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Prune60 Profile picture
@Prune602
Oct 18 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
I saw something I found funny that happened. But it takes a few steps to get there.

Here we go…

1. The Russian Ministry of Finance realized that they have an increasing deficit, and need to fine more revenue to cover their expenses
2. The Russian government then increased the mineral extraction tax on GOLD beginning July 1st 2024

interfax.ru/russia/987392Image
3. The Ministry of Finance is falling behind on bond sales to fund the deficit. Part of the problem is the reduced liquidity in banks.

Part of the problem is that Russians won’t put their foreign currency in banks, because they might not be able to get it back out again.
Because the Central Bank won’t let them…

I wouldn’t want to put my Foreign currency in the bank either, especially when the black market exchange rates are better than the official ones.
4. The Ministry of Finance moves to increase the deficit with no sign of how they’re going to fund it.

This makes it increasingly likely that they will pull try to pull more money from the NWF in order to cover at least some of it.
5. All signs point to likelihood that in December 2024, significantly more liquid assets than the planned 1.3 Trillion rubles worth.

The liquid assets are held in JUST yuan, gold, and a little bit of rubles
6. The Russian “Ministry of Finance announced the risks of savings in cash currency and advised buying gold”

😂

🇷🇺: PLEASE PUT YOUR MONEY IN THE BANK AND ALSO PANIC BUY GOLD THEREBY DRIVING UP THE VALUE IN THE NWF AND THE TAX INCOME I CAN EARN! 🙏

moscowtimes.ru/2024/10/18/nal…Image

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More from @Prune602

Prune60 Profile picture
Oct 20
‼️Part 4 of:

Alexey Sazanov & the Moscow Financial Forum! Image
Here’s the table of contents.

We’re on a bit of tangent still.
So we were talking about Kyrgyzstan and migrants in Russian, especially from the 3 largest sources of migrant

- Kyrgyzstan
- Tajikistan
- Uzbekistan

Together because Kyrgyzstan is the only one actually in the Eurasian Economic Union
Read 24 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
Oct 20
‼️ Time for Part 3 of:

Alexey Sazanov & the Moscow Financial Forum! Image
I realized I might as well just make a table of contents. Here’s where you need to find the beginning.
So we’re talking about the countries in the Eurasian Economic Union (besides Russia 🇷🇺 )

We talked about Armenia 🇦🇲

That leaves

- Kazakhstan 🇰🇿
- Kyrgyzstan 🇰🇬
- Belarus 🇧🇾

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_…
Read 26 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
Oct 19
‼️ Time for Part 2 of:

Alexey Sazanov & the Moscow Financial Forum: It got worse Image
You absolutely must stop and read this, which is Part 1 to see how insane this was all going (that poor cow)

The is the unexpected part 2
‼️ Russia: “The Ministry of Finance wants to impose VAT on all cross-border e-commerce”

But have you solved the cross border transaction problems?

interfax.ru/russia/987508Image
Read 26 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
Oct 19
‼️ Russia: “The Ministry of Finance believes that the effectiveness of tax increases can be assessed in 2-3 years”

OMG we have to talk about this article that I personally found hilarious.

Alexei Sazanov, Deputy Finance Minister, was giving a speech

interfax.ru/russia/987514Image
Here’s a picture of Alexei Valerievich Sazanov, who is also Chairman of the Board of Directors for the state distillery ROSSPIRTPROM.

rosspirtprom.ru/en/about/direc…Image
Setting the Scene:

Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Sazanov is speaking at session of the

👉 Moscow Financial Forum "Tax System 2025+. Course towards fairness."

And to me, things got funny while he tried explain the MASSIVE tax hikes that still aren’t enough Image
Read 53 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
Oct 19
‼️ Update 😂
‼️ Russia: “Corporate lending growth in Russia is not slowing down despite the central bank's expectations and its efforts to raise its key rate”

RCB: OMG! STOP LENDING!

Russian Banks: 🤔…no

moscowtimes.ru/2024/10/18/kor…Image
The “head of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said that corporate lending is currently accelerating and the regulator is discussing with the expert community the advisability of introducing macroprudential limits on such loans.”

RCB: Stop or I will MAKE YOU STOP Image
Read 5 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
Oct 19
‼️ The OFZ Federal Bond Thread: Russia’s Race to Secure a Loan!

Q4 Auction Day 3 of 13

Part 6: More Analysis

(Don’t forget to use your bookmark)

If you don’t know where the rest of the thread is, worry not! Image
Here’s the table of contents, don’t forget your bookmarks!
In Part 5 we were discussing the problem of the demand.

So there are a few possible reasons for the demand to be dropping.

We already discussed the fact that there were some variables related to what they happened to be offering, and the Central Bank meeting coming up.
Read 23 tweets

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