Sina Toossi Profile picture
Oct 20, 2024 23 tweets 9 min read Read on X
🧵A very important piece: an Israeli outlet reports severe morale loss and exhaustion among soldiers, with many now refusing to serve.

Based on interviews with soldiers and families across units, it's described as a "suppressed but growing phenomenon."

ha-makom.co.il/idf-droppings/Image
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2/ The piece opens with a striking anecdote:

In September, the Nahal Brigade began its 11th round of combat in Gaza, but out of a platoon of 30 soldiers, only 6 showed up—the rest claimed medical exemptions.

"I call it refusal and rebellion," says the mother of one soldier. Image
3/ The mother describes the sense of futility the soldiers feel:

"They keep going back to the same buildings they’ve already cleared, only to find them booby-trapped again. In the Zaytoun neighborhood alone, they've been there three times. They understand it’s pointless." Image
4/ One IDF soldier explains that the growing shortage of manpower means missions are "done halfway."

He adds, "The platoons are empty; those who aren’t dead or physically wounded are mentally broken. Very few come back to fight, and even they aren’t fully okay." Image
5/ The soldier notes that all of this was happening before the escalation in Lebanon and the current ground incursion.

He says, "I don't know with what army they think they'll enter Lebanon, because there is no army. I'm not going back to the battalion." Image
6/ The article states that this a suppressed but growing phenomenon of soldiers refusing to fight. The unity and sense of mission that once drove them has faded. "They fought until their last ounce of strength, but reached a point where they just couldn’t continue." Image
7/ Many parents say the soldiers' morale began to break down in April, as the war dragged on, and their sense of purpose started to fade.

"When they had to return to places we’d already been, like Jabalia, Zeitoun, and Shuja'iyya, it broke them," one parent explained. Image
8/ "What’s killing them are the conditions and the prolonged fighting without any end in sight," says on parent. "Not to mention the loss and the horrific scenes they witness in Gaza." Image
9/ One soldier says, "We’re sitting ducks in a shooting range. We don’t understand what we’re doing here...The hostages aren’t coming back, and it just feels never-ending—soldiers are getting injured and dying along the way. It all seems pointless." Image
10/ The article states that most of these soldiers refusing to serve (under medical exemptions) aren’t being sent to jail, and the whole situation is being kept quiet. Image
11/ It adds that after 12 straight months of a war that feels directionless, soldiers describe themselves as “black”—military slang for feeling depressed, exhausted, and drained of motivation.

"Today the motivation is zero." Image
12/ The article describes the situation Israeli soldiers face in Gaza: the only "music" they hear is the sound of air force bombs, and the air reeks of death and decay. They feel abandoned by the army, treated like mere tools on the path to "absolute victory." Image
13/ One Israeli soldier says: At a certain point, we were all exhausted & couldn’t see the purpose in going back to places we’d already been...Eventually, I stopped feeling anything. I lost faith in the system & no longer believed in what we were doing. Image
14/ The Israeli soldier recalls, "I was mentally exhausted, having anxiety attacks so severe that when they told us we were done maneuvering, I thought I’d get a break. I broke down, crying on a lawn, saying I couldn’t take it anymore. I was completely finished mentally." Image
15/ The soldier says his commander accusing him of "abandoning the country" & reprimanding him before the platoon.

But "the day," another "soldier came up to me and asked how I did it. He wanted to, but didn’t have the courage."

The next day, he left too. Image
16/ The shortage of soldiers has forced those who need mental health treatment to fight.

"My son went to his company commander & said, 'I feel like my alertness has dropped so much that I’m not only putting myself at risk, but also those around me. I’m not as sharp as I was." Image
17/ One father says, "The only way to stop this downward spiral or get some rest is to say, 'I refuse,' and then you're instantly treated like the most humiliated person on earth...It doesn’t matter what you’ve sacrificed, what you’ve been through, or what you’ve done." Image
18/ On the other hand, those who do manage to get mental health leave face emotional blackmail.

One soldier’s brother explains that when his sibling returned home, he couldn’t sleep in his room, barely ate, & was in severe mental distress--but still was forced to go back. Image
19/ Cultural differences among Israeli soldiers from different nationalities also complicate addressing morale issues.

One commander told his subordinates, "I come from a Polish family, where we don’t talk about feelings—that’s how I was raised, and that’s my way." Image
20/ A similar situation is unfolding with soldiers entering Lebanon. Exhausted, hundreds of paratroopers recently united to fight for "their rights", expressing anger, frustration, and distress over the lack of understanding about their urgent need for rest at home. Image
21/ Stunningly, these paratroopers entering Lebanon are being threatened with fines for military equipment lost or destroyed on October 7 or during the fighting and are denied new equipment until they sign that they are responsible for the loss. Image
22/ The piece ends with a powerful statement from an Israeli soldier: "If the treatment doesn’t improve soon, the little wind left in our sails will also disappear." Image
23/23 This isn’t the only Israeli report highlighting faltering morale and manpower shortages in the country's military.

These reports raise serious questions about the feasibility of Netanyahu prolonging the Gaza war or escalating conflicts with Lebanon and Iran.

/end🧵

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More from @SinaToossi

Jun 23
From the outset, Israel’s aims were unmistakable:

1) torpedo U.S.-Iran diplomacy;
2) drag Washington into conflict;
3) take out Iran’s nuclear and missile programs;
4) trigger regime change.

If the ceasefire Trump just announced holds—and is paired with serious U.S.-Iran diplomacy—it would mark a strategic defeat for Israel in launching this war.

Netanyahu took his shot. A desperate Hail Mary. And none of it has worked up until now.

Fordow was evacuated. The site may very well be intact.

