Kit Yates Profile picture
Oct 15 17 tweets 4 min read Read on X
After hearing some underwhelming testimony last month at the #COVIDInquiry on the use of respirators, @trishgreenhalgh and I decided to write a rapid response to the @bmj_latest to set the record straight.
Here's what we wrote...
1/15
bmj.com/content/386/bm…
"Respirators outperform surgical masks; fit-testing is desirable but not essential"

Professor Susan Hopkins (UK Covid Inquiry, 18th September 2024) claimed that evidence for the superiority of respirators (which are made to an industry standard and designed to fit ...
2/15
closely around the face) over medical facemasks (which are not generally made to any quality standard and often fit loosely, leaving gaps around the sides) is “weak”.
She also claimed that respirators are of little use if they are not fit-tested.
3/15
bmj.com/content/386/bm…
Separately (26th September 2024), Sir Chris Whitty claimed (in the context of a question about protecting healthcare workers) that “just having [PPE] kit but no training often produces little or no benefit”.
4/15
covid19.public-inquiry.uk/wp-content/upl…
In @trishgreenhalgh's recent state of the science review, she and her co-authors summarised an evidence base on masks and respirators for the prevention of respiratory infections. That evidence draws on multiple study designs across different disciplines.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38775460/
That evidence is contested chiefly because some infection prevention and control scholars reject or misinterpret evidence from outside their own discipline.
6/15
Several findings from our review, which included a new meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials, challenge official statements on this topic...
7/15
1. Because respiratory pathogens transmit via the air, a face covering that seals the face closely is likely to be more effective than one that allows air to bypass the filtration material.
8/15
2. Numerous laboratory studies have shown that FFP2 and FFP3 (or their US equivalents N95 and N99) respirators, which are made to an industry standard, filter out well over 95% and 99% of infectious particles respectively.
9/15
3. Both trials [4,5] and observational studies [6] have shown that respirators provide significantly more protection to healthcare workers than medical or cloth masks...
10/15
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21477136/
...so long as they are worn continuously (as opposed to being donned only for so-called ‘aerosol-generating procedures’ in patients known to be, or suspected of being, infectious).
11/15
elifesciences.org/articles/71131
4. Respirators that are not fit-tested are still significantly more effective than ordinary masks; they are as effective as fit-tested respirators in most but not all people.
12/15
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20853203/
As Baroness Hallett pointed out, to claim equivalence between an industry-standard product designed to take account of the known mechanism of transmission and a non-standard product which does not defies common sense.
13/15
It also appears to reflect a lack of familiarity with key research on the topic. We are concerned that the science of masks and respirators appears to have been misunderstood, and misinformation unwittingly perpetuated, by some of the very highest-level government advisors.
An effective UK response to any future pandemic depends on a deeper engagement with this science.
\ENDS
I wrote along similar lines in my latest substack:
"Is the Covid Inquiry about learning lessons or covering backs?"
Last month's testimony on masks and airborne spread has left many bemused
substack.com/home/post/p-15…Image
BMJ seem to have changed the link so you can find the response here now: bmj.com/content/386/bm…

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More from @Kit_Yates_Maths

Jun 25
As the UK’s general election campaign enters its final few weeks, we’ve already seen numerous examples of dodgy declarations, substandard stats and graph gaffs.

So I thought I'd write about the importance of numeracy to the functioning of democracy.
🧵
We can expect to see more questionable claims in the run up to polling day.
The factor that all these all these missteps have in common is that they involve the manipulation or misrepresentation of numerical quantities.
One of the most hotly disputed figures of the campaign so far has been the Conservatives’ claim that Labour’s policies will, as Rishi Sunak put it, “amount to a £2,000 tax rise for everyone”. Labour have rebuffed this figure, arguing that...
theguardian.com/politics/artic…
Read 29 tweets
Jun 13
Politicians will get away with the things we forget, so here is a list of things to remember about the government's record on covid:
1. Over 230,000 died from covid in the UK.
2. They partied while we weren't allowed to see our loved ones. Thousands died alone.
...
3. They were too late taking action in spring 2020.
4. They delayed again in autumn of 2020.
5. They waited until they had no other choice in winter of 2020/2021.
6. They funnelled cash to their mates through the VIP lane.
7. PPE provided to our healthcare workers was inadequate.
8. They failed to heed the warnings in the pandemic planning exercises.
9. The promised a protective ring around care homes and instead sent infected patients to them from hospitals.
There are many more, these are just the most egregious.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 2
A water company released sewage into the stream that runs into the beach where we were holidaying. I didn’t like the idea of swimming in the sea after that, so I tried to sue to water company for spoiling our holiday. This is what happened…
1/21
First up, cards on the table, I am a keen outdoor swimmer. I swim with a group of friends most weeks in our local stretch of the Thames. Come rain or shine, winter or summer, there are usually at least two of our number bracing the river waters north of Oxford.
2/21
We do so cautiously, however, especially in winter when it has been raining heavily and it is almost guaranteed that sewage will have been pumped into the river a few miles upstream.
The giveaway as to whether there has been a discharge or not is the smell.
3/21
Read 21 tweets
Mar 14
It's π-day (3/14 in US date format) - the international day of mathematics.
But people often ask me why π is important. Why do we care about calculating more and more digits?
In short, "What is the point of π?"
Well, here is the answer...
1/
3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937510...
The number of digits after the decimal place in pi extend off into the distance (these are the first 50).
Truncating π's decimal expansion after the second decimal place (3.14) is sufficient to specify the date of pi day.
With 11 digits of π we can calculate the circumference of the Earth from its radius with an error of just a mm.
With 38 digits we can compute the circumference of a circle encompassing the whole of the known Universe with an accuracy to within the radius of a hydrogen atom.
3/
Read 38 tweets
Feb 29
It's leap day - February 29th.

It's a special day - the rarest in our calendar.

But do you know why we have leap days at all and how often exactly they come around?

Read on to find out...
1/21
This exceptional day has been associated with weird and wonderful traditions over the years: from the wildly outdated notion that 29th of February is the only day when women can propose to men, to the Leaper Year festival held in Anthony, New Mexico.
2/21
vox.com/2016/2/29/1113…
As a rule of thumb, leap days come around every four years. But there are exceptions to this rule. For example, at the turn of every century we miss a leap year. Even though the year is divisible by four, we don’t add a leap day in the years that end in 00. But...
3/21
Read 23 tweets
Dec 21, 2023
Main points from the ONS/UKHSA Winter Infection survey.
TL-DR: There has been an increase in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England and Scotland during the 2 weeks leading up to 13 December 2023.
1/8
gov.uk/government/sta…
In England and Scotland, the estimated prevalence on 13 December was 4.2% (95% Credible intervals (CrI): 3.3%, 5.4%), equivalent to around 2,549,000 individuals (95% CrI: 1,996,000 to 3,236,000) being infected or around 1 in 24 people (95% CrI: 1 in 30 to 1 in 19).
2/8 Image
In England, the estimated prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 on 13 December was 4.3% (95% CrI: 3.3%, 5.4%), equivalent to 2,333,000 individuals (95% CrI: 1,825,000 to 2,953,000) being infected with SARS-CoV-2. This corresponds to around 1 in 24 people (95% CrI: 1 in 30 to 1 in 19).
3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets

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