I was talking to a Republican committeeman that I'm friendly with. Won't say which county, don't want to give him away. I asked about GOTV. He looked despondent. I asked him what was the biggest problem. What he said in the next tweet:
"The Legislature and the SoS fucked us. They put a lot of people on the inactive voter file, and to become active, they had to either respond to the postcard, or provide proof of residence when they show at the poll."
That didn't seem like a big deal to me. So I said "I thought
you guys love Voter ID laws. What's the problem?"
His answer floored me.
"The people without the ID in Montana aren't minority and young voters, you can't do anything in Montana without a driver's license, so everyone has one, except for the anti-government nuts who don't want
the government to know where they are. They live up in the hills, the house and vehicles are in their wife's names, and they don't have any ID. We let them vote with a mail to their address and register the day of, before. Now the legislature iced out 50-60k of our voters."
Now, this is just one man's opinion, but I hadn't really thought of it that way. A lot of these people turned up and voted day of in 2020, and then didn't respond to postcards. Maybe they just showed up to vote for pot, but they voted solid red up and down the ballot.
This year,
they won't be able to vote. Their vote won't count. We only have a limited number of DMV locations (thanks GOP legislature) and they are booked until after the election. So no ID, no vote. It would be hysterical if Sheehy lost because of new voter laws.
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Ok, it's time for the thing that at least two people have been waiting for. Time for my final outlook on the race as I see it. Because I'm a data geek, I'm actually going to play out two scenarios. a 🧵
I have two scenarios because I think there's a real possibility of a /1
specific thing happening. But we'll start with the first scenario:
PRESIDENT: based on current trends and the raw data that I have seen, I think the Vice President wins by between 5-9 points, the most likely outcome being a popular vote victory of 7 points 52-45 /2
In this the EV plays out as follows: a range of between 276-319 EV for Harris with the most likely outcome being 303 EV (Harris winning all of the swing states except GA).
Senate: I see a range of possibilities between D+1 to R+3 with the most likely outcome being /3
Watching DeSantis here are some observations, a week into his running.
1) this guy's voice is grating 2) whatever he has done to lose weight has been worth it. 3) he needs someone on his policy team who is capable of turning off Fox News and talking to real voters.
4) promising to destroy "leftism" and saying woke every third word is winnowing voters out of his column of potential voters. (particularly in the general election) 5) running on COVID is probably a loser for him both in the primary and the general election. 6) people who say he
is more electable than Donald Trump need to refer to point 3 and if you've donated and have a line in to his campaign, you need to convince them to change their path. 7) pursuing people who think Trump hasn't been sufficiently right wing cuts off lots of people in the general.
Ok, so here's a thing. I'm not sure I understand it at all, maybe ya'll can help me.
So I guess the right wingers are up in arms because AB did a partnership with a trans activist? And want to boycott Bud Light?
Now, don't get me wrong, I haven't had a Budweiser or Bud Light /1
In the time I've been legal to drink, because, well it just isn't good beer. I'm not a huge beer fan in the first place, but if I'm going to drink one, I'll have a good one thanks..
But what I just don't understand about this crap is this:
AB is in the business of selling /2
their not great beer. I've always assumed that like everyone else, trans-folk have a drink from time to time. AB is a multi-billion dollar marketing company. Why does anyone care if they want to target a market?
Let me put it another way: how does it effect Matt Walsh /3
is full of upper-middle class white men in suburbs and exurbs. They're mostly libertarianish supply siders in professional or quasi-professional jobs, and they follow a certain profile.
Which doesn't understand what Disney represents to the average middle class person
in addition, they're ignoring what they themselves were saying even two years ago before they fell in love with their sweaty Jesus.
Government picking out specific people or businesses and subjecting them to sanction is not a popular course of action. RDS revoked their agreement