Artur Rehi Profile picture
Oct 22, 2024 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Sending North Korean troops to Ukraine could be a serious mistake for Putin for a number of reasons, one of which is the active position of South Korea. Seoul has declared its readiness to begin providing direct military assistance to Ukraine, including the supply of
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artillery, tanks and other modern weapons. South Korea is one of the world's largest defense powers with a powerful military-industrial base, whose products are in demand all over the world. South Korea's decision to join the conflict could significantly change the balance
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of power. South Korea has not only high-tech weapons, but also trained military specialists who can provide advisory support to Ukraine in the fight against North Korean troops. The South Koreans are well aware of the specifics of the actions of North Korean forces: their
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strategies, methods of warfare and the psychological state of soldiers under constant threat of reprisals. Moreover, South Korea can provide linguistic and intelligence assistance, facilitating interaction with the North Korean military on the battlefield. For Putin,
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North Korean troops may seem like a beneficial addition to Russian forces. North Korean soldiers are accustomed to strict discipline and unquestioning obedience to orders, even the most brutal and dangerous ones. Putin needs "cannon fodder", and North Korea can become a
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source of these resources. Russian tactics remain unchanged: the destruction of the settlements by aircraft and artillery, followed by ground assaults. North Korea has probably sent one of the world's most brutal special forces, which once guarded the father of dictator
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Kim Jong-un, to fight against Ukraine, Bild reports. The publication calls them "combat slaves", because they grew up in an information vacuum: without the Internet, communications, phones and Western TV. However, South Korea's intervention could lead to serious consequences
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for Russia. Sending its troops to Ukraine, as well as supplying weapons, could push other countries to follow its example. South Korean weapons and technology will give Ukraine a new advantage, and their specialists will help cope with the threat from North Korean soldiers.
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De-escalation does not work. Current methods of containing Russian aggression, such as a ban on the use of Western weapons to strike Russia itself, have proven ineffective. However, Putin's actions could become a catalyst for new decisive steps by the West. The United
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States has allocated a new $400 million defense aid package to Ukraine. This was announced by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. If restrictions on the use of Western weapons are lifted and Ukraine receives all the
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support it needs to fully confront Russian troops, South Korea could play a key role here, and its participation in the conflict would further strengthen support for Ukraine. Putin, trying to strengthen his position, risks receiving an even more decisive rebuff from
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the international community. However, the longer the community delays responding, the more Putin will escalate. Sending NATO troops to Ukraine for non-combat missions, such as guarding the Belarusian border, would help free up the country's resources to fight against Russia
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More from @ArturRehi

Sep 4
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit has shown that a power capable of posing an economic challenge to the US and the EU has taken shape in the world, and it is directed from Beijing. Putin arrived in China for a four-day visit. Such a long trip by the Russian
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dictator is called, on the one hand, a triumph after his return from Alaska, where US President Trump solemnly welcomed him on the red carpet and did not impose sanctions. On the other hand, relations between Beijing and Moscow are not equal: China benefits from preventing
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rapprochement between Putin and Trump, but Xi also does not want Russia to grow stronger. The SCO is seen as China’s attempt to contain the US in the Indo-Pacific region and as Russia’s response to NATO expansion. However, experts acknowledge that this is not an alliance or
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Read 16 tweets
Sep 2
Europe once again demonstrates its toothlessness towards Russia. The incident with von der Leyen’s plane is a serious event, where the lives of everyone on board were put at risk. An excellent comment on this matter was written by Former Foreign Minister of Lithuania
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Gabrielius Landsbergis: "Deeply concerned to hear about the deeply concerning GPS interference that diverted @vonderleyen 's flight. Europe stands united in expression of deep concerns and must commit to the deployment of ever-deepening concerns moving forward." Expressing
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deep concern is the main tactic of the EU in times when decisive action is needed. I feel like a parrot repeating the same phrase – a tough response to Russia is needed. It understands only the language of force, and if this force is demonstrated, Russia will retreat. It is
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Read 11 tweets
Sep 1
Russia’s budget deficit has surged to around ₽5 trillion (about $62.5 billion). That’s 130% of what was planned, and there are still four months left in the year. Another round of inflation is expected this autumn. The central bank’s decision to cut the key interest rate
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in June has triggered a new problem—a sharp increase in household debt. Russian consumers typically lack financial literacy, and in hard times they don’t cut back or save; instead, they live day to day, as if it’s their last, without thinking of the future. It’s the classic
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Russian “avos’” mentality. Once the key rate fell from 21% to 18%, people snapped up new loans without much concern about how they’d repay them later. Everyone irrationally hopes that it’s temporary and will somehow resolve itself. This is all before even accounting for the
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Read 12 tweets
Aug 29
Russia has carried out its first successful naval drone attack on the Ukrainian ship Simferopol. The Simferopol is a medium-sized Ukrainian reconnaissance vessel. The Russians struck the ship in the Danube River estuary. One sailor has been confirmed dead, while several
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others are reported missing. A breach opened in the ship’s hull, causing it to capsize. The vessel was built on the hull of a Project 502EM fishing trawler and was launched in 2019. According to military sources, the strike was conducted by a newly formed unit of the Russian
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Ministry of Defense (We should call it Ministry of Offense) — the “Division of Uncrewed Naval Systems of the Rubicon Advanced Drone Technology Center.” This marks the emergence of a new and very serious threat to Ukraine’s fleet and coastal infrastructure. It is yet another
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Read 6 tweets
Aug 27
The fuel crisis in Russia will most likely only get worse. The first Russian region — the Kuril district of the Sakhalin region — has completely stopped selling gasoline to the public. Now, only special transport can access it. Remote regions are suffering first, since
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most of Russia’s refineries and storage facilities, as well as its industrial and economic centers, are concentrated in the western part of the country. With the increasing range of Ukrainian drones, fewer and fewer refineries remain operational. While there is still no
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shortage in the Leningrad and Moscow regions, panic is spreading across the market. On top of this, Russia is facing another headache — disruptions in air traffic, again caused by drone attacks. Ukraine clearly intends to paralyze Russia. The shortage of fuel in the Far East
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Read 7 tweets
Aug 25
Systematic destruction of Russian oil refineries by Ukraine is not only a response to Russia’s aggression, but also a signal to the Trump administration: Ukraine cannot be bent. With Trump’s return to power, the U.S. has been seeking a peace deal with Russia, pressuring
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Ukraine in the process. One of the first steps was a restriction on the use of American weapons against Russian territory, a policy approved by the previous administration. While not a formal ban, every ATACMS strike has to be cleared with the Pentagon, which simply does not
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authorize strikes on Russian soil. Most likely, