Thread by @a_from_s

1/ From storage base to the battlefield - I’m back with a big research/investigation on Russian T-80 tanks. I’ve tracked the movement of these tanks and am going to uncover refurbishment rates and look closely at storage bases for more insights. Grab a coffee before we start :)

2/ I’ll start with refurbishment at the Omsktransmash plant in chronological order to understand what’s been going on there. So, in the summer of 2022, Russian cowboy moves in northern Ukraine didn’t go as planned, and it became clear that the sprint had turned into a marathon.

3/ So, they started preparing for mass refurbishment of old equipment. There are two repair plants specializing in T-80s - 61 BTRZ and Omsktransmash. The 61st was actually the main T-80 refurbishment facility and had a lot of T-80s in its own storage…

4/ …while Omsk dealt with limited-edition T-80BVM tanks. Things changed in 2022. They needed the closer 61 BTRZ to handle repairs of T-72 and T-80 tanks damaged on the battlefield, while Omsk, located farther away, was tasked with T-80BVMs. Shorter logistics chains.

5/ So, it began. The first batch of T-80 tanks from storage bases appeared in Omsk around August-September 2022 near one of the facilities.

6/ Every repair plant has some tanks in its own storage. Omsk, for years, had fewer than 50 junk tanks in a small area. It’s worth mentioning this, as we need to track the movement of tanks from storage bases.

7/ Let’s get back to August-September-November of 2022 and see what’s been going on in the backyard of the plant. The area was being cleared and prepared to receive tanks; by November, the first 120 tanks had appeared on site.

8/ I knew approximately where these came from when I saw them. There are only a few bases with large amounts of T-80BVs in storage and they have distinct camo. The tanks from 111th (1), 1295th (2) had the same camo as those in Omsk (3).

9/ Here’s a little July-October 2022 time-lapse showing the movement of T-80BVs at 111th, plus a ground picture of them (for reference). Ugly and nasty. The only way to get them running again is with a complete overhaul.

10/ The process continues, and by mid-2023, the number of tanks in Omsk has doubled—from 200+ to almost 400 (including the “indigenous” plant tanks I mentioned). Most are T-80BVs, though I have some doubts about a few, but it’s not statistically significant.

11/ Most are packed in the back, while others are being worked on near the facilities. Here’s the November 2022 - May 2023 changes.

12/ Where are these coming from? Normally, I would handle this myself, but analysts Jompy, Highmarsed, and Covert Cabal already did the heavy lifting, so we have some data to work with. I reviewed these bases, and their job seems solid, with only a few adjustments and additions.

13/ Here’s the table showing the reduction rate of T-80BVs:

14/ By mid-2023, all those bases were down by ~760 tanks. But that’s not all of them. 61 BTRZ had 350+ T-80 tanks in storage, which they began to move and dismantle in 2022.

15/ By August 2022 (I know, we reached mid-2023, but bear with me), the BTRZ was down by ~100 T-80 tanks. As you can see from the image, lots of barrels had been removed. Some were probably stripped before. By mid-2023, roughly 200 tanks had been moved or scrapped.

16/ As tanks at 61 BTRZ share the same camo, I believe some were transported to Omsktransmash. Most tanks moved to Omsk had this camo by mid-2023, indicating that not only tanks from the 111th, 22nd, and 1295th were brought in.

17/ Including tanks from 61 BTRZ, Russians took around 960 T-80 tanks from storage by mid-2023. But wait, there’s more! The 230th base in Sakhalin had 40 brand-new T-80BVs taken from storage in May 2023.

18/ Another 40 T-80BVs were taken from the 187th storage base in the 57th MR Brigade’s hometown. Whether they belong to an active unit is debatable, but when the 57th went to war, all their heavy equipment was gone—except these tanks. I’m positive they should be counted.

19/ Some T-80BVs were stored at the 349th base - the one hated by every OSINT fella due to potato-quality satellite imagery. So how many? I genuinely don’t know, but probably at least a battalion with up to 40 pieces.

20/ Now let’s sum up everything we know about T-80 tanks in storage:
- There were 1,400 T-80B/BV/U/UD at the 22, 111, 1295, 1311, 769, and 6018 bases (by Covert Cabal, Highmarsed, and Jompy).
- 350 T-80s at 61 BTRZ.
- Around 120 T-80s at the 230, 237, and 349 bases (added by me).