And in any case, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and advanced centrifuges are now hidden, with a stronger covert breakout ability than ever.

The Iranian public has rallied in defense of the country and against foreign aggression.

If the government channels this unity into a new social contract, it could be transformative. If not, the old polarization may return.

Meanwhile, Iran has hit Israel hard over these 12 days: Tel Aviv, Haifa, the north, south, and other cities have seen major destruction. Military and intelligence sites damaged. Energy and research infrastructure hit.

Israel’s vaunted air defenses failed the test. Its reliance on the U.S. has never been clearer.

Netanyahu saw the costs of a war of attrition and blinked.

But for Iran, can any ceasefire be trusted?

Unless it’s tied to credible U.S. diplomacy—not maximalist demands—and unless Israel halts covert attacks and assassinations and continued airstrikes (a la Lebanon and Syria), this truce will likely collapse.

Trump helped create this mess by enabling Netanyahu.

If he truly wants to stop the region from being “destroyed,” as he just said, he’ll have to restrain Netanyahu and force a ceasefire in Gaza too.

Lasting peace is impossible until Netanyahu and his war-first approach is gone for good.Image


2/ REMEMBER: Netanyahu explicitly said Israel’s military operation in Iran would continue “for as long as it takes” to eliminate what he called the "existential threat of Iran’s nuclear program and arsenal of ballistic missiles."

That hasn't happened! Far from it. Image
3/ As the Economist noted: Israel wanted "at least" 2 weeks to destroy Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities.

It achieved neither.

Without regime change or capitulation, the war “makes sense only if it can set back” Iran’s nuclear program by years — and it hasn’t.Image
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Read 5 tweets
Jun 20
Iran’s missile strategy appears to be working: initial heavy missile (& drone) barrages drained Israeli interceptors, and now fewer launches are landing more hits.

This points to better accuracy, degraded defenses, and a shift to inflicting long-term attrition on Israel. Image
And from what I’m hearing from well-placed sources in Washington: Iranian missiles are hitting key military and intelligence targets in Israel.

Targets we don’t see footage of.

Behind the scenes, Israeli officials are reportedly reeling.
Reportedly, Iran launched 23 missiles at Israeli targets today—with all 23 appearing to hit.

Some were Sejjil-class, others reportedly new types unfamiliar to Israel.

No visible sign of interceptions.

Clear indication of growing precision and capability.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 11
🚨US intel is increasingly concerned Israel may unilaterally strike Iran’s nuclear sites without US consent.

Israel is no ally—it’s a strategic burden.

It isolates America, fuels endless war, and gives US rivals like China room to maneuver.

Polymarket odds just spiked to 50%. Image
Israel isn’t like Taiwan or Ukraine—small states on the frontlines against a US great power rival (which Iran isn’t).

It’s a pariah state with impunity: dragging the US into self-defeating quagmires, trampling international law, and weakening America in great power competition.
If Israel attacks Iran, the US should absolutely stay out.

It’s a war with zero benefit to American interests—only costs.

Our key regional & global partners oppose it.

The American people don’t want it.

It would hand China & Russia a gift, and wreck Trump’s agenda.
Read 11 tweets
Apr 28
🧵Aerial and drone footage from Bandar Abbas shows major damage at Iran’s most vital port.

Over 1,200 injured and 46 dead so far.

Officials say operations have resumed and port infrastructure is intact—only parts of the container storage area were damaged.

Latest developments:
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2/ Masoud Daneshmand, head of Iran's National Association of Transport Companies:

-"The explosion at Rajaei Port will not harm the import of essential goods; because less than 15 percent of our imports come through this port

-"No damage occurred to the docks in this explosion"
3/ Emerging facts: Separate explosions at Bandar Abbas hit containers 500–700 meters apart with no physical link, pointing more to sabotage than an accident based on the information we have at this stage.

Read 9 tweets
Apr 26
در ۱۰ تا ۱۵ سال گذشته، با شدت گرفتن جنگ سایه‌ای ایران و اسرائیل، نظریه «تله جنگ» استراتژی تهران را شکل داده.

با انفجار امروز بندرعباس و سوالات جدید، در ادامه نگاهی کوتاه دارم به خویشتن‌داری ایران، بحث‌های داخلی و شرایط حساس فعلی.

#رشته_توئیت 🧵>>>
۲/ بر اساس نظریه «تله جنگ»، اسرائیل به دنبال تحریک ایران به یک جنگ گسترده‌تر است، و ایران باید از هر واکنشی که سطح تنش‌ها را بالا ببرد، خودداری کند.
۳/ این طرز فکر به‌ویژه میان اصلاح‌طلبان و میانه‌روها در تهران غالب شده، اما بسیاری از اصولگرایان و حتی به نظر می‌رسد خود رهبری هم آن را پذیرفته‌اند.

خرابکاری‌ها، ترورها و عملیات‌های مخفیانه اسرائیل به عنوان تلاشی حساب‌شده برای کشاندن ایران به یک جنگ بزرگ دیده می‌شود.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 26
Over the past 10–15 years, as Iran’s shadow war with Israel has escalated, a key theory has shaped Tehran’s strategy: the "war trap."

With today’s Bandar Abbas explosion raising new questions, some quick analysis below on Iran’s restraint, internal debates & rising stakes.

🧵>>
2/ The "war trap" theory holds that Israel is trying to provoke a wider war, and that Iran must avoid retaliations that move up the escalation ladder.
3/ This mentality has particularly shaped thinking in Tehran among reformists and moderates, but also many conservatives and seemingly Khamenei himself.

Sabotage, assassinations & covert attacks are seen as deliberate efforts to lure Iran into a big war.
Read 8 tweets

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