Joni Askola Profile picture
Oct 19, 2024 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/11 If Norway were to donate half of what it has gained from russia's invasion of Ukraine to Ukraine, the country could win the war. What is Norway waiting for to save the day? Image
2/11 Ukraine is confronted with a profoundly unjust situation, being illegally invaded by russia, which, after not achieving its aims, has now sought north korea's assistance in its imperial pursuits. Image
3/11 Ukraine is battling russian and north korean forces, backed by equipment from russia, belarus, iran, north korea, and china. However, there are no Western troops providing defense for Ukraine. Image
4/11 Ukraine's allies could take several steps to improve the situation, such as increasing aid and lifting restrictions. Notably, Norway has the potential to make a significant impact on its own. Image
5/11 Norway is in an unusual position, having offered considerable aid to Ukraine, yet this assistance seems trivial compared to the profits it has made from the war. In reality, Norway is among the few countries that have financially benefited from the conflict. Image
6/11 As one of the few nations that has financially gained from russia's unsuccessful invasion of Ukraine, Norway has both the opportunity and the obligation to do significantly more for Ukraine. Image
7/11 Norway is likely the only European country experiencing substantial economic benefits from the war in Ukraine, with additional annual revenues estimated to range from 50 to 100 billion euros. Image
8/11 Given its wealth fund's rapid growth from the war and a recent annual profit of $213 billion (!!!), Norway should significantly increase its support. The projected military aid for 2024 is only about $1.5 billion, which is far too low. It is pathetic that it is so low! Image
9/11 As Ukraine fights against both russia and north korea, Norway has the opportunity to play a far more significant role than its size implies by substantially increasing its aid to Ukraine. Norway has gained so much from this war that it could easily send dozens of billions. Image
10/11 Norway has the opportunity to make a significant contribution to saving Ukraine and the West, while giving far less than it has gained from this unjust conflict. This support would enhance Norway's reputation and help ensure Ukrainian survival. Image
11/11 Sources:
Politico - ‘Selfish’ Norway accused of Ukraine war-profiteering
Regjeringen - Norwegian support to Ukraine and neighbouring countries Image

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More from @joni_askola

Apr 27
1/8 The debate over Finland buying David’s Sling from Israel is loud and polarized.

To understand it, we must separate valid concerns from harsh military realities.

Here is why the decision was made and what the critics often miss: Image
2/8 Why buy it?

Our NASAMS batteries cannot stop ballistic missiles and have limited range.

To deter a neighbor like Russia, Finland needs to shoot down advanced threats.

We cannot afford to leave our skies vulnerable Image
3/8 Fair criticism exists.

It is valid to point out Israel's war crimes, illegal border expansions, and lack of support for Ukraine.

Israel is a complex partner with different interests.

These are real moral and strategic risks for Finland that we must acknowledge Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 24
1/5 Trump has made the West incredibly vulnerable.

With the US distracted in the Middle East and munition stockpiles running low, Western deterrence is weakened.

A nightmare scenario of China and Russia launching coordinated attacks is forming.

Europe must step up faster Image
2/5 The blame for this weak deterrence falls heavily on Trump, and on Europe for not doing enough.

Trump is an unreliable, chaotic, and fundamentally weak leader.

His erratic approach to global security and the failed war in Iran have weakened the West Image
3/5 A nightmare scenario is actively forming right now.

Imagine if Russia and China coordinate to make their moves simultaneously.

With Washington absorbed by the Middle East and lacking the missiles for multiple wars, autocrats have a terrifying open window to strike Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 22
1/7 Palantir’s manifesto is a terrifying glimpse into tech-authoritarianism.

They aren't just selling software, but dictating global morality.

Who do they think they are?

Who elected Alex Karp and Peter Thiel to run the world?

Europe should stay away from Palantir Image
2/7 The manifesto openly calls for an AI arms race.

Karp claims the atomic age is over and the new era of deterrence is built on AI weapons.

They argue adversaries will build them anyway so we must do it first.

A tech firm is openly lobbying for an algorithmic cold war Image
3/7 Palantir demands a universal draft so everyone shares the risk of war, and calls to undo the pacifism of Germany and Japan.

Even if you agree, why does a tech company have a say?

A data broker shouldn't be rewriting global security and enforcing conscription Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 21
1/5 You want to minimize casualties and end Russia's war on Ukraine faster?

The only way to do that is to provide Ukraine with more long-range strike capabilities, including both Ukrainian and European ones.

Delaying only costs more innocent lives Image
2/5 We need to fund more Ukrainian missiles and drones and help them scale up production immediately.

At the same time we must produce more missiles of our own to hand over.

We absolutely need to step up the production of cruise missiles like the Storm Shadow Image
3/5 We must mass produce cheap cruise missiles like the American ERAM program.

We should get creative too.

We could pre-order Ukrainian weapons for our own militaries, let Ukraine use them to fight today, and only take delivery after the war is won Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 13
1/6 Will Orbán's defeat stop the rise of illiberalism in the West?

His fall is a massive geopolitical earthquake, but to understand its true global impact, we have to look at why he actually lost Image
2/6 Orbán did not lose because of his pro-Russian, treasonous stances.

He lost mostly because his domestic agenda completely failed.

Hungarians simply had enough of low economic growth, high inflation, and constant lies.

He promised a lot and failed to deliver Image
3/6 Even his signature social programs failed.

His highly publicized, expensive birth rate policies were a total failure.

He built a regime on the promise of national greatness, but regular citizens were left paying the price for his economic ruin Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 9
1/8 The US is facing a strategic defeat in Iran despite "winning" militarily.

Terrible planning and a complete mismatch between military action and strategic goals led to this outcome, but the war may not be over.

A thread on where things actually stand 🧵 Image
2/8 Trump's planning was horrible.

The war started two months too late to help the Iranian people.

He had no troops ready to be deployed on the ground.

What did he think he would accomplish with just a bombing campaign? Image
3/8 You cannot win this kind of war and cause a real regime change without boots on the ground or without actively helping Iran's opposition.

Instead, we saw extremely inconsistent messaging from the administration.

Bombing alone was never going to bring down the regime Image
Read 8 tweets

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