From the outset, Israel’s aims were unmistakable:

1) torpedo U.S.-Iran diplomacy;
2) drag Washington into conflict;
3) take out Iran’s nuclear and missile programs;
4) trigger regime change.

If the ceasefire Trump just announced holds—and is paired with serious U.S.-Iran diplomacy—it would mark a strategic defeat for Israel in launching this war.

Netanyahu took his shot. A desperate Hail Mary. And none of it has worked up until now.

Fordow was evacuated. The site may very well be intact.

And in any case, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and advanced centrifuges are now hidden, with a stronger covert breakout ability than ever.

The Iranian public has rallied in defense of the country and against foreign aggression.

If the government channels this unity into a new social contract, it could be transformative. If not, the old polarization may return.

Meanwhile, Iran has hit Israel hard over these 12 days: Tel Aviv, Haifa, the north, south, and other cities have seen major destruction. Military and intelligence sites damaged. Energy and research infrastructure hit.

Israel’s vaunted air defenses failed the test. Its reliance on the U.S. has never been clearer.

Netanyahu saw the costs of a war of attrition and blinked.

But for Iran, can any ceasefire be trusted?

Unless it’s tied to credible U.S. diplomacy—not maximalist demands—and unless Israel halts covert attacks and assassinations and continued airstrikes (a la Lebanon and Syria), this truce will likely collapse.

Trump helped create this mess by enabling Netanyahu.

If he truly wants to stop the region from being “destroyed,” as he just said, he’ll have to restrain Netanyahu and force a ceasefire in Gaza too.

Lasting peace is impossible until Netanyahu and his war-first approach is gone for good.


2/ REMEMBER: Netanyahu explicitly said Israel’s military operation in Iran would continue “for as long as it takes” to eliminate what he called the "existential threat of Iran’s nuclear program and arsenal of ballistic missiles."

That hasn't happened! Far from it.

Iran’s missile strategy appears to be working: initial heavy missile (& drone) barrages drained Israeli interceptors, and now fewer launches are landing more hits.

This points to better accuracy, degraded defenses, and a shift to inflicting long-term attrition on Israel. And from what I’m hearing from well-placed sources in Washington: Iranian missiles are hitting key military and intelligence targets in Israel.

Targets we don’t see footage of.

Behind the scenes, Israeli officials are reportedly reeling.

🚨US intel is increasingly concerned Israel may unilaterally strike Iran’s nuclear sites without US consent.

Israel is no ally—it’s a strategic burden.

It isolates America, fuels endless war, and gives US rivals like China room to maneuver.

Polymarket odds just spiked to 50%.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1932925799965077963

Israel isn’t like Taiwan or Ukraine—small states on the frontlines against a US great power rival (which Iran isn’t).

It’s a pariah state with impunity: dragging the US into self-defeating quagmires, trampling international law, and weakening America in great power competition.

🧵Aerial and drone footage from Bandar Abbas shows major damage at Iran’s most vital port.

Over 1,200 injured and 46 dead so far.

Officials say operations have resumed and port infrastructure is intact—only parts of the container storage area were damaged.

Latest developments:

https://twitter.com/SinaToossi/status/1916100506851717565

2/ Masoud Daneshmand, head of Iran's National Association of Transport Companies:

-"The explosion at Rajaei Port will not harm the import of essential goods; because less than 15 percent of our imports come through this port

-"No damage occurred to the docks in this explosion"

در ۱۰ تا ۱۵ سال گذشته، با شدت گرفتن جنگ سایه‌ای ایران و اسرائیل، نظریه «تله جنگ» استراتژی تهران را شکل داده.

با انفجار امروز بندرعباس و سوالات جدید، در ادامه نگاهی کوتاه دارم به خویشتن‌داری ایران، بحث‌های داخلی و شرایط حساس فعلی.

#رشته_توئیت 🧵>>>

https://twitter.com/SinaToossi/status/1916100506851717565

۲/ بر اساس نظریه «تله جنگ»، اسرائیل به دنبال تحریک ایران به یک جنگ گسترده‌تر است، و ایران باید از هر واکنشی که سطح تنش‌ها را بالا ببرد، خودداری کند.

Over the past 10–15 years, as Iran’s shadow war with Israel has escalated, a key theory has shaped Tehran’s strategy: the "war trap."

With today’s Bandar Abbas explosion raising new questions, some quick analysis below on Iran’s restraint, internal debates & rising stakes.

🧵>>

https://twitter.com/SinaToossi/status/1916100506851717565

2/ The "war trap" theory holds that Israel is trying to provoke a wider war, and that Iran must avoid retaliations that move up the escalation ladder.

🧵In a striking moment at the White House today, Trump told reporters that direct talks with Iran have begun—and will continue this Saturday.

The implications could be huge.

Here's why this matters and what could really be happening behind the scenes.

