The characteristics of the ideal trader I've been aiming for over the years, and how to get there?
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2/6 Many people have a misconceived image of an excellent trader.
Some think it's someone who trades intensely in front of a computer, sometimes angry, sometimes elated, winning these fierce battles.
However, the truly excellent trader I've been aspiring to be for many years is not like this.
This is because excellent traders fully understand probabilistic thinking, embodying it beyond mere knowledge. They don't shout with joy over single wins or losses, as they're not playing a game where individual trades determine a trader's success.
3/6 In probabilistic thinking, the trader's role is to be a reliable system executor, hence the need for discipline and consistency.
The trading journey is about gaining consistency, which encompasses all the skills necessary for trading.
Conversely, true consistency is the embodiment of all the understanding and skills needed as a trader.
A trader who has achieved true consistency has internalized the understanding necessary for trading, probabilistic thinking, system understanding and trust, and the scope of a trader's responsibilities. This deep understanding resolves all emotional issues in trading.
The ideal trader is one who has this true consistency.
They have several characteristics.
4/6 Ideal traders who have achieved true consistency:
・Don't fear the trade in front of them.
・Don't get emotional over results.
・Don't constantly stare at their P&L during trades.
・Perform only the necessary processes, then leave the chart and forget about the trade.
・Aren't attached to previous results, so they don't affect or carry over to the next trade.
・Don't care how much they've earned after a trade.
・Don't care how much they've lost either.
・Don't worry about how much they've earned in a week.
・Don't count losing streaks.
・Even if they've lost 10 trades in a row, they follow the rules for the next trade without thinking.
・Have eliminated everything except the necessary processes and feel nothing special about them as they're not particularly attached.
This state embodies probabilistic thinking and represents the ideal trader.
5/6 I've been aiming for this state for many years.
Currently, I'm in exactly this state, having lost all interest and concern about trading.
This might seem like a bad thing, but I haven't become lazy.
I've completely eliminated everything except the necessary processes for my trades, removing unnecessary excitement, desire, and expectations.
This has made trading very simple.
When I receive a trade settlement notification on my smartphone, I simply consider that trade finished.
I don't bother checking how much I've won or lost in that trade, so I don't know the exact amount.
As a result, it doesn't affect my next trade, and I don't suffer from overthinking or agonizing over the details.
I simply can't think about it because I don't know.
I'm not interested in losing streaks, and I'm only surprised when I look at the data later and realize, "Oh, I was in a drawdown then."
I can reach this state because I've thoroughly tested and practiced my system and completely trust it. I deeply understand (and accept) that I can't control the results, and I know that probability works very slowly and no judgment can be made until a large sample size is collected.
This deep understanding makes it impossible to be interested in individual results.
6/6 What makes trading difficult is ourselves.
Once you acquire true consistency, everything except the process is eliminated, and all that remains is waiting, confirming, and clicking.
That's all there is to trading, repeated for years.
It's not exciting, but you don't need that as a process executor.
What you need is a system with an edge and consistency.
Results no longer torment or worry you.
In this thread, I've introduced the trader profile I've personally been aiming for over many years. I hope it will be helpful for those who are considering trading with a probabilistic mindset.
I explain these concepts in detail in my book, so if you haven't read it yet, please do.
The existence of an edge in the market is inevitable.
Some people worry that the edge will disappear as AI develops or as more people use the same strategy, but rest assured that the edge will not disappear.
Why?
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2/5 First, as a premise, the condition is "having a certain number of participants," but in a market with a sufficient number of participants (even if they are AI), it is theoretically impossible for the edge to disappear due to market principles.
No matter how many people worry that "trends have disappeared," trends will always occur, and an edge will always exist.
The edge exists in market distortions.
These distortions will continue to exist in the future.
This is because it is the fundamental principle of the market.
The goal of all market participants is "to make money."
As long as this goal of the participants does not change, that is, as long as there are participants in the market, the fundamental principles will not change.
Today, I will briefly explain these market principles.
3/5 To make money in the market, you need to sell at a higher point than where you bought.
In other words, all participants need "time difference" and "other participants."
This may seem obvious, but think carefully about what this means.
For example, some people say that if more people use one strategy, that strategy becomes unusable, or that as AI develops, it becomes impossible to make money.
But is this really true?
Let's think carefully about what happens in the market at that time.
Characteristics that excellent traders always possess 🧵
How many of these traits do you possess?
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2/10
👉 They have rules to follow
Excellent traders don't randomly do different things with each trade.
