Assessment of the situation in Kursk direction
In the last few days, the Russians have continued successful attacks against the western flank of the Ukrainian-controlled area in Kursk. The Ukrainian defences were breached and Russian troops were able to push relatively deep. 1/
In the last few days, the Russians have continued successful attacks against the western flank of the Ukrainian-controlled area in Kursk. The Ukrainian defences were breached and Russian troops were able to push relatively deep. 1/
Let’s take a brief look at the recent developments.
Russians have carried out multiple counterattacks in Kursk in September and October. The first major success was opening the land route between Glushkovo and Korenevo. For Ukraine, this was a problematic setback. 2/
Russians have carried out multiple counterattacks in Kursk in September and October. The first major success was opening the land route between Glushkovo and Korenevo. For Ukraine, this was a problematic setback. 2/
From the Russian perspective, it was a pragmatic move, which was likely to happen at some point. It reduced the risk of Ukrainians cutting off and capturing Glushkovo and the area south of Seym river, as the supply didn’t solely depend on temporary bridges anymore. 3/
However, the risk of losing Glushkovo was rather low to begin with. Even with coordinated strikes against bridges, the Russians should be able to supply a bridgehead of this size in all situations. If it failed to do so, it’d be an interesting data point of their capabilities. 4/
Soon after this, the Russians started to push the Ukrainians back on the eastern flank of the bulge. Ukrainians lost the village of Borki and some other positions, but managed to hold Plekhovo. The changes in the frontlines weren’t as dramatic as in the western flank. 5/
In the last few days, the Russians have continued their advance. Russian troops have been geolocated as far as Zelenyi Shlyakh, where they have possibly also retaken some fortifications they lost in August. However, it’s unclear what positions they’ve actually managed to hold. 6/
Stabilizing the situation seems difficult. Ukraine has lost roughly a third of what they controlled in Kursk at the beginning of September – from over 1000 km2 to less than 700 km2. There are some uncertainties such as Olgovka, but the trend is clear. A lot has been lost. 7/
There are some challenges in the terrain of the western flank. There’s some forest patches and treelines here and there, but the area is mostly dominated by large open fields with a limited natural cover. Especially without proper fortifications, defending it can be difficult. 8/
The size of the area allows it to be monitored more effectively with Russian UAVs, and destroying any engineering equipment is likely a priority for the Russians. Possibly because of this, we haven’t seen many new fortifications appear in the Ukrainian-controlled area. 9/
While Russia has continued its counteroperations, Ukraine launched an attack towards Glushkovo. However, it began after the Russians had already opened the land route to Korenevo. It is unclear what conditions for success the Ukrainians assumed the operation would have. 10/
The attack in Glushkovo has not made very much progress. A couple of villages were captured, but advancing further north has proved to be difficult, and there likely won’t be rapid changes. The Russians claim they have pushed Ukraine back in this direction too. 11/
In the near future, I’ll analyse the operation from other angles. In brief: I still don’t think it’s a great success.
Our team at the @Black_BirdGroup continues to follow the war. Our interactive map can be found here. 12/12
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…
Our team at the @Black_BirdGroup continues to follow the war. Our interactive map can be found here. 12/12
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…
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