21/ That puts us at around ~1,870 T-80s stored outside before 2022, of which roughly 1,090 were taken from storage by mid-2023. Out of those 1,090 tanks, 350 were parked in Omsk, meaning that 740 tanks stored outside were refurbished or modernized to the T-80BVM Obr. 2022 level.

22/ Now let’s talk about modernization rates. If you have a more-or-less decent T-80BV tank stored outside, it will probably be refurbished. The same goes for tanks that are stored inside (we’re getting to that a little bit later).

23/ An old T-80 from the 111th base or 61 BTRZ will need a full upgrade, making it a good candidate for the T-80BVM Obr. 2022. By identifying decent tanks that just needed some tweaks and subtracting them from the 740 taken from storage, we get the T-80BVM production rate.

24/ Media claims Omsk produces about 15 T-80BVMs monthly, suggesting around 180 had to be produced by mid-2023. Let’s confirm or bust this estimate. Please, wait till I finish this thread before reposting or commenting.

25/ The ~120 tanks at the 230, 237, and 349 bases I mentioned were stored under tarps, and I’m positive they were in decent condition.

26/ The 118 tanks from the 6018th, 28 from the 769th, and 14 from the 1311th bases were also stored under tarps and were maintained properly.

27/ The 22nd had quite a few decent T-80BVs, along with some worse equipment. I assume most of the 192 T-80BVs taken from there were refurbished.

28/ Another 40-50 of the 279 tanks taken from the 111th were stored under tarps and well-maintained.

29/ The 1295th had at least a battalion (30+) of T-80BVs under tarps. I struggled to identify them due to a large number of T-62s also under tarps, but ground images show quite a few BVs, so my estimate might be on the lower side.

30/ So, we have around 550+ decent tanks, meaning 150-200 poorer tanks were modernized to T-80BVM Obr. 2022, or 12 to 17 tanks per month. I had to give this estimate some wiggle room due to mid-2023 satellite imagery limitations, as the pictures are from different months.

31/ With more imagery, I could refine the data, but as I’m working with open sources - enjoy what we’ve got 🙂

32/ Another consideration is the number 230 on a tank barrel from a Shoigu video in June 2023. I’m not sure if it indicates the 230th tank produced at the plant, but in 2021 (prewar), the Russians had 52 active T-80BVMs.

33/ I’m not too focused on this, as the number could have another meaning.

34/ As we approach mid-2024, there are some points worth mentioning. First - T-80U/UD. 193 of them were stored at the 22nd base, and the Russians started moving them around Autumn 2023, so that’s why they weren’t included in the mid-2023 count.

35/ Guess where they ended up? I checked the camo of a new batch of tanks in the Omsktransmash plant's backyard (1), and it matched perfectly. The same camo T-80BVs are still there, heavily cannibalized and missing barrels (3).

36/ ~60 turrets appeared near a facility between mid-2023 and 2024. One turret equals one tank used for spare parts.

37/ By May-Summer 2024, there were 380-400 tanks (including indigenous). The majority of good tanks were taken from storage by mid-2023, so let’s examine the changes from mid-2023 to mid-2024.

38/ I’ll reference @Jonpy99 and @HighMarsed research table since I lack 2024 imagery. During this period, the Russians took another 158 T-80B/BVs and 138 T-80U/UDs from bases, while the number of tanks in Omsk remained the same or even slightly increased compared to 2023.

39/ Early Spring 2024 imagery of 61 BTRZ shows not much has changed. Unfortunately I cannot share this exact picture.

40/ Here are the main insights:
- The modernization and refurbishment rate for T-80s for 2023-2024 was roughly 300 tanks per year (25 per month), with about 15 modernized to BVM level.

41/
- Around 850-900 T-80s remain at storage bases, Omsktransmash, and 61 BTRZ, with 80-90% in very poor condition.

42/ Given the crazy losses of T-80BVs on the battlefield, I believe most tanks stored in garages were moved out by mid-2023. I wanted to cover the number of T-80s in garages as there’s more to uncover, but this thread has grown too large, so I’ll save it for next time.

43/ Thanks for your attention! That’s it for now.

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Subtracting one from the other gives us 178 tanks produced by that time, aligning with the estimate.