Thread by @Prune602

‼️ The Russian Debt Thread: Part 4

(You might want to bookmark this)

If you’re seeing this and don’t know where Part 1….

It’s right here

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1845617033288757662

So the you may think the government could just cut spending and everything will be fine…*sigh* but they have been.

Did you see the healthcare thread?

They stopped spending money on MEDICINE!!!

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1767333652357124393

Remember: Potemkin Village

Many of these things were bad and underfunded before and the money has been looted for years.

Schools aren’t being renovated. The only thing that continues to get top notch funding is the propaganda.

And cutting more has consequences.

You have to think of it as an ecosphere.

If they cut spending significantly to one area, then it might go bankrupt. Then when they want to restart a project they need…those resources no longer exist.

It’s a big problem for a country that says it can do everything alone…

🇷🇺: IT’S FINE!!! I CAN DO EVERYTHING MY SELF!!! I DON’T NEED ANYONE ELSE…RUSSIA STRONG (but also….please help me)

🇨🇳: um….I’m questioning this relationship….I really don’t want to risk secondary sanctions, I have my own problems

🇰🇵: what’s up buddy!?

Trying to keep all of this going is becoming problematic.

Overextending the largest country on earth is a valid strategy.

And it is becoming a problem…even though they try to hide it.

Right now the Russian Government is very much sending out two different messages.

The first one:

🇷🇺: EVERYTHING IS GREAT RIGHT NOW! THERE IS NO BUDGET DEFICT (currently)

This is trick. Let me show you what spending per month actually looks like.

Boom! It’s not exactly a straight line is it? And December looks expensive.

And here’s the thing. When they submitted the 2025 Budget they also snuck in a 3rd EVEN HIGHER deficit for 2024 in with it.

But they don’t want you to notice that part 😂

Here is the tables the 🇷🇺 Ministry of Finance releases on their webpage that they won’t let most of us see.

The data is written in YTD format. I changed it to “per month” to make my chart above.

This one from near the beginning of 2024 has a deficit of ₽1.595 Trillion

This one is for August 2024. See how the deficit went up 2.120 Trillion Rubles? This came from the Amended 2024 Budget

But then in their newest report for September 2024, the one they’re bragging about everything being great, well they’ve already updated it to an EVEN BIGGER DEFICIT

3.296 Trillion Rubles!

And based on their history the actual deficit will probably be bigger.

They know it’s coming, they’re sending out two different messages in the same press release.

This new information is why I had to pause the OFZ thread, because my old chart no longer worked. They came up with a new 3rd 2024 Budget.

And as we move forward, you’ll see that the Ministry of Finance knows it’s in trouble. But, they’re trying to fix it, or at least do a “rip off the bandaid quickly approach” when revealing the bad news.

So now, they’ve got an unavoidable growing deficit, they need to pay it.

They can use some of their NWF fund to pay it, and in the original & amended budget, the plan was to use 1.3 Trillion Rubles from the NWF to cover part of it.

I don’t know what this new table will look like for

✨2024 Budget 3.0: Now with an even Bigger DEFICIT!✨

I’m going to *guess* that the amount pulled out of the NWF at the end of the year will be 1.3 Trillion OR MORE. I don’t see a situation where this goes down.

So there is another way that they can fund the deficit…A LOAN!

Getting a new foreign loan is unlikely to happen. So they can try to get a local loan and these are the Federal Bonds!

Also known as OFZ BONDS!

And friends…it is not going well, not well at all

Originally to determine how much they needed, we took the amount in the red box (this is Annex 40 of the budget) and then add the amount needed for repayment of state securities. And this is how much they needed to place in bonds to fulfill the plan to fund the deficit.

But now they’re a mysterious 3rd budget that needs to be approved. I don’t know if or when we’ll get to see a new table for this 2024 Budget. All we know is that it is a bigger deficit!

And that the current plan is not going well! How bad?

Well, worse than I thought…which should tell you something.

I’m going to be giving a lot of explanation about how bad this is because…it will be necessary to see the big picture.

Remember, Russia is very much operating outside of the norms.

Therefore I’m going to ask you to be patient and not just read the charts by themself and compare the numbers without reading the explanations. They need to be looked at in context.

I do want to take a moment to thank @ulyssecolonna for helping me figure some new stuff out

New exciting information is coming in Part 5!

(Come on…I have to sleep sometime)

Here’s Part V

https://twitter.com/Prune602/status/1846232379314020384