Thread by @clement_molin

In Russia's 🇷🇺 #Kursk oblast, 3 months after the ukrainian 🇺🇦 offensive

After 3 months of heavy fightings in Kursk, neither side made a decisive move.

Kursk is becoming a graveyard and Russia, with a 50k army hasn't been able to take back its territory.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️

First, before seeing the last events, you can read my article of the 1 year of Avdiivka-Donbass offensive on @atummundi.

You can translate it in English !

atummundi.fr/clement-molin/…

After two weeks in Kursk, russian reinforcement stopped the ukrainien progress.

It all began in late August when at least 6 brigades broke through the border and advanced between 10 and 30 km inside russian territory, by surprise.

The area was heavily fortified and mined but there were not enough soldiers defending the border. In 4 days, Ukraine took Sudja, a small town at the border.

However, Ukraine was forced to stop after it sustained losses near Korenevo (north) and Giri (south).

Far from the Donbass and the russian progress near Pokrovsk, Kursk operation managed a few things :

-distracting a force of 50k men from elsewhere at the front
-fighting inside russian territory (avoiding a russian Sumy operation)
-Training new brigades to offensive actions.

However, the ukrainian army failed to take controll of Korenevo, a town that would have protected its western flank and helped to take Glushkovo district, encircled on the south, east and west by Ukraine and on the north by Seym river.

Russian VDV and 155th Marines launched a first counter-attack, taking back Snagost, and reopening the road to Glushkovo.

Ukraine reacted and launched another border operation south of Glushkovo.

The two offensive operations happened both in middle september 2024, then, nothing happened anymore, with Ukraine trying to consolidate its positions and Russia advancing on a smaller scale.

As seen on the first map, Russia launched a new counter-offensive to cut the ukrainian on the back.

We don't have all the informations yet, but you can see they made some progress on the western side, near Korenevo.

I said, "Kursk is becoming a graveyard".

During the 3 months of fightings, Ukraine lost 19 tanks, 70 armoured vehicles, 103 MRAP and some other equipments, with 231 losses, including 164 destroyed.

(Source @naalsio26)

Russia lost 23 tanks, (9 captured among them), 49 armoured vehicles, 6 MRAP and 34 trucks. There are 155 losses, including 107 destroyed.

Losses are higher for Ukraine, but Russia is loosing more and more in its current counter-attacks.

Like everywhere at the front, Russia's advantage is the daily use of FAB bombs of 500 to 3000 kg.

These bombs can destroy everything, including fortified positions.

Russia is also using a lot of planes for close air support missions, like this Su-25 bombing a claimed ukrainian positions east of Veseloe.

You can see 4 (!) different drones view of the same place.

Drones are a very big threat. When I'm mapping fortifications, people are telling me I'm helping Russia.

Just look how many Zala/Orlan/Supercam drones have been destroyed by ukrainian FPV drones over Kursk the last few days !

@AndrewPerpetua counted ~50 of them !

On the losses, there are lots of MRAP. These vehicles can protect their crew against mines and drones attack, but they are most of the time abandonned and destroyed after being hit.

On the western side of Kursk front, russian army launched a few attacks.

The first one may have lifted the Kremyanoe siege, while the seconth progressed along the road to Novoivanovka.

Both videos are showing the russian progress. Look at how many destroyed vehicles are on the road. There are ukrainians and russians.

I believe they wanted to get to Malaya Loknya, to encircle ukraine north of it.

Russian army also tryied to take back the lost territory south of Glushkovo, with some failed counter-attacks.

However, the situation there is still difficult to understand, with some chanels claiming they pushed back the ukrainians to the border...

Here are some images of ukrainian losses near Veseloe. I'm still asking myself if it was really necessary ?

Maybe it avoided a Sumy operation, but I don't believe the public opinion likes very well the idea of sending its sons dying in Russia...

There are many many more videos of Ukrainian vehicles being hit by russian drones. Currently, Russia is attacking and Ukraine is still losing more armour than Russia.

Here are some MRAP, tanks, M113, Bradley.

After 3 months of fighting in Kursk, we can't say there are no results. There are plenty, I talked about them just before.

However, are cross boder operations (Kursk and Kharkiv) a good thing to contain Russia in the Donbass ? I have doubts.

I believe there are two main things we have to remember :

-Fighting in Russia avoids fighting in Sumy, of course it is needed to have troops at the border, it is better to have them inside Russia.
-But does it have any effect on the frontline ? I don't believ so.

This map of Kursk offensive is made thanks to @UAControlMap work, especially (@moklasen and @Jeff21461) and thanks to geolocators of @DefMon3 and @AndrewPerpetua.

It may contain errors since there is a lack of informations on a few areas and units engaged.

I have read many threads and I still can't say if Kursk was a good or a bad idea.

I'm currently updating my fortification work, it is necessary to understand what both sides are preparing for.

It takes me hours, so you can support me here buymeacoffee.com/clement.molin

And finally, you can follow me and other students on @atummundi.

Here is our instagram : instagram.com/atummundi/

And here my last article on the website : atummundi.fr/clement-molin/…