Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Oct 19 18 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Important 🧵on our new peer-reviewed paper:

The pandemic is as bad as it ever was for babies - in year to Aug 2023, 6,300 babies under 1 were admitted to hospital wholly or partly BECAUSE of Covid.

They are ONLY age group where admissions have NOT gone down over time 1/17 Image
Our study, led by Prof @katebrown220, looked at all hospitalisations in England in children with a Covid diagnosis or positive test from Aug 2020-Aug 2023.
We then *excluded* all admissions where a Covid diagnosis was incidental (ie not why they were in hospital)
2/17 Image
Infants (babies under 1) are generally at higher risk from respiratory infections, plus they are the age group that, if infected, are overwhelmingly meeting the virus for the first time.

They are not vaccinated and have not had it before. 3/17
Over the whole period, Covid admissions in infants accounted for 43% of ALL admissions in children under 18 (19.7K/45.9K). 4/17 Image
As children gained some immunity from infection or were vaxxed (mostly teens), their risk of needing hospital fell.

But this doesn't help infants in their first encounter with the virus. In the 12 months Aug 2022-23, infants were *64% of all covid child admissions*. 5/17 Image
We also checked for evidence of underlying health conditions considered high risk by JCVI.

We found that by the most recent 12 months, 52% of Covid admissions in children over 1 had an underlying condition. But only 10% of infants did. 6/17
Most infants were in hospital for only a short time - about 2 days, but e.g. in last 12 months about 5% needed intensive care and 8 babies died.

We also found that children of ethnic minority background or in deprived areas were more at risk of Covid admission to hospital. 7/17 Image
So what are the implications? There is a safe and effective covid vaccine for 6 month-4 yr olds. It's part of routine childhood immunisation in some countries like US and Ireland.

It's approved in UK, but JCVI has not recommended its use. 8/17 Image
However, while personally I am in favour including covid vax in childhood programme, it's not quite that simple.

Firstly, newborn babies are by far most vulnerable and there is no vax before 6 months old. 9/17
US analysis has shown that Covid hospitalisations in babies under 6 months old are HIGHER than ANY other age group apart from over 75s! Similar to adults aged 65-74!

Almost 1 in 5 babies needed intensive care! 10/17 Image
Most effective thing to protect newborns is for their mothers to be vaxxed during pregnancy (ideally in 3rd trimester).

It's not perfect but far better than nothing & IS OFFERED in UK.

Read Vicki Male's doc on all vax & pregnancy questions! 11/17
drive.google.com/file/d/1_wHIYX…Image
In fact, pregnant women can protect their newborns against all sorts of nasty respiratory viruses by being vaccinated in pregnancy.

As well as Covid, there's flu, whooping cough, and - now - RSV! 12/17 Image
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Problem is that uptake is quite low. About 40% for covid vaccine & 42% for flu vax in pregnancy.

Uptake of whooping cough vaccine was only 60% last winter - 15% points lower than in 2017. This year has seen more babies died of pertussis. 13/17 Image
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We also know that uptake of routine childhood vaccinations in childhood is declining in England, and we've seen not just whooping cough outbreaks this year, but several measles ones as well. 14/17 Image
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Given increasing vaccine hesitancy, perhaps the most important immediate effort is to tackle that across all existing childhood vaccines and uptake in pregnant women- esp whooping cough & RSV, two of the nastiest things for babies (worse than Covid).

15/17
We need to be vaccine champions! Babies' lives do depend on it!

Then, in the medium term, I believe we SHOULD offer infants & young children covid vax so that those not already infected can meet their first infection (e.g. on starting nursery) with some protection.

16/17
In summary, our new paper shows clearly that for babies, the pandemic is as bad as it ever was.

There are things we can do to protect them, and we should.

Paper here:

17/17 jpeds.com/article/S0022-…Image
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More from @chrischirp

Sep 26
Prof @Kevin_Fong giving the most devastating and moving testimony to the Covid Inquiry of visiting hospital intensive care units at the height of the second wave in late Dec 2020.

