Thread by @dogemperor

We're not done with me discussing how polling is absolute Hot Garbage, and that even the "high quality polls" have such serious issues in methodology that they are missing entire populations and are highly susceptible to skew (so stop panicking and work on GOTV)

1/x

So first off, this CBS/YouGov poll *again* is A SMALL pool, 2,719 registered voters--and of note, YouGov is a *PAID SURVEY GROUP*. You have to ACTIVELY sign up to YouGov to get polled, people are PAID to complete surveys for YouGov.

This will ALREADY skew results

2/x

Many, if not most, people will actively avoid paid online surveys (because they discover very quickly it's a scam, at the most you might get a little beer money) and YouGov polls are occasionally very skewed towards Republican candidates.

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Younger people tend to not participate because of privacy concerns; the people who are most likely to participate in an opt-in, paid-focus-group survey on YouGov are STRONGLY in those demos likely to be "marks" and which trend R anyways

4/xthreadreaderapp.com/thread/1842984…

And so, yes, there's already heavy potential for Malarkey with this one, and this does appear to be one of those polls that has a population fairly heavily weighted towards R voters...and even THEN *Kamala Harris is ahead at 51%*

5/xcbsnews.com/news/trump-har…

Another hint we are dealing with a poll with a *heavy* population of conservatives is that "the economy", "the US/Mexico border", "Crime", and "Inflation" are ranked high, whilst only a few list "climate change" or the Gaza conflict or *ABORTION* (which is EXTREMELY sus)

6/x

And yeah, that "Abortion" being a "major factor" in 50% and "not a factor" in 22% is SUS AS FUCK because literally EVERY other "high quality" poll (including the NBC and NYT polls with their methodology issues) rank abortion as THE issue for under-30s. THE issue.

7/x

The YouGov poll listing *The Economy* as the primary issue, followed by "Inflation", "The state of democracy", and "Crime", "Gun Policy", and "The US/Mexico border" being the only polling issues above 50% as "Major Factor" practically SCREAMS "right wing focus group"

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And ironically, we can say THAT because we CAN directly compare this to the phone polls--even as skewed as THOSE are, it's literally *those* same issues that pop out *only* for over 45s and Trump-leaning voters who are registered R

9/x

Another hint we're dealing with an extremely skewed polling group AND a poll is that the TOP answer to "As you see it, the biggest threat to the American way of life today comes from" listed as "Other people in America, and domestic enemies" (at 41%)

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And again, indications of skew even show up in the "Where do you feel you get information that is true?" (primarily Friends and family, medical scientists, and then nothing over 50%--and a 42% for "Mistaken" for "religious leaders"

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And (interestingly enough) conservative media figures are generally seen as "truthier" than liberal media figures

And, again, remember, this is a poll that is literally a *paid focus group* that *members opt in to join*, so plenty of opportunity to turn into a junk poll.

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And in fact there's at least ONE clear indication that incels may have in fact joined YouGov en masse to bomb the polls. Specifically, the question on "do you think efforts to promote gender equality betwen men and women are..."

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Literally the MAJORITY of answers (37%) were that gender equality efforts were "going too far", 30% at "are going about right so far", and 33% at "not going far enough"

Which. DEFINITELY shows the user base is skewed as hell

14/x

A comparable survey on gender equality issues by Pew Research shows that most Americans (including 57% overall, 49% of men overall, and 64% of women) don't think gender equality has gone far enough

And in NO spot do you see "go too far" as majority

15/xpewresearch.org/social-trends/…

In fact, the CLOSEST one gets is with "Rep/Lean Rep", where 33% show "not gone far enough", 48% "been about right", and 17% "gone too far"

And for Republican *men*, 28% "not far enough", 20% "gone too far", 51% "been about right"

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So yeah, THAT's a bit of an indication right there something extremely sus is going on

(And even with THIS there is a higher perception of positive ratings for Kamala's speeches vs TFG's.)

And there's another indication the poll got bombed by douchebros

17/x

The question regarding the VP debate shows that 35% "more likely to vote for TFG" (which would match a LOT of the incredibly misogynist sorts ranting for Vance on this hellsite), 30% more likely for Harris, and 35% "no impact"

(Most polls show most folks weren't swung)

18/x

And question after question on here shows they were polling an *extremely* conservative subset, including subsets that are being directly influenced by disinformation on hurricane relief efforts (with 46% saying FEMA funds were being diverted to undocumented immigrants)

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And in fact 36% of respondents actually believe the Big Lie (in that they believe the 2020 election was illegitimate somehow for Reasons)

And Again we see the SAME SKEWS in polling of age groups as with EVERY OTHER POLL, as I'll note below

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Only 417 people (in the 2,715) were under 30, again only around 15% (which again is a population that is *notoriously* unpollable, and yes, this is a point I am going to fairly continuously Harp On because that is also the largest pool of likely Harris/Walz voters)

21/x

Only 22.8% of respondents (621) were 30-44; again, over HALF the respondents were over 45 (61.7%, with 34.9% (949) being 45-64, and 26.8% (728) being over 65).

