest the election 1/
Investing in creating a false narrative that Rs are doing better than polls/data suggest is what they did in 2022, and we should expect them to do it again this time.

Dems should not be doing anything to help them red wave this election too. 2/

In a new video about the 2024 election I talk about how the national/state polling is good for us now and that if put our heads down and do the work we can have the election we all want to have - but only if we do the work! Enjoy! 3/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/kamala-won-p…
Read 5 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Sep 13
Doing a short thread for our Dem family about best ways to respond to positive data like this below.
1) Don't dismiss, diminish, but, however the data. It is good data. Let it be good. Share it. Delight in it. 1/
2) Comments that "natl polls don't matter only state polls do" is some of the absolutely stupidest things people write on Twitter. Of course national polls matter. We have elections in all 50 states, and the state polls often move with the national data. Both matter. 2/
3/Dems need to let go of 2016 and stop talking about it. It's 2024 not 2016, and no election is like any other.

And when when you see positive data like this and immediately evoke something that's bad and scary you are doing MAGA's work for them. Let 2024 be 2024 please.
Read 6 tweets

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