From St. Petersburg to Lake Baikal there are no other assets more critical to Russia's Industrial Energy Military Complex than 500kV Large Power Transformers (LPTs) of its industrial electricity network.
We know 🇺🇦 long range One-Way-Attack (OWA) drones torch them, nicely. 1/4
And we know exactly how many there are and exactly where they are located, almost all of which are entirely out in the open. 2/4 tinyurl.com/Russian-Grid-V…
We know they connect Russia's power stations (nuclear, hydro, gas & coal) to large industrial loads & logistics, requiring 10s to 100s of MW each to operate.
Also, most Russian cities have networks with small power stations to provide civilian needs, but not large loads. 3/4
How many 500/220kV single-phase LPTs are there?
710
Caveat ~5% are backup units installed in the Transmission Station (hub).
🇺🇦 has "drone sanctioned" at least that many village sub LPTs to date.
At least one hundred 500kV LPTs should have burned by now.
And yet... 4/4
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I have no reservations for scorched earth in 🇷🇺out 250km from 🇺🇦, w/ systematic destruction of 🇷🇺grid the backbone to this ‘drone sanctions’ enforced DMZ.
Value of this approach has been dismissed by so called ‘experts’ since day 1, unless it was explicitly military or fuel🎯
It is also dismissed by those claiming russia’s massive strikes on the🇺🇦grid was a ‘failure’ bc 🇷🇺 had no ‘military victories’. Apparently loss of industrial capacity and civilians is not ‘military victory’ enough for the western jarhead?
How big & how much power do LPTs "transform" in large transmission hubs found in Russia?
Enough that you need 3 massive single phase LPTs, plus a redundant set to convert 750kv to 500kV or 500kV to 330kV or 220kV.
You can build to do "3x" through a pair of 3-phase for 220->110.
What is a "phase"? Those are the 3 big bundles of cables you see on transmission towers, each carrying a third of the AC power as it cycles 180 degrees from the others. R/G/W above.
Most 0rc 500/220kV stations have at least 1 additional 1-phase LPT on site, some 2. BLACK wire.
What are these?
Reactive Compensation, either 500kV or 750kV.
They don't convert voltages & are used for long distance transmission. They are single phase (RGW) & cost several million dollars each.
They are found in almost all 0rc stations, often equal to number of circuits.
It is still not clear that Ukrainian leaders understand that russia's electric network is primarily there to support its oil & gas production, with civilian use low on the list of priorities.
Major grid hub transformers are infinitely more valuable than 10-40k barrel fuel tanks.
So much for claims 0rcs can't produce transformers for their export nuclear power plants.
To date, ~3 transformers of the size made at Siemens Voronezh have burned by UA, while none of largest size made at Toshiba Power Machines in St. Petersburg.
What lead me down this pathway... a post regarding a meeting of @interrao CEO Boris Kovalchuk and Putin, highlighting non-events & trivialities occurring in Europe, missing InterRao's place in supporting the occupation since 2014 & war machine currently.
Our Responsibility🧵
It was never my position to criticize the emotional feelings & outrage of Ukrainians, of whom I have 0 personal experience of my country being destroyed or my people being genocided, let alone direct connection to Ukraine prior to the full-scale invasion. 1/x
I only wish I was better at channeling these justified & purely human outbursts for vengeance into a narrative Ukrainians could use to mobilize support from those outside Ukraine. 2/x
To demand our leaders, give AFU everything it needs, including the permission to use weapons we supply against targets they deem threats to Ukraine on russian soil. 3/x
🧵My prediction on impacts of General Zaluzhnyi's @CinC_AFU statements in @washingtonpost regarding US/UK lead Rules of Engagement for supplied weapon systems use/prohibition against any/all targets on/over Russian soil ...
1/12
tldr: Western Influencers & Experts -
"Ukrainians are proven to be unbreakable, there's nothing for us to do here, and they've got this one too!"
2/12
Sad Reality - Western Experts & Influencers will read Zaluzhni's very clear statements as...
"If the West refuses to untie our hands [change its Rules of Engagement], then we will produce our own advanced weapons to strike targets inside russia we deem as threats to us."
3/12