Crémieux Profile picture
Oct 17 23 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Massachusetts residents who go to vote this November are going to see a curious ballot initiative:

Repeal Competence Assessment Requirement for High School Graduation.

The initiative is being championed by Progressives opposed to standardized tests.

Let's discuss🧵Image
Firstly, who's sponsoring this initiative?

The officials are @SenWarren @RepMcGovern @AyannaPressley @RepLoriTrahan and @JimHawkins4Rep.

The unions are the MA AFL-CIO and the Teachers Association.

The organizations are MassVote and Progressive Massachusetts.
And what are their reasons?

The official website says having a high-stakes test as a graduation requirement is "ineffective" and "discriminatory". Discriminatory against whom?

(1) Non-Whites, (2) people who don't know English, and (3) people with learning disabilities. Image
The issue, as written by Lori Trahan, is that some students have fine grades and attendance, but they can't pass a test.

In frank terms, the proponents of getting rid of this initiative want shakier, more subjective graduation standards because objective ones feel bad.Image
But the vast majority of students pass this examination, if not on their first try, then on subsequent attempts

On a first go, 88% of the class of 2023, 81% of the class of 2024, and 82% of the class of 2025 passed.

And it's no wonder, because the test is easy.
On the English Language Arts section, you have to read paragraphs and then answer questions about them.

You are literally given the answer and told to mark it down. In 2024, this meant reading a portion of Song of the Open Read and then answering questions like:Image
An example essay question from this section is to write a few paragraphs about some essays on listening skills, in which you argue that listening skills are important.

You should really be able to do this after reading two whole essays on the topic.
The mathematics section is even easier. For example, you can just plug-and-play with arithmetic sequences: Image
The mathematics section hits students with questions like 'Here's a list of ten magazine prices. What's the range of prices?' or 'What's the median price?' or 'If you remove two magazines and the median is unchanged but the average goes up by $1, what might their prices be?'
In other words, the test is not hard.

In recent years, they've added a science and technology/engineering section that asks you about biology and physics.

The biology section asks if you paid attention in class. Image
You may not believe this, but the physics section asks the same thing: Did you pay attention to the basics in class? Image
Since more than 80% of kids pass this test, and the state IQ of Massachusetts averages 104, the mean IQ for people who fail the test will be about 91 if the standard deviation is 15.

But some groups, like English Language Learners, will make this calculation erroneous.
The real IQ threshold for passing, as a result, is a bit higher than 91. No big deal though, because that's still quite low.

The idea that this is a major barrier to kids' graduation should be regarded as pretty insulting to them.
Does this disadvantage "students of color"?

If that means Black people, then not really. They do about 0.7-0.8 d (0.76 in 2023, 0.78 in 2024) worse than Whites.

If Asians, then they do better than Whites, by (0.20 and 0.11 d in those years).
It might be the case that Hispanics are disadvantaged unfairly by not knowing English, because they perform a bit worse than Blacks, and that is generally only observed with really selective samples or a language issue.
But the solution to students not knowing English is not to get rid of the test entirely, it is to provide them with a translated test or a nonverbal test!

Incidentally, the state has produced translated questions in recent years, so this really isn't an issue.
Who opposes the initiative?

The governor, @MassGovernor, the Secretary of Education, @PatrickTutwiler, the former Secretary of Education, @JimPeyser, the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce, Mass. Assoc. of School Superintendents, the Business Alliance for Education, and more.
The opposition cites as its reasoning that, empirically, the scores on the test predict long-term success and they adequately measure students' academic skills rather than their socioeconomic backgrounds or school characteristics, unlike measures like GPAs and attendance. Image
Other opponents argue, cogently, that getting rid of standards for the whole state means acquiring subjective standards that vary substantially across it, and do not actually work for ensuring student success.Image
They also argue that teaching to the test is a myth and students should not earn diplomas if they aren't actually prepared. Image
Frankly, opposition to testing means opposition to gifted kids who might not come from a good background, who might not be able to attend school regularly, and who might be able to show they're ready for the wider world, but not through teachers' subjective measurements.
This initiative to strip Massachusetts schools of rigorous graduation standards and appropriate standards for using the only tool they currently have to identify the underserved is going to hurt a lot of kids if it's passed, just as it does everywhere this happens.
The only real benefit of getting rid of test-based graduation requirements is going to accrue to those who think everyone should graduate regardless of whether they deserve to.

They value equality for its own sake, and that's easily achieved, at a high price.

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Oct 17
"What happened in 1971?"

Nothing, that's just a common year people choose to mismeasure productivity and pay series from🧵 Image
Using nonfinancial corporate sector productivity and wages, we see the same picture indicating no stark divergence in 1971. Image
Simply using value-added and total compensation for the nonfarm business sector, you get a similar picture. Once again, 1971 is not special. Image
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You can see the causal impact of George Floyd's death on homicide rates extremely clearly using data provided by the CDC. Image
Q: How?

A: Probably a lot of things, including police 'backing off' from criminal enforcement.

Q: Isn't this just COVID?

A: No. The increase occurs in the month Floyd died, not the month COVID set in or lockdowns were called. Moreover, this does not appear outside of the U.S.
We can see the CDC's estimates replicated in FBI NIBRS data, but we have to caveat this because the data is lower-quality.

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Oct 15
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But in China, smarter people are actually less likely to start businesses🧵Image
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The smarter the founder, the more likely the firm is to expand, to get out of its founding province, to become listed on a stock exchange, and so on. Image
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Oct 14
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This and other ice cores can help us to learn about the past, including Phoenician and Roman history🧵 Image
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Read 15 tweets
Oct 11
OK, this is just absurd now. The Biden-Harris administration has attacked three emergency services agencies in a week because apparently these exams are too hard for Black people.

Want to see how hard this exam is? Let's look at some questions.

First up: Image
For the next two questions, you'll have to use the following information that you can reference at any time during the test: Image
Now can you... do basic addition and subtraction?! Image
Read 22 tweets
Oct 11
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AI might've also revealed why the Nazca lines were constructed!🧵 Image
For background, the Nazca lines are a set of exceptionally well-preserved geoglyphs and walking routes that exist in the agriculturally-unsuitable Nazca Pampa region.

The traditionally-known lines seem to depict things that make sense. For example, here's a spider: Image
Line construction is a practice from the region that's at least 2,000 years old and it results in lots of very interpretable pictures, like this monkey: Image
Read 18 tweets

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