They have systems or strategies with an edge, and they deeply understand that their job is to consistently follow the rules of the system, collect the wins and losses that occur with those rules, and let probability work to extract the edge.
If they do different things each time, it's difficult to obtain consistent results and they'll constantly be swayed by market randomness.
3/10
👉 They don't aim for a big comeback
Excellent traders don't think about recovering all their losses in the next single trade.
They consider losses and losing streaks that occur by following the rules as part of the system.
They've already tested with large sample sizes, so they can accept losing streaks and drawdowns as part of the system, and understand that denying these means denying the system itself.
Therefore, they don't have the idea of breaking rules to recover everything in the next trade just because they've had a few consecutive losses.
They well understand that doing so means letting go of a system with an edge and turning from a trader into a gambler.
"Trading in the Zone" is a renowned book read by many traders, and I've read it multiple times as well.
However, many traders miss the core message of this book.
I'll concisely explain the essential points of this book.
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2/8 Social media is flooded with copy-paste advice like “emotional control is key.”
And they simultaneously praise "Trading in the Zone" as an excellent book.
However, Mark Douglas clearly states something in his book:
"Excellent traders do not control their emotions."
Despite being stated so directly, many traders overlook this crucial point.
I'll introduce some important parts related to this.
3/8 "The difference between the best traders and others is that they 'don't fear.' I can't find any other difference."
He astutely observes that the difference between the best traders and others isn't superior systems or chart analysis skills, but simply "not fearing."
Excellent traders aren't afraid to begin with.
They're not using some amazing emotional control technique; they simply don't fear from the start.
He clearly states that the main theme of this book is "how to create a fearless mental state."
Begin with hope, let passion nurture you, and succeed by losing hope and passion 🧵
Preparation is crucial in trading, and passion is essential to thoroughly complete preparations that may seem tedious.
How your hope and passion will change.
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2/7 To succeed in trading, an edge system and consistency are essential.
An edge system is one that leaves a profit when winning and losing are repeated according to rules.
A system is a strategy turned into reproducible rules.
As short-term results are influenced by randomness, these need to be thoroughly tested in advance through large sample sizes.
This thorough preparation builds trust in the system and the proper mindset to utilize probabilities, while also honing the consistency needed when actually using them.
3/7 The first hurdle for traders is creating a system with an edge.
This requires passion.
However, many traders avoid tedious backtesting and try to make money immediately in real trading.
They eagerly repeat numerous trades daily, mistaking it for practice or improvement, but this is greed, not passion.
Don't confuse passion with greed.
If you have a passion for improving your trading skills, you must conduct backtesting and practice.
Any excuse to avoid these is rooted in greed and laziness.
Here's how to accept losses if you absolutely can't🧵
"Accept your losses" is often said, but many people can't do it.
Here's how to accept losses:
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2/7 You can't accept losses because you're trying to forcibly endure them.
You fundamentally perceive losses as bad.
This perception makes losses inherently difficult to accept.
When you view losses as bad, you either try to avoid them or endure them.
If you can genuinely believe losses are "good" from the bottom of your heart, you won't try to avoid them, nor will you need to endure them.
This is what it means to accept losses.
3/7 Even so, you're probably thinking, "I can't possibly see losses as good no matter how I look at it."
That's because your perspective is short-term and focused only on individual results.
A single loss right in front of you simply means a reduction in money.
This is unpleasant for everyone.
However, if your perspective is more bird's-eye and you understand how that loss is connected to future profits, your perception of that single loss changes.
Most of a trader’s job is waiting.
The key difference between an exceptional trader and others is the psychological state they maintain while waiting.
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2/7 Waiting for trade opportunities, waiting for profits to grow, all we traders can do is wait for the right moment to click.
Waiting is an extremely important part of the job, but many people become so fixated on the outcome that their psychological state becomes unstable while they wait.
When they're doing nothing, they panic and feel like they’re not earning, so they force trades.
Or, they close trades prematurely out of fear of losing profits.
This unstable psychological state during the waiting period makes it impossible to consistently follow the rules, preventing them from leveraging the system’s edge.
3/7 The root cause of all this is being too focused on the "outcome."
Our job is to always say “heads” in a coin toss that is statistically more likely to land on heads.
We don’t need to start thinking, “I’ve been winning a lot, so maybe it’s time for tails,” and then switch to tails.
No matter what happens, it’s essential to keep saying “heads.”
The reason this is difficult is that we are overly conscious of the "result."
If we were able to play this game repeatedly without knowing the outcome of each toss, saying “heads” every time would be incredibly easy.
This is the answer.