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More from @WarintheFuture

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

Oct 15

China has commenced #JointSword2024B. In the past day, 153 PLA aircraft & 14 PLAN ships operated around Taiwan. 111 aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ. This is a record high in PLA activity. What might the People’s Liberation Army be seeking to achieve, and what might Western intelligence agencies might learn? 1/8 🧵

2/ Just last week, Taiwan celebrated its national day. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te gave an address on 10 October that included a statement that China "has no right to represent Taiwan" and that his mission as president would be to "resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty."

3/ After the speech by the President of Taiwan, the predictable Chinese Communist Party response arrived. Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Mao Ning stated that Lai had tried to “sell the fallacy of Taiwan independence,” and accused him of a “pernicious intention to escalate tensions across the Taiwan Strait for political gain.”

Read 8 tweets

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

Oct 13

The Australian senate recently released a report into support for #Ukraine. Overall, this is a quality report that describes many of Ukraine’s needs as well as Australia’s capacity to assist. 1/7 🧵 🇺🇦

2/ Support in the Australian community for Ukraine remains very high. As the 2024 Lowy Poll found:

“Australian public support for assisting Ukraine remains high. The vast majority of Australians (86%) continue to support ‘keeping strict sanctions on Russia’, steady from 2023. Eight in ten (80%) support ‘admitting Ukrainian refugees into Australia’, down four points from last year. Three-quarters (74%) support ‘providing military aid to Ukraine’, steady on last year.”

poll.lowyinstitute.org/report/2024/se…

3/ Australia can certainly afford to provide more support. As the Kiel Institute tracker finds, Australia is a laggard in terms of the percentage of GDP spent on #Ukraine assistance.

Read 7 tweets

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

Sep 23

This week’s strikes on Russian munitions storage facilities are part of the maturing Ukrainian strategic strike campaign. Long-range strike has been an important strategic adaptation for the Ukrainians since 2022. There is much other nations can learn from this. 1/17 🧵

2/ To inform this exploration of lessons, we need to understand the components and functions of the Ukrainian strike complex.

3/ There are five key components to Ukraine’s strike complex. The first is Reconnaissance and surveillance. The mensuration of targets is an important part of any strike system. You cannot strike what you cannot find or target accurately. The Ukrainians have become adept at this during the war. However, it is more than just access to commercial satellite date.

Read 17 tweets

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

Sep 11

In the past 24 hours, it has been reported that the Biden administration has finally submitted a strategy for supporting #Ukraine to the U.S. Congress. What is the current U.S. strategy for Ukraine, what might the new strategy look like and will it influence on the trajectory of the war? 1/19 🧵

2/ Currently, there is no published U.S. strategy specifically for the war in #Ukraine. After 31 months, the Biden administration is still using crisis management, speeches and slogans such as ‘for as long as it takes’ rather than developing and executed a clear, well resourced strategy for Ukraine.

3/ The key elements of the U.S. approach since the beginning of the war have been: 1. Providing military assistance to Ukraine; 2. Rallying international support to provide economic, humanitarian & military aid; 3. Leading development & implementation of economic sanctions; & 4. Avoiding a war between the U.S. & Russia.

Read 19 tweets

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

Aug 31

I have posted my weekly update with events in #Ukraine, Russia, and the Pacific theatre, as well as my recommended readings. Some key points in the thread below. (Image: @DefenceU) 1/11 🧵

2/ In Russia, Ukraine’s Kursk campaign continues although advances in the past week have been fewer than in the initial part of their post-break through exploitation operations. Russia’s response has gathered momentum.

3/ While there have been some advances, the Ukrainian incursion appears to have reached - or is close to reaching - the ‘limit of exploitation’ that I discussed in this articleback on 12 August. In that piece, I examined what Ukraine’s options were once that occured. These include defending all terrain seized in Kursk, selecting defendable terrain and withdrawing into that, and withdrawing back into Ukraine altogether. It appears that the second option is most likely at this point.

Read 11 tweets

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

Aug 27

The Ukrainian attack into #Kursk, now into its 3rd week, was a tactical & operational surprise for the Russians. But the Ukrainians also surprised their supporters in the West. And part of the reason is that many Western nations can’t conceive of such audacity in the modern world. 1/14 🧵engelsbergideas.com/notebook/ukrai…

2/ Ukraine also surprised their supporters in the West in large part because #Ukraine deliberately withheld details of the #Kursk attack to preserve operational security, avoid second guessing by talkative bureaucrats in the West, and avoid the inflated expectations of the build up to their failed 2023 counteroffensive.

3/ The operation is not without risks. The Russian advances in the Donbas, particularly on their Pokrovsky axis of advance, are taking ground and threatening a key line of defended cities in eastern Ukraine. Losing these would cause significant challenges for the Ukrainian defensive campaign in the Donbas and political challenges for the Ukrainian president.

Read 14 tweets

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