>>> 2/ Trump’s announcement comes despite Iran’s Supreme Leader recently ruling out direct negotiations with the US under Trump, who not only pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal but also ordered the assassination of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in his first term.

🚨Some real bombshells on Iran in Steve Witkoff’s new interview with Tucker Carlson.

Witkoff reveals new details about Trump’s letter to Tehran and says a deal with Iran is achievable.

🧵>>>

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1903207340696014945

2/ Witkoff says Trump wants to “deal with Iran with respect, build trust, and avoid war.”

He emphasizes that Trump is “tough” and that the US has the capability to strike Iran but insists he’s not delivering threats.

Israel bombs Damascus again, calls Syria's new gov't "jihadists."

Message to the Arab world is: Israel's issue isn’t just Iran/Hezbollah—if they weaken, Israel will target Arab states freely.

Early signs show a shift in Arab strategic perception of Israel, first in decades.

2/ Saudi Arabia has long prioritized its rivalry with Iran, fearing regional instability and Islamist revolutions.

Yet, Iran’s allies haven’t threatened Riyadh since the Saudi-Yemen ceasefire, and Saudi-Iran relations have been improving since they normalized relations.

👇Reports from BBC Persian & other sources indicate that this incident involving a young Iranian woman was a tragic mental health crisis.

After removing her underwear, she was detained & reportedly taken to a psychiatric facility.

Per BBC Persian:

"Two eyewitnesses, who were present during the incident, shared details with BBC Persian that differ from accounts of an altercation with security. They said the girl ‘unexpectedly entered several classrooms holding a mobile phone, as if she was recording students.’ According to them, an instructor, upset by her unauthorized entry, sent a student to ask her intentions. However, one witness reported that upon encountering students, she ‘started screaming.’

One of the witnesses told BBC that when they reached the courtyard, they saw the girl had undressed. According to these witnesses, there was ‘no confrontation between the girl and security.’ However, they only witnessed the girl’s unexpected entrance into classrooms. They said they are unaware of what transpired before she entered the classrooms or what occurred between her exit from the building and her undressing in the courtyard.

These eyewitnesses arrived after she had removed her clothes in the courtyard. According to them, the girl told students inside the building, ‘I came to save you.’ A social media user on X, who appears to be a university student, posted that she said, ‘I came to save you.’

University and Iranian Media Response

Amir Mahjoub, the Public Relations and Protocol Manager of Azad University, denied any confrontation between the girl, whom he referred to as a student, and university security in a post on X. Mahjoub stated that he was present at the police station after her arrest and reported, ‘Her physical condition was confirmed as fully stable by emergency responders.’

Mahjoub then explained:

‘Investigations reveal that due to a mental health issue, she began filming her classmates and instructor, prompting objections. This has happened before. When faced with protests from students and security, she quickly reached the courtyard and acted disrespectfully... What actually transpired indicates that her indecent behavior was not due to hijab enforcement but resulted from students and security objecting to her unauthorized filming and photographing, violating the privacy of students and instructors.’

Iranian media, including ISNA, also reported that this ‘student,’ after filming students, faced objections and subsequently undressed in response to these objections. They cited Azad University, stating that ‘this student is under severe psychological distress and has been transferred to a treatment facility.’”

Link: bbc.com/persian/articl… 2/ A fellow student who witnessed the incident tweeted yesterday, "I hadn’t even been able to digest the "foursome" yet when suddenly a girl was completely naked in the middle of Science and Research :))"

(the "foursome" refers to a separate viral incident😄)

This woman adds>

🧵A very important piece: an Israeli outlet reports severe morale loss and exhaustion among soldiers, with many now refusing to serve.

Based on interviews with soldiers and families across units, it's described as a "suppressed but growing phenomenon."

ha-makom.co.il/idf-droppings/
2/ The piece opens with a striking anecdote:

In September, the Nahal Brigade began its 11th round of combat in Gaza, but out of a platoon of 30 soldiers, only 6 showed up—the rest claimed medical exemptions.

"I call it refusal and rebellion," says the mother of one soldier.

🚨🧵Today, Hezbollah launched its most devastating attack on Israel since the war began, targeting the elite Golani Brigade base south of Haifa, causing over 70 casualties.

Exact numbers of dead & wounded are unclear due to Israel's strict censorship on reporting such attacks.


2/ Israeli media reported that a drone struck the base undetected, with no sirens sounding before it hit the dining hall, where soldiers & officers were reportedly present.

Initial reports suggested Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi was there, but Israeli sources have denied this.

🧵Fmr Israeli General Itzhak Brik gives a scathing critique of Israel's war strategy, warning that Netanyahu is leading Israel to "collapse."

He says Israel is stuck in unwinnable wars of attrition, & calls for diplomatic solutions w/ Hezbollah & Hamas.

maariv.co.il/journalists/op… 2/ Brik warns, "Even conquering territories in Lebanon won't stop the war of attrition, as the IDF will eventually withdraw. Hezbollah will continue launching missiles at Israel from even greater distances than the areas we capture."

