Thread by @chadocl

THREAD: A pivotal moment in the Ukraine war: North Korea has reportedly sent up to 10,000 soldiers, mostly elite special forces, to aid Russia's invasion.

This marks a major escalation in Pyongyang's support for Moscow. 🇰🇵🇷🇺

Full NK Pro analysis ⬇️
nknews.org/pro/what-north…

What's in it for North Korea?

• Combat experience for its soldiers
• Potential for future joint military drills
• Monthly cash payments of $20-30M from Russia (estimated)
• Outside of cash, more leniency on sanctions & likely also tourism

But it's a risky move for Pyongyang:

• Reduces readiness for potential conflict with South Korea
• Exposes troops to outside info, raising fears of ideological contamination
• Deaths of soldiers could trigger domestic anger
• Risk of war crimes damaging DPRK's reputation

The elite DPRK special forces, while lacking combat experience, are known for their:

• Discipline & endurance
• Infiltration & recon skills
• Specialization in assassination & sabotage

So their presence could be a major asset for Russia & a blow to Ukrainian morale.

South Korea now faces increased pressure to directly arm Ukraine in response. Though more hawkish extremes are supportive of this, can't rule it out.

This could cause Russia to supply advanced weapons to the North, potentially turning the conflict into an inter-Korean proxy war

What about others?

The U.S. & Europe will likely view this as a serious escalation, but their bandwidth to respond may be limited amid other crises.

Expect more weapons for Ukraine, fresh sanctions, and information warfare targeting DPRK troops.

China, whose relationship with North Korea appears to be deteriorating the more Russia-DPRK ties expand, is in a tough spot.

Beijing wants to appear neutral while keeping the DPRK in check.

But as Russia-DPRK ties deepen, Beijing risks losing influence over its neighbor.

Much now depends on South Korea's next move & the U.S. election.

• ROK weapons for Ukraine could internationalize the war
• A Trump victory might accelerate peace talks, thereby ending the need for DPRK troops
• Ukraine could start targeting DPRK assets in retaliation

This last point could be really the most unpredictable aspect of all.

It wouldn't take much for Ukraine to launch drone attacks from fishing vessels in the West Sea, for example, targeting DPRK munitions factories or the leadership itself.

Long-arm cyber ops also possible.

Bottom line: North Korea's entry marks an unpredictable new phase in the Ukraine war with far-reaching implications.

As unpredictable as Kim's regime is, one thing's clear - the conflict just got a lot more complicated.

Full analysis at NK Pro:

nknews.org/pro/what-north…