RISK ANALYSIS: President Yoon Suk-yeol's martial law declaration marks a watershed moment for 🇰🇷 democracy, raising risks of political turmoil + violent unrest.

A quick thread on key risk factors and what may happen next... based on my latest at NK Pro:

nknews.org/pro/what-yoon-… CAVEAT: At time of writing, 🇰🇷's National Assembly unanimously voted to revert the imposition of martial law and the ROK military and police evacuated the National Assembly.

But unclear if this means (1.43AM KT) that President Yoon will drop or plough ahead regardless.

THREAD: A pivotal moment in the Ukraine war: North Korea has reportedly sent up to 10,000 soldiers, mostly elite special forces, to aid Russia's invasion.

This marks a major escalation in Pyongyang's support for Moscow. 🇰🇵🇷🇺

Full NK Pro analysis ⬇️
nknews.org/pro/what-north… What's in it for North Korea?

• Combat experience for its soldiers
• Potential for future joint military drills
• Monthly cash payments of $20-30M from Russia (estimated)
• Outside of cash, more leniency on sanctions & likely also tourism

ANALYSIS: What the US charges against Sue Mi Terry mean for North Korea policymakers

This is a hot topic of conversation among think tankers and diplomats, so I tried to highlight the key implications yesterday.

Here we are (🧵1/x)

nknews.org/pro/what-the-u… For me the very most significant thing is not relating to Sue Mi Terry... but the way the FBI investigation shows that South Korea's NIS appears to use ROK think tanks to funnel money to overseas operations.

1/ AN OPEN SECRET: South Korean govt officials regularly use personal email for official business, risking security breaches & data leaks.

Despite fears of 🇰🇵 hacks, this practice is widespread across the government, regardless of some denials:

koreapro.org/2024/03/korean… 2/ 📩 The evidence is clear: Official govt business cards often display personal Gmail, Naver other addresses.

When they don't, staffers frequently scribble personal emails onto the cards.

While this would be a huge scandal in other countries, it's not seen as a concern in ROK.

THREAD: North Korea's end-of-year plenum offers crucial insights into its strategic direction.

Gone are the NYD speeches, replaced by multi-day meetings that reflect on progress and set future objectives.

A thread on the key takeaways & implications:

nknews.org/pro/what-to-ma… 2/12 🚫 Diplomacy with the U.S. and South Korea is off Pyongyang's agenda, as evident from the plenum.

Expectations are set for inter-K turbulent relations.

And there's a focus on expanding nuclear and missile arsenals -- while reinforcing internal economic resilience.