🧵We need an English-language exposé on Reza Pahlavi's monarchist movement.

He's like an Ahmed Chalabi on steroids, serving Netanyahu's agenda.

With little organic support, he's boosted by social media manipulation as vocal opposition against him grows daily, even in diaspora.

https://twitter.com/PahlaviReza/status/1843292214740521440

2/@thomasjuneau rightly calls out Reza Pahlavi's idea that there "won't be a power vacuum when the Islamic Republic falls" as delusional.

Pahlavi, son of the overthrown Shah, clearly hopes Israel will magically topple the Iranian govt, & he will take over

https://x.com/thomasjuneau/status/1843374249156981069

🧵 on the rapid developments after Iran's missile attack on Israel.

The coming hours & days will be crucial in determining if a regional war erupts.

Iranian missiles reportedly hit several military targets, including Tel Nof Airbase south of Tel Aviv, as seen in this video. 2/ Netanyahu, in his first statement regarding the Iranian attack: "Iran made a big mistake this evening and will pay the price. The Iranian regime does not understand our insistence on defending ourselves and responding to our enemies. We will strike back."

🧵on the latest in the Israel-Lebanon conflict from today:

This graphic from an Israeli analyst shows Hezbollah's increasing missile range into Israel.

Today also saw a reported Hezbollah strike on a target in Tel Aviv for the first time.

>>>

2/ Hezbollah announced it fired a Qadir-1 ballistic missile at Mossad HQ on the outskirts of Tel Aviv at 6:30 AM local time.

This clip from Israel's Channel 13 captures the moment sirens blared across Tel Aviv.

🧵Hezbollah has escalated its attacks, targeting the strategic port city of Haifa & expanding its missile range across northern Israel.

This surge, significant in terms of number & kinds of missiles fired & damage caused, follows a week of Israeli airstrikes & assassinations.





2/ As hundreds of thousands take shelter and the region shuts down, a local official in Haifa district warned: "I feel the equation is shifting. It would be a serious escalation if we end up in the same situation as the north."

ynet.co.il/news/article/r…

🧵Tensions between Russia & Iran have risen after Russian FM spokesperson Maria Zakharova confirmed support for the Zangezur corridor, a route that would link Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and Turkey, potentially cutting off Iran's border with Armenia and access to the Caucasus. 2/ The dispute highlights the one-sided nature of the Iran-Russia relationship. Despite Iran's objections, Russia has consistently supported the establishment of the Zangezur corridor since 2020.

🧵The list of Iran’s approved candidates for the June 28 presidential election has been released, with some surprising and interesting developments.

Out of 80 registered candidates, only six were approved.

But it could turn out to be a competitive election...>>> The list of approved candidates for Iran’s June 28 presidential election:

1. Mostafa Pourmohammadi: Former Minister of Justice in Hassan Rouhani's first-term administration and Minister of Interior in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's first-term administration. Politically, he has leaned more towards the moderate camp, but he has been implicated in the 1988 mass executions of leftist and MEK political prisoners.

2. Saeed Jalili: A hardliner and former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Jalili led nuclear negotiations and is the candidate for Jebhe-Paydari, Iran’s most conservative faction.

3. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: Currently the parliamentary speaker and a perennial presidential candidate, Ghalibaf has been positioning himself as a leader of the traditional conservative camp, making this his best shot at the presidency.

4. Alireza Zakani: The mayor of Tehran and a conservative, Zakani played a significant role as an “attack dog” for Raisi during the 2021 presidential race.

5. Amirhossein Qazizadeh Hashemi: The only official from Raisi’s administration approved to run, Hashemi is the head of the Martyrs Foundation.

6. Masoud Pezeshkian: A reformist MP and former Minister of Health under Khatami, Pezeshkian has the backing of the main political body of reformists. His success depends heavily on high voter turnout.

🚨BREAKING:

-Iran has reportedly halted all air traffic to and from Tehran.

-Flight radar shows significant reduction in passenger aircraft over western Iran & Israel.

Potential Iranian retaliatory strikes against Israel in the coming hours?





Some Iranian outlets report that a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) or no-fly status has been declared over Tehran; it seems that this declaration might be in line with a military exercise to confuse Israel for Iran's retaliatory operations.

The announcement shows different colors. Yellow indicates the possibility of missile and rocket encounters, purple denotes drones, and red signifies gunfire.

🧵I attended this very insightful discussion on a new book by about the impact of sanctions on Iran.

I have yet to read it (very much looking forward to doing so), but here’s a thread on some insights from Narges Bajoghli and @vali_nasr that stood out to me from yesterday >>>

https://twitter.com/SAISIran/status/1749460197163044988

2/

- Biden missed an opportunity to revive the nuclear deal with Iran when he came to power in Jan 2021.

-Biden thought that he could use the maximum pressure campaign to get Iran to fully comply with the deal first, and then offer sanctions relief.