Thread by @joni_askola

1/13 Despite its full commitment, russia's year-long offensive has failed to meet its objectives. Progress is unlikely to become easier in the future as challenges continue to accumulate

2/13 This map by @Tendar illustrate the outcome of a year of continuous russian offensives. russia has achieved a net gain of approximately 0.1% of Ukrainian territory and has not met its objectives.

3/13 russia still has not fully captured Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, or Pokrovsk, despite planning to take control of the entire Donbas region by now.

4/13 Ukraine's ability to advance so swiftly in the initial days of the Kursk operation further demonstrates that russia is fully committed to this war. Its intense focus on offensives has left it unable to adequately defend its borders with Ukraine.

5/13 This was russia's best opportunity, as Ukraine began 2024 without US aid, facing a significant manpower shortage, shell shortage and inadequate fortifications. However, russia failed to fully capitalize on the situation.

6/13 The future doesn't appear promising for russia, as Ukraine has mobilized and received shells that were in short supply just a few months ago. At the current pace, it would take russia centuries to invade Ukraine.

7/13 russia is struggling with recruitment and has increased signing bonuses multiple times. It's now using north korean soldiers due to its strained economy hindering mobilization. While that's pitiful, the involvement of north korean troops complicates matters for Ukraine.

8/13 russia is losing equipment much faster than it can produce, relying on old Soviet stock to replace its losses. However, that supply is beginning to dwindle, which will create significant issues in 2025 and 2026.

9/13 russia's economy is overheating due to a labor shortage, rising public spending, and sanctions. As a result, the central bank is set to raise its key interest rate to 20% or higher in the coming days.

10/13 Despite fully committing to mobilization, utilizing prisoners, and suffering over 600,000 total casualties, russia has failed to invade any of the 23 regional capitals and cities with special status that it controlled at the onset of the full-scale war.

11/13 Having to fight on its own territory nearly three years into an invasion it initiated on its own terms is, at best, pathetic for russia.

12/13 Putin is aware that russia's best opportunity for significant results on the front began a year ago and will extend at least into part of 2025. However, as time passes, it will become increasingly difficult for him to achieve anything substantial on the front.

13/13 Sources:
The Economist - russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out
@Tendar