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Stephen Leuchtman 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Stephen Leuchtman 🇺🇦
@leuchtman
Single dad, writer, political junkie, Director of polling PRG. Tweets are my own. 8w7 ENFP. Since pronouns pissed people off Enneagram and Myer Briggs will too
2 subscribers
Nov 5, 2024 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Ok, it's time for the thing that at least two people have been waiting for. Time for my final outlook on the race as I see it. Because I'm a data geek, I'm actually going to play out two scenarios. a 🧵

I have two scenarios because I think there's a real possibility of a /1 specific thing happening. But we'll start with the first scenario:

PRESIDENT: based on current trends and the raw data that I have seen, I think the Vice President wins by between 5-9 points, the most likely outcome being a popular vote victory of 7 points 52-45 /2
Oct 15, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I was talking to a Republican committeeman that I'm friendly with. Won't say which county, don't want to give him away. I asked about GOTV. He looked despondent. I asked him what was the biggest problem. What he said in the next tweet: "The Legislature and the SoS fucked us. They put a lot of people on the inactive voter file, and to become active, they had to either respond to the postcard, or provide proof of residence when they show at the poll."

That didn't seem like a big deal to me. So I said "I thought
Sep 8, 2024 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
So I got polled on Montana Senate race by either AFP or Fabrizio this afternoon. I have some thoughts: a 🧵:

1) if they are doing what they did on this poll, it’s no surprise that the polling is showing a slight lead for Sheehy. As soon as I expressed a preference for Tester they brought out a list of false statements about Tester then asked if it changed my mind.
May 30, 2023 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Watching DeSantis here are some observations, a week into his running.

1) this guy's voice is grating
2) whatever he has done to lose weight has been worth it.
3) he needs someone on his policy team who is capable of turning off Fox News and talking to real voters. 4) promising to destroy "leftism" and saying woke every third word is winnowing voters out of his column of potential voters. (particularly in the general election)
5) running on COVID is probably a loser for him both in the primary and the general election.
6) people who say he
Apr 18, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Ok, so here's a thing. I'm not sure I understand it at all, maybe ya'll can help me.

So I guess the right wingers are up in arms because AB did a partnership with a trans activist? And want to boycott Bud Light?

Now, don't get me wrong, I haven't had a Budweiser or Bud Light /1 In the time I've been legal to drink, because, well it just isn't good beer. I'm not a huge beer fan in the first place, but if I'm going to drink one, I'll have a good one thanks..

But what I just don't understand about this crap is this:
AB is in the business of selling /2
Apr 17, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
I'm not picking on Doug specifically, but rather using this as totem for the RDS bandwagon.

Let's say Doug is right about the legal side of it, and given that the legislature can override actions of a specific group or board, he likely is.

It is my experience that the bandwagon is full of upper-middle class white men in suburbs and exurbs. They're mostly libertarianish supply siders in professional or quasi-professional jobs, and they follow a certain profile.

Which doesn't understand what Disney represents to the average middle class person