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Oct 15 18 tweets 6 min read Read on X
MONTESONG 2024 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇲🇪🕸️📊
Welcome to the first NF deep dive of the season! In this series, I look at all links between the writers/artist of a national final lineup with other songs from the Eurovision world. The thread contains a detailed plot for each song 🧵 Image
A quick disclaimer: Many of the credits were revealed with an initial instead of a full first name. Thus there may be a slight insecurity with some of these connections. If any mistakes come to my attention, they will be noted at the end of the thread. Now let's get to it!
Neonoen - "Clickbait"
Band member Marko has a past with the Eurovision world. In 2005 he placed 6th in the Serbo-Montenegrin national final. Two years later, he placed 3rd in the first ever national final of an independent Montenegro. How will his band do this time? Image
Verica Čuljković - "Čuješ li"
Verica has gotten help from Filip Tančić with her song. He previously wrote Filip Žmaher's entry from PZE23, which unfortunately failed to advance from its semi final. Will he do better this time? Image
Nina Žižić - "Dobro došli"
No stranger to Eurovision, Nina has competed in a few before, and represented Montenegro at Eurovision 2013 with "Igranka". Her song was written by Boris Subotić of PZE fame, and A-list Balkan songwriter Darko Dimitrov (Firefighter/Proud/Loco loco) Image
Anastasija Koprolčec - "Kraj"
Anastasija makes her debut in the Eurovision world with the help of Stevan Milijanović who placed 12th in Beovizija 2020 with his group EJO, and the ethnic "Trag", as well as Bojan Marović, who placed 9th in the Serbo-Montenegrin NF of 2005 Image
Isak Šabanović - "Ljeto, ljeto, ljeto"
Isak's song was written by Eurovision royalty Leontina, who helped Serbia and Montenegro reach second place with Lane Moje. This is her third Eurovision collab with Nemanja Filipović, having also written for JESC 2020 and Beovizija 2020 Image
Nemanja Petrović - "Među zvijezdama"
A big name in the Balkan songwriting scene, Bane Opačić has had surprisingly little to do with Eurovision. His songs have placed 12th in Beovizija 2004 and 16th in the 2008 semi final. Can he reach the top positions this time? Image
Kejt - "Obala raja"
Kejt participated under her full name back in Montevizija 2018, reaching 2nd place only 3% of the televote short of winning. Can she win it all this time? Image
Glumci Band - "San"
Miha Radonjić has quite a history with Montenegrin preselections, though never quite managing to break through. His best result was 8th place in MontenegroSong 2007 Image
Milena Vučić - "Škorpija"
A major name in Balkan, Milena previously placed 3rd in the Serbo-Montenegrin NF of 2004, in a group that also included Nina Žižić. It seems her song was written by Eurovision icon Sanja Vučić, as well as Marko, who wrote Jelena Karleuša's song in 04 Image
Boban Rajović - "Suze"
A big name himself, Boban has had his song written by Goran Ratković, whose song placed 9th in Beovizija 2004, and Miladin Bogosavljević, whose song took 8th place in PZE 2022 Image
Đurđa - "To ljubav je"
A truly international team, Norwegian Jonas has written songs for MGP like "Death of Us" and "Not Meant to Be", while Serbian Kristina has written songs like Serbian ESC 2011 entry "Čaroban", and Hungarian Olivér Patocska has competed in post-ESC A Dal Image
BONUS: Danijel Popović - "Kano kastigan"
While not in the lineup now, Daniel is in the back up list. The most succesful Montenegrin in Eurovision by far, he took Yugoslavia all the way to 4th place with "Džuli" at Eurovision 1983, and has since attempted a comeback many times Image
The following entries do not seem to have any links to previous entries:
Luka Perazić & Rade Vukčević - "Dva srca"
Luka Radović - "Kada dođe maj"
Tina Džankić - "Nova"
Dolce Hera - "Repeat"
Band 9 - "Stop War"

Backup list:
Tamara Živković - "Poguban let"
Hanibal - "Čuvaj me"
And that's all! Hope you enjoyed reading this thread. Make sure to give me a follow if you want to catch similar threads for all other national finals this season. Until then, take care!
Thanks to jkfa2 on Discord for quickly filling the blanks on some of the names!
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More from @dolphin_dane

