Saul Sadka Profile picture
Oct 21 3 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Something seemed odd about the Iranian drone attack on the dining hall of the IDF basic training base, Camp 80, on October 13 that killed 4 IDF trainees.

How did they know exactly which part of which building in the sprawling camp to target and at exactly what time? They put the drone directly above the corner of the hall where the tables were laid out at exactly the time when dinner was served. How did they get that inside information?

Now we know... a trainee who had gone AWOL was one of the 7 members of a new immigrant family from Azerbaijan who were taking money to spy for Iran.Image
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The fact that the picture from inside the base leaked didn't seem surprising, as we are talking about a base full of new recruits, in their first months, aged 18-19, without any experience or much discipline. It is also not an "elite" base, and there were lots of medics arriving to deal with the 50+ injuries.
I should clarify:

My words above, "Now we know...", are too emphatic. I should have couched it, "now we might have a clue..."

We don't know. But we do have a plausible explanation, where before we did not. Ynet seem to have made the same inference.

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More from @Saul_Sadka

Oct 19
Iran barely failed to assassinate Netanyahu this morning, only because he wasn't where he usually is on a Saturday morning at dawn, in bed at his weekend beach house. If I were a senior IRGC member I know what I would be doing right now: Getting dressed up in my finest burka, and heading across the mountains to Pakistan, because this is what is called a casus belli.

This is the north facade of Netanyahu's Caesarea house, hit by an Iranian drone. Of the five large windows on the upper floor facing the pool, only one has had a steel and blast proof glass contraption added. Why might that be...

This leaked and now widely shared photo is clearly taken from inside Bibi's garden, by somebody with security clearance, which is almost as bad a failure as the fact that this drone got through, despite being tracked by an Apache, and without the local sirens going off.Image
This is his response to the assassination attempt, without addressing it directly, in a rare Shabbat broadcast:

A more explicit response. Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 18
With Sinwar dead, 31 of the initial 54 "playing card" leaders are confirmed dead (58%), others are undoubtedly dead too, but unconfirmed by Israel.

Assuming that the Hamas rank and file are dying at the same rate (in truth, they are certainly dying more), and taking the median estimate for Hamas' initial strength at 35,000, we can predict that c. 21,000 Hamas men are dead. At the at least 3,000 captured alive, and a conservative 5,000 severely injured, and we can see that Hamas are down to just a few thousand fighters.

The IDF has achieved this while losing 350 of their own, a kill ratio of 60 to 1, while keeping the combatant-civilian casualty ratio at a record low in modern warfare. Despite the unprecedented civilian setting and the weaponzing of the laws of war agaisnt them.

This is the real reason Hamas are done. Sinwar is just a trophy.Image
The only "household name" figures that Hamas has left are:

1. Khaled Mashal (in Qatar)
2. Abu Obeida (just a spokesman, a Hamas Daniel Hagari, not a real leader)
3. Mohamed Sinwar
4. Mousa Abu Marzook (in Qatar)
5. Husam Badran (in Qatar)
6. Osama Hamdan (in Lebanon)
7. Zaher Jabarin (in Turkey)
8. Ghazi Hamas (in Lebanon?)
So, with 31 dead and at least 7 in Qatar, Lebanon, and Turkey, no more than 16 of the original targets remain in Gaza. Probably fewer.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 14
To not offend some of the 1.5% of Michiganders who are Muslim, Harris picked a dud VP, Tim Walz, instead of Josh Shapiro—who would have sealed PA for her, but alas, is a Jew.

If she loses Michigan or PA by 1-2%—and with it the election—she will richly deserve her defeat.Image
As this poll shows, it didn't even help her. It was a bad play. As was obvious it would be. Stupid people are advising her.
If she does lose either PA or Michigan, there is almost no way she can win. She would have to win Georgia, or pull some very big surprise out of the bag. If she loses both, as the current polling implies she will do by a very small margin, there is no chance at all.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 13
The NYT reveals why Hamas attacked when they did and how they successfully tricked the IDF into complacency.

The 2023 weekly protests in Israel tricked Hamas into thinking that Israel was on the verge of civil war. It wasn't. The protests were part of the normal democratic process and looked much more dramatic and well supported than they were thanks to friendly press narratives. But Hamas didn't know that.

Hamas tricked Israel, but Israel accidentally tricked Hamas.

The net result of this dual information mismatch was Ocotber 7, and then the decimation of Hamas and now their Hezbollah allies.

Hamas and Hezbollah are both explicitly genocidal groups who had spent 20 years amassing suicide armies on Israel's borders, waiting to attack. Israeli society's inadvertent deception of Hamas, alongside the IDF's laughable credulity to Hamas' lies, accidentally saved Israel from a much worse joint attack that would one day have come.

Ocotber 7 was Israel's darkest day, but in 50 years, it might be seen as the day Israel was saved.Image
Image
This is from just 4 days before the calamity. Everyone in Israel knew that the pilots were bluffing and would obviously show up to serve in any war. But Hamas didn't know that. Image
Hamas set a small trap for Israel, and Israel fell into it. But the reason they felt able to set that trap is because Israel had inadvertently set a much greater trap for Hamas, and Hamas fell into that one.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 5
Other nations get to mourn their dead in peace. But Jews mustn't cry: Jewish tears are "weapons of war," explains the Guardian, memorials to Jewish dead are just rallying points for "limitless violence."

Jews don't count—and they don't get to count their dead either.
A new low. Image
Just imagine the artist designing this sick parody of a memorial to the victims of October 7, with the star-less flag ribbon and the faceless victims. @Freedland stopped writing for the Jewish Chronicle after 25 years over something far more trivial, and wrote a catty letter to the editor, @JakeWSimons . I am sure any day now he will hand in his notice at the Guardian.
It's not entirely clear what point Naomi Klein thinks she is making here.

That colonialism caused the Holocaust, and the Holocaust caused Israel? Is Israel thus just another terrible result of the Holocaust, which was itself nothing special, being just another result of colonialism? What?Image
Read 8 tweets
Sep 29
This thread from a month ago aged well, and faster than I imagined. The end game is here.

Hamas' Al Aksa flood didn’t flood Israel. Instead, it has been swept away by Israel's rising tide, dooming its Hezbollah allies and quenching the Ring of Fire that Iran spent 30 years building around Israel, crippling its own economy in the process.

Iran was playing chess, but Hamas didn’t understand the game and didn’t realize it was just a pawn. (1/14)
I wrote that thread a month ago because I realized almost nobody had any idea what the real game was.

People needed to know that Hamas and Hezbollah did not exist to "liberate Palestine." They were nowhere near powerful enough to do that. Their purpose was to protect the otherwise defenseless Iranian regime and its nuclear program from Israeli attack. (2/14)Image
Iranian air defense is two generations out of date and has been shown to be farcical in Ukraine. Their air force was designed in the 1960s and hasn’t been properly maintained since the 1970s. So to protect themselves, they disfigured the Middle East, from Yemen to Syria, setting up terror armies as proxies.

The plan was to have them sit on Israel’s borders and menace the country, offering an occasional show of force, but never enough to provide a casus belli that would invite a knockout blow from Israel. They were simply there to ensure that Israel wouldn’t dare attack Iran.

If Israel did, Hamas' Nukhba force and Hezbollah’s Radwan squads would breach the border en masse, with thousands of rockets raining down on Israel every hour. The price for Israel would have been to high, and Israel's preparations for such a counterattack would give Iran warning of Israel's intentions. (3/14)Image
Read 18 tweets

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