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Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
@SimonWDC
Oct 21 • 15 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
Red wave 2024 update:
- 70+ polls in the averages, 31 right-aligned groups have released polls since August
- Polymarket, Elon 2024 escalations
- Late last week they worked the natl polling average, moved it down, started spinning early vote hard 👇 1/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/vp-harris-an…
Part of their new efforts to drive the natl polling average down is addition of a TIPP daily tracking poll. Predictably, and perhaps comically, it showed the race - all of a sudden! - breaking to Trump after 6 weeks of a remarkably stable race and a bad media week for Trump 2/
Last Wed I did a polling roundup. Polling continued to be remarkably stable. 538 natl average actually ticked up for us that week. We were +4 and stable in Econ/YouGov, +5 in Marist, +4 in Morning Consult, NYT, +3 CBS, ABC. Steady as she goes. 3/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-new-polls-…
Yes, some state polls had moved a bit towards Trump. But things were all within margin of error, things bounce around and Rs had been pounding the state averages, particularly NC and PA. Majority of recent polls in those 2 states R-aligned 👇4/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/vp-harris-an…
Even after "movement towards Trump" here is the @WashingtonPost battleground state polling averages this morning. The Post has a tighter screen on what polls they accept. It shows Harris at 270+ and winning. 5/Image
@washingtonpost Then last Wed a switch turned on and right aligned polls started flooding the natl polling average - Emerson, Fox News, Quantas, RMG, TIPP's daily tracker. Senate Rs dropped a natl poll to help out, as did whatever ActiVote and Atlas are. 538 moved from 2.6 to 1.8 Harris. 6/
@washingtonpost To be clear - the independent polls last week were +3 to +5 Harris. A steady, stable race. Then boom - red wavers dropped series of polls 2 to 5 points to the right of indep. polling and the averages moved.

This is exactly what they did in 2022. 7/

nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/…
@washingtonpost Since TIPP is now the tip of the red wave 2024 spear, let's take a look. "Talent on loan from God" - Rush Limbaugh's catchphrase. Here's a fun story from their site: "Harris’s Fiery Campaign of Rage Exposes Her Unpresidential Temperament" 8/
tippinsights.com/harris-exposes…
@washingtonpost Some other recent TIPP goodies:
- "The Left Is Still Obsessed With 2020 Election Deniers"
- "U.S. Government Pushing Climate Lies On Schoolchildren"
- "Night And Day: Trump’s Command Of Economy Exposes Harris’s Novice Approach" 9/
The American right hacked the polling averages in 2022 and are doing it again. 538 told us that even a bad PA TIPP poll should be included in the averages, and that it only moved PA 1/10th of a point. No biggie - except Rs have released 16 polls in PA this month. 10/ Image
The simple fix is to create a new category of polls, R-aligned, and keep these polls separate from legit, independent polls.

Rs have exploited the "throw it in the averages" approach again - 70+ polls, 31 different orgs.

We have to do better 👇11/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/vp-harris-an…
Another explanation for flood of natl polls last week - Rs started seeing movement from Trump due to his deranged behavior.

When a bad video for Moreno dropped RMG rushed into OH with his best poll of the cycle.

They flooded NC in days leading up to Robinson implosion. 12/
Perhaps the most important point of all - Rs would not be spending so much time and effort working the polling averages if they believed they were winning. 13/
Could Rs really be doing this?
- Rs have been lying about last election for 4 years
- They tried to overturn the election in 2020-2021 and attacked the f-ing Capitol
- Fox News is a right wing political org that has fraudulently pretended to be a news org for decades
Yes /14
On cue, a high-quality independent poll drops this morning with data consistent with other recent independent polls, showing Harris ahead, no slippage, and far more likely to win. 15/

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More from @SimonWDC

Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 12
So, a short thread about why it is so important to Trump that it be perceived that he is leading in the polls when he isn't.

In sum - it is his campaign's primary strategy to obscure his historic ugliness. 1/
Trump may be a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon but he is leading in the polls and is strong.

Trump may be a dangerous extremist, a bigot, misogynist and a racist but he is leading in the polls and is strong. 2/
Trump may want to end the global economy which has made us prosperous, end the Western alliance which has kept us safe, end American democracy which has kept us free but he is leading in the polls and is strong. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 11
Of last 15 general election polls released in PA, 12 have right/GOP affiliations.

Their campaign to game the polling averages and make it appear like Trump is winning - when he isn't - escalated in last few days.

Polling averages new post-Helene MAGA disinfo target. Image
I will have more data tomorrow but I urge journalists and researchers to dive into @FiveThirtyEight and see how the red wave pollsters have flooded the zone again.

MT, PA, NC were initial targets but now it's all 7 battleground states. 2/

This 2024 red wave op is much larger and involves many more actors and polls than the red wave campaign in 2022. It also involves new players - Polymarket, Elon - and feels far more desperate, frenetic, unhinged. Trumpian. 3/

x.com/SimonWDC/statu…

x.com/SimonWDC/statu…
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Sep 28
Remarkable number of GOP/right-wing aligned pollsters in the averages right now, and it should not surprise anyone to see them start producing polls showing, all of a sudden, the election moving to Trump and the Rs! What they did in 2022. Can't fall for it again this time.
Here's one of these GOP-aligned pollsters taking credit for helping move the NC 538 average to Trump. 2/ Image
Want to see what a coordinated campaign by right-wing pollsters to move the averages can do? Here is RCP's final Senate map in 2022. The averages had the Rs getting to 54 seats in the Senate. They got to 49. 3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Sep 24
As we head to Arizona this week a reminder that immigration rarely performs for Rs as a general election issue. Trump ended the 2018 midterms with caravans and fearmongering and we won by 8.6 pts. Voters available to us usually care about other issues far more. 1/
A majority of the country is reconciled to our more diverse future. Obama won with 53% in the vote in 2008, Harris is hitting 50% in many polls now. 2/
I also think people need to distinguish between what's happening at the border and immigration. The issue of the border has always been about control, making government work. You can be pro-immigrant and want tougher border controls. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Sep 23
On the NYT polls:
- PA +4, AZ -5 for Harris. Both states voted the same in 2020. 9 pts apart this time?
- Recent NYT polling has been 3-4 pts more R than overwhelming majority of polls.
- Here's most recent @MorningConsult battleground tracker: 1/

@MorningConsult This chart has problems.
- Polls from before the debate? We have post-debate polls like Morning Consult above
- 2 of 5 pollsters cited have clear GOP affiliation - Cygnal, Data Orbital - not noted as such
- NC Emerson poll has Harris up 1, 49%-48%. 2/ Image
Here's the NC graphic from Emerson: Image
Read 4 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Sep 13
Creating a narrative that he's winning not losing is now an existential issue for Trump and his allies:
- that is he winning and strong and that we are losing and weak is his entire campaign. He is nothing w/o it
- he needs data showing him winning to contest the election 1/
Investing in creating a false narrative that Rs are doing better than polls/data suggest is what they did in 2022, and we should expect them to do it again this time.

Dems should not be doing anything to help them red wave this election too. 2/

In a new video about the 2024 election I talk about how the national/state polling is good for us now and that if put our heads down and do the work we can have the election we all want to have - but only if we do the work! Enjoy! 3/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/kamala-won-p…
Read 5 tweets

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