Thread by @a_from_s

It’s time for another thread! Today, we’re exploring spare SPG and towed gun barrels in Russian storage bases and looking into what’s been happening there since the beginning of the war. I would like to share with you my observations.

To start, Russian storage bases became flooded with equipment after military reforms in the 2010s. Vehicles had to be stored and organized. During this period, many SPGs and towed guns were disassembled for spare parts that remained in storage bases.

Here’s a quick 2010-2021 time-lapse of the 94th Arsenal to show how it took a while before things became organized. This is true for every base I’ll cover in this thread.

Now, let’s talk barrels! At the 94th Arsenal, barrels are stored here: 55.01350212999135, 73.3981173147039. Based on measurements using Google Earth, most of these barrels match D-20 and D-30 dimensions from 2S3 and 2S1 SPGs. Quite the collection.

By mid-2024, most of these barrels were gone, and about 25+ 2S1 and 2S3 turrets had appeared. Are we counting barrels? Not precisely, as they’re stacked on each other. I’ll give an estimated number at the end based on available OSINT data.

Let’s look further into the 94th Arsenal. Here’s where they change 2S7 Pion barrels. We’re talking heavy-duty operations with cranes for these huge 14,600 kg things. I’ve spotted around 20+ of them. I believe these are already worn-out junk barrels.

In another section, you can see 2S5 barrels along with some smaller stuff I didn't bother to identify. These 2S5 systems, like the 2S7s, are cannibalized for barrels and other spare parts.

Here’s a key insight:
Russia not only has a large reserve of D-20 and D-30 guns but also a substantial stockpile of spare 2S1 and 2S3 barrels, which means it will take a while to exhaust these supplies...

...However, the situation is different for 2S5 and 2S7 barrels—these are much scarcer and, as time goes on, they will likely become increasingly rare on the battlefield.

Next, we visit the 80th Arsenal. Like the 94th, this base has been cannibalizing equipment for years. While most of the 2S1 and 2S3 barrels may be stored indoors, there’s a small outdoor area with what appear to be Msta-S barrels.

The Msta-S turrets stored nearby support this theory. Coordinates: 56.76330984629225, 61.19054511993075. As you noticed, a row of barrels was taken from there by 2024.

Another interesting spot here shows cannibalized SPGs. Before 2022, this area had about 40+ cannibalized vehicles. By 2024, it had increased to 80+. I believe the new ones are mostly 2S5s and possibly 2S4s, given the increased need for 2S5 barrels.

I'll be more precise when I have less potato quality image. Anyways, you can see three piles of cannibaliezed barrels there.

Now we go to the 120th arsenal in Bryansk, which is closest to the battlefield and repairs vehicles coming from there. Since there are a lot of buildings, I haven’t spotted any barrels outside. Could they be there? Well, they stored a lot of 2S3s inside.

What about 2022-2024? I spotted two places with barrels. The first one has around 15 2S7 Pion barrels. The second one has a mix of barrels on the right side and a mix of damaged, destroyed, and worn-out vehicles on the left side—2S7, 2S19, 2S3. The images are from 2023, though.

At the 109th Arsenal, vehicle systemization and cannibalization have been ongoing for over a decade. While most barrels may be stored indoors, I found one outdoor area with a mix of 2S7, 2S3, and some towed gun barrels.

By 2024, they had been removed. Coordinates: 52.38352191626237, 104.15140613082362.

And the last place is the 40th arsenal, with what I believe to be barrels located right here: 55.87327792439185, 39.127264881177226.

And now let's get back to the number of barrels that may have been stored. I believe The Military Balance had roughly correct numbers of stored SPGs, but they were not updated with time. According to TMB, the Russians had:
2000 of 2S1
1000 of 2S3
850 of 2S5
150 of 2S19
260 of 2S7

OSINT fellas @HighMarsed , @CovertCabal , and @Jonpy99 did a tremendous job identifying and counting SPGs in storage. They came up with:
1581 of 2S1
860 of 2S3
626 of 2S5
117 of 2S19
218 of 2S7

Subtract one from another, and you have approximately: 419 of 2S1, 140 of 2S3, 224 of 2S5, 33 of 2S19, and 42 of 2S7 barrels or SPGs stored inside. This part is just a theory, but it makes sence (probably).

That’s it for today, fellas! If you like my threads, feel free to support me on Patreon or via PayPal at [e-mail]. More good OSINT-stuff is coming up! See ya!
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