In fact, this is the STRONGEST skew for over-65s outside of phone polls in parts of Arizona and Florida

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And again, the over-45 set also involved fully *88%* of the people responding to this poll who identified as "conservative", and with an EXTREMELY strong skew with over-65s (62% identifying as "conservative")

And again, remember--a fair number join YouGov for "beer money"

23/x

And to SHOW you just how badly this can skew a poll:

The under-30 numbers (the largely Unpollable) show a *67%* preference for Harris, 30-44 nums show *59%* pref for Harris, it's ONLY when you get into the above-45s that it starts swinging towards TFG, strongly with 65+

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And interestingly--the same "deeper dive" also shows that *younger people ended up much more likely to vote for Harris based on the VP debate* (and the "more likely to vote for Trump" was almost ENTIRELY concentrated in the 45+ cohort).

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And--interestingly--there was a definite pop specifically among *African-American* and *Hispanic* populations as well in that the VP debate made them more likely to vote for Harris, and an ESPECIALLY strong one for African-Americans

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Most people under 45 believed that they would get better access to affordable healthcare under Harris, and *especially* African-Americans; Hispanics also were under impression affordable healthcare would improve under Harris

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Most of the people who thought taxes would go up under Harris for them personally were, again, over 45 years of age, with a sharp rise in people over 65--a cohort that actually tends to pay the lowest taxes of any age demographic overall

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But generally all signs are that this whole CBS/YouGov poll (which, again, is from *a pool of people who self-select to join YouGov, which is itself a pool of people who are "easy marks" and trend conservative anyways*) is from a Very Old, Very Conservative set

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And as these polls come out, yes, I am going to point out these issues in methodology because people are working themselves into a Panic instead of seeing what bits ARE garbage, sifting through the trash to find *actual actionable insights*, and using THAT to GOTV

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And what we have learned so far:

a) Polling almost 2/1 reaches 45+ populations, which skew R, and THAT is going to skew ANY poll R
b) There is really no functional way to correct for this (because people under 45 frankly don't trust random callers and paid focus groups)

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So the best way to prepare for a post-polling world is to glean what few bits of usable info you CAN get regarding the likely "silent majority"--which isn't your "undecideds" (which largely don't exist), but young voters (polling groups still don't quite get this)

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So you look at the polls and you see what is important to people under 45

Healthcare pops out. Abortion is THE Mother Of All Issues for those under 45, pointing at a SIGNIFICANT "Dobbs Effect" that is *NOT* being captured in polls for multiple reasons

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And you remember polls don't vote, people do.

Let me repeat that louder for the people in the back:

POLLS DO NOT VOTE.

POLLS ARE SURVEYS OF SMALL SUBSETS THAT TREND OLD AND TREND REPUBLICAN.

A LOT OF FOLKS POLLERS WILL *NEVER* REACH ARE YOUR BEST HOPE FOR A HARRIS WIN.

34/x

So remember that People Vote, Not Polls. And we DON'T win if we DON'T COME OUT IN *NUMBERS*.

Check reg! vote.gov
Learn your options iwillvote.com
Make a plan to vote: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1763057…
Make a guide: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1800169…

AND VOTE.

35/x

And don't just vote. Make a voting buddy and make sure both of you come out to vote. Make voting guides and SHARE them with people (especially if you are in a state with school board or judicial elections and/or ballot initiatives). Work with GOTV efforts nationwide

36/x

It doesn't even have to be *phone banking*.

One of the ways that YOU can amplify the Dobbs Effect if you're a woman actually just involves a pen and Post-It Notes and your purse. (Yes, I'm serious!)

And there's even online resources to help with that

37/x

There's an ongoing "guerilla GOTV" campaign involving women writing reminders on Post-It notes a reminder that their vote is private, that nobody needs to know who they voted for, and encouraging them to vote Harris/Walz
nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…
msmagazine.com/2024/09/18/pos…

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And Etsy and Amazon actually even have pre-printed Post-It Notes (etsy.com/listing/178757… and amazon.com/Harris-Kamala-…) but I'd actually encourage a single addition to these Post-It Notes reminding women that their vote is private.

39/x

On the Etsy link, you can actually add personalization, and I would encourage a link to Vote Without Fear AND their 1-800 number at 1 [phone] (the latter is likely to be more helpful for some populations)

40/xvotewithoutfear.com

And this is a SIMPLE way that you can do your part to drive the Dobbs Effect, which is (again) something the polls do NOT catch, because women often won't answer polling questions if a MAGAt spouse might overhear

41/xsalon.com/2024/08/14/can…

And yes, this can even reach people who voted for Trump in 2020--there is a SIGNIFICANT sexual abuse scandal ongoing now in New Apostolic Reformation churches (including #ihopkc, #hillsong, and #bethel) as well as in the SBC, to the point #churchtoo IS occasionally a trend

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And a lot of the women who are recent #exvangelicals, or who may be disturbed at some of JD Vance's comments about women, are DEFINITELY reachable (and the fact "Can my husband find out who I voted for" IS common is a sign of a potential shadow Dobbs Effect)

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This is also a good thread to forward to people if they're concerned:

ALSO very useful for young #exvangelicals of voting age who are still forced to live with MAGAt parents or in Christian Nationalist colleges, too

44/xthreadreaderapp.com/thread/1821281…

And more resources to provide if you know people in that situation:

But yeah. Don't fret the polls (which are broken and likely to be more so).

Focus on the reachable. GOTV. Vote yourself.

Remember the assignment and get it done, y'all.

45/end

https://x.com/dachshundad/status/1821633462949859437

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