The unimaginable scale of death, the trauma, the loss of hope.
Please watch this 2min clip.
And here he breaks down while explaining the absolute trauma experienced by smaller hospitals in particular - the "healthier" ICU patients were transferred out, leaving them coping with so much death.

They felt so alone.
Here Prof Fong explains how every nurse he met was traumatised by watching patients die, being only able to hold up ipads to their relatives and how it went against their normal practice of trying to ensure a dignified death, with family there.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 28
THREAD: I asked what the point of Public Inquiries is for @bmj_latest

We've spent hundreds of millions of £ on Inquiries over last decades, generating deep understanding of failures & 1000s of recommendations.

But v few recommendations get implemented!
What is going on?

1/12 Image
E.g. Covid-19 Inquiry has cost £94 million so far - and is projected to cost over £200m by its end (it still has years to go).

1st report published (out of at least 9) found major flaws and proposed 10 recommendations.

Chances are low that they will be implemented :-( 2/12


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Inst for Government looked at 68 Inquiries from 1990-2017.
The Inquiries cost over £630 million and made 2,625 recommendations.

Only 6/68 Inquiries have received full scrutiny by a parliamentary select committee on implementation of recommendations. 3/12 Image
Read 12 tweets
Aug 9
🧵War causes direct civilian deaths but also indirect deaths over the following years.

Recent paper estimates eventual total direct & indirect deaths in Gaza attributable to the war - 10% of entire pop'n.

I want to explain these estimates and why deaths must be counted. 1/13 Image
Why count casualties from war anyway? For moral, legal and strategic reasons.

1 - owe it to those who have died
2 - International law says must count & identify dead as far as possible
3 - monitor progress of war & learn from tactics

2/13 Image
There are direct and indirect casualties of war. Direct deaths include those who killed by fighting or bombs.

Indirect deaths are those that die when they would otherwise have lived because of one or more of: lack of food, healthcare, housing, sanitation, income, hope. 3/13 Image
Read 14 tweets
Aug 1
THREAD: the summer Covid wave in the UK continues.
Basically, there is a LOT of Covid around and not a lot of other respiratory viruses.

If you have cold or flu symptoms, it's probably Covid.

The latest hospital data from England shows steady, quite high levels. 1/8 Image
But admissions don't tell us how much virus is circulating more generally. The best (but imperfect) measure we have is wasterwater measurements, and only in Scotland and not England.

Scotland's wastewater is showing a huge July peak - highest since Omicron's 1st yr in 2022 2/8 Image
Because different people shed different amounts of virus and variants can matter too, you can't for sure infer how many people were infected between different wasterwater peaks. BUT given the size, I'd say it's pretty likely this is the largest peak since 2022 in Scotland 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Jul 23
THREAD:
I wrote about Baroness Hallett's Inquiry Module 1 report for @bmj_latest .

She found that there was *never* a plan to keep a pandemic death toll down - I discuss this and what it means going foward.

Main points below: 1/14 Image
The headline most seen is that the UK planned for the wrong pandemic.

While it is true that was far too narrow a focus on a flu pandemic, that is not the most telling bit.

To me the most telling bit, is what the plan did NOT do 2/14


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The issue is less the wrong disease, but that there was never a plan to prevent one at all – of any disease type.

The plan was *never* about reducing the number of pandemic deaths. 3/14 Image
Read 14 tweets
Jul 19
Quick thread on current Covid situation in England and Long Covid.

I have Thoughts about the Inquiry Report published yesterday but am still trying to organise them.

TLDR: high Covid levels remain, Long Covid remains 1/11
This wave is not over. While the number of admissions with Covid remains lower than the autumn/winter waves, it has now remained highsh for several weeks.

This means there are a lot of people out there getting sick - and having their work, plans and holidays disrupted. 2/11 Image
Scottish wastewater data to 9 July shows a sharp decrease, suggesting that prevalence might be on its way down.

Obviously Scotland and England can have different dynamics, but it’s the best we’ve got as long as England refuses to analyse its own wastwater. 3/11 Image
Read 12 tweets

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