Oct 11
Hello Mello 2024 Songwriter Deep Dive 🇸🇪🕸️📊
Trying something new with a non-Eurovision contest, though obviously heavily inspired. If this does well, I may do more, perhaps Kënga Magjike 2024. Of the 25 entries, 22 have Eurovision connections 🧵 Image
Valencia Montpaz - "Dancing All By Myself"
While Malin has written songs for Moldova, Lithuania and Croatia, Christian has been in Mello before, with David Lindgren's "Skyline" and Anton Hagman's Loreen-ending "Kiss You Goodbye" Image
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Sep 19
A fun little detail of Eurovision history. This graphs shows all Eurovision/National Final/Junior Eurovision entries ever, connected by their common songwriters. You see the small grey "tail" at the top left, only thinly connected to the rest of the network? (1/6) Image
Well, it turns out it represents Turkish entries from Eurovision/the long lost Turkish national finals! (2/6)


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The thing is, the Turkish Eurovision world didn't have any songwriter overlap with the rest of Europe. For most of Eurovision history this "tail" would have been an island, completely disconnected from the big network - but one man, Olcayto Ahmet Tuğsuz, changed that (3/6) Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 1
EUROVISION 2020 "WHAT IF?" SIMULATION RESULTS - A Thread 🧵📊🎶
Image
The results of my "What If?" 2020 prediction survey are here. After receiving eurofans assessments of all 2020 entries' jury and televote potentials, these results were fed to a model simulating the contest 100000 times. These are the average results of the simulations
While this methodology sounds simple, it managed to produce more accurate results than the odds for the 2024 contest. Thus I feel like these results serve as an accurate representation of our "collective wisdom" on the 2020 contest
Read 50 tweets
Jul 1
The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey 2025 - Participants results thread 🧵 Image
In this thread I will reveal the results of the survey, including the average participation chance and most likely artists to represent each country, all based on your predictions. I will be going from least to most likely participating country
Overall, you predict an average of 36.46 countries participating. You have 32 countries with a chance over 80%, 10 under 20% and 11 somewhere in the middle. For 44/53 countries, you have submitted enough artist predictions for me to compile an overall top Image
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May 6
The results of The Big #Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition are finally here! Who will qualify from the semis? Who will win the whole contest? How will each country do? All these questions and more answered through your collective wisdom. Take a look: 🧵📊
A quick note on the model: I collected 106 sets of predictions of each country's jury and televote potential. Based on your estimates, I simulated the contest 100000 times, taking into account voting patterns and running order. This thread contains the results of the simulations
SEMI 1 QUALIFICATION CHANCES:
Here are the qualification rates for semi final 1. As you can see, 🇭🇷🇺🇦🇱🇹🇫🇮🇮🇪🇱🇺🇵🇹🇵🇱 seem to have solid chances, while 🇸🇮🇨🇾🇷🇸🇦🇺 are more up in air. Meanwhile 🇦🇿, and 🇲🇩🇮🇸 in particular seem to have a tougher fight ahead of them Image
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Apr 1
The results of "The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey" of 2024 are finally here!
Based on the 248 responses submitted, 100000 simulations have been run in a statistical model simulating the 2024 as closely as possible. Here are the results! 🧵
SEMI FINAL 1:
Throughout the 100000 simulations, these were the qualification rates for each country. As you can see, the semi appears quite open, with 12 entries qualifying close to or more than 50% of the time. Our most typical 10 qualifiers are:
🇭🇷🇺🇦🇱🇹🇫🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇵🇱🇷🇸🇨🇾🇵🇹 Image
SEMI FINAL 2:
Throughout the 100000 simulations, these were the qualification rates for each country. As you can see, this semi seems more closed off, with clear qualifier and non-qualifier groups. Our most typical 10 qualifiers are:
🇳🇱🇨🇭🇬🇷🇳🇴🇧🇪🇦🇲🇦🇹🇪🇪🇮🇱🇬🇪 Image
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