Artur Rehi Profile picture
Oct 22, 2024 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Sending North Korean troops to Ukraine could be a serious mistake for Putin for a number of reasons, one of which is the active position of South Korea. Seoul has declared its readiness to begin providing direct military assistance to Ukraine, including the supply of
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artillery, tanks and other modern weapons. South Korea is one of the world's largest defense powers with a powerful military-industrial base, whose products are in demand all over the world. South Korea's decision to join the conflict could significantly change the balance
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of power. South Korea has not only high-tech weapons, but also trained military specialists who can provide advisory support to Ukraine in the fight against North Korean troops. The South Koreans are well aware of the specifics of the actions of North Korean forces: their
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strategies, methods of warfare and the psychological state of soldiers under constant threat of reprisals. Moreover, South Korea can provide linguistic and intelligence assistance, facilitating interaction with the North Korean military on the battlefield. For Putin,
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North Korean troops may seem like a beneficial addition to Russian forces. North Korean soldiers are accustomed to strict discipline and unquestioning obedience to orders, even the most brutal and dangerous ones. Putin needs "cannon fodder", and North Korea can become a
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source of these resources. Russian tactics remain unchanged: the destruction of the settlements by aircraft and artillery, followed by ground assaults. North Korea has probably sent one of the world's most brutal special forces, which once guarded the father of dictator
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Kim Jong-un, to fight against Ukraine, Bild reports. The publication calls them "combat slaves", because they grew up in an information vacuum: without the Internet, communications, phones and Western TV. However, South Korea's intervention could lead to serious consequences
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for Russia. Sending its troops to Ukraine, as well as supplying weapons, could push other countries to follow its example. South Korean weapons and technology will give Ukraine a new advantage, and their specialists will help cope with the threat from North Korean soldiers.
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De-escalation does not work. Current methods of containing Russian aggression, such as a ban on the use of Western weapons to strike Russia itself, have proven ineffective. However, Putin's actions could become a catalyst for new decisive steps by the West. The United
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States has allocated a new $400 million defense aid package to Ukraine. This was announced by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. If restrictions on the use of Western weapons are lifted and Ukraine receives all the
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support it needs to fully confront Russian troops, South Korea could play a key role here, and its participation in the conflict would further strengthen support for Ukraine. Putin, trying to strengthen his position, risks receiving an even more decisive rebuff from
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the international community. However, the longer the community delays responding, the more Putin will escalate. Sending NATO troops to Ukraine for non-combat missions, such as guarding the Belarusian border, would help free up the country's resources to fight against Russia
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More from @ArturRehi

Oct 14
The Russian Ministry of Defense has drafted a bill to involve Russian citizens in the Armed Forces reserve in performing tasks during peacetime, RBC reports, citing a copy of the document. The government approved the initiative on October 13, according to a source familiar
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with the matter. The bill proposes that reservists can be called up for special training sessions by presidential decree. These “special sessions” are described as military gatherings aimed at fulfilling specific defense-related tasks in cases of armed conflict,
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counterterrorist operations, or the deployment of forces abroad. According to Andrei Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee, the bill expands the ability to use reservists in various circumstances. He noted that it introduces broad legal definitions that would
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Read 9 tweets
Oct 13
Russian Uralvagonzavod - the country’s main manufacturer of railway cars and also tanks (since Soviet times, Russia has had a tradition of dual-purpose factories, where the producer of metal buckets might also make artillery shells) - is switching its civilian workforce
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to a four-day workweek. The change will affect only employees in the railcar production division. They were offered to transfer to “other divisions with active orders,” since the situation is quite different in tank production. Uralvagonzavod, part of the Rostec corporation,
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is Russia’s largest tank manufacturer. After the start of the war, the plant switched to a three-shift schedule, and since August 2022 has been operating around the clock. Russia’s economy is increasingly shifting to a war footing, while its civilian sector is rapidly
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Read 7 tweets
Oct 10
Another sign of growing problems in the Russian economy. Next year, Russia will cut spending on the production and repair of aircraft by one and a half times — from 139.6 billion to 85.7 billion rubles. This was reported by The Moscow Times. “The Russian government plans
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to reduce funding for the federal project ‘Production of Aircraft and Helicopters’ by 1.6 times in 2026 - from 139.6 billion to 85.7 billion rubles,” the report says. According to the draft of Russia’s new budget for 2026–2028, spending will also decrease in 2027 compared to
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previously planned figures - from 109.7 billion to 86.9 billion rubles (a 21% drop). Funding is expected to slightly increase only in 2028 - to 89.3 billion rubles. The publication notes that the most significant cuts will affect state support for Russian airlines renewing
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Read 9 tweets
Oct 6
Europe still does not fully understand the threat posed by Russia. There has been growing talk of a possible attack on the Baltic states, but in reality, this threat is minimal - and the real danger lies elsewhere. Putin has found a grey zone, and so far it brings far
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greater benefits than any ground operation could. NATO has spent its entire existence preparing for a conventional war with infantry and tanks, but the main threat today is hybrid warfare. There is no need to launch missiles to paralyze airports or completely collapse
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a country's banking or energy system - cyberwarfare is a reality, not a fantasy from Hollywood films. Putin’s goal is to sow discord within Western societies, and hybrid war offers a wide range of tools to achieve that. His main target remains Ukraine, and he is doing
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Read 18 tweets
Oct 3
The Russians carried out the most massive attack on Ukraine’s gas production infrastructure to date, according to Serhiy Koretskyi, head of the Naftogaz Group. “It was a combined strike involving 35 missiles, including a significant number of ballistic ones, and 60 drones.
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Some were shot down, unfortunately not all,” he wrote on Facebook. He specified that the Russians once again targeted Ukraine’s gas extraction facilities in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions. As a result of the attack, a significant portion of the facilities was damaged, with
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some suffering critical destruction, Koretskyi reported. Company specialists, together with Ukraine’s State Emergency Service and other agencies, are working at the scene, and efforts to eliminate the consequences of the strike are ongoing. “This is the most massive attack
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Read 6 tweets
Oct 2
Russian actions around NATO borders and within its territories are becoming increasingly aggressive, and talk of a possible Russian attack on alliance members is growing. Russia is testing reactions to provocations, and so far NATO has responded with restraint. This is
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understandable, since a downed aircraft could serve as a casus belli for Russia. Moreover, it will give propaganda an opportunity to call people to rally around the national leader Putin to confront the “NATO threat” with which Russians have been frightened for years.
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However, for dictatorships, a restrained response often serves as a signal to act. There is no doubt that Russia cannot compete with NATO economically or militarily in the long run, but today NATO lags behind both Ukraine and Russia in the tactics of new-generation warfare.
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Read 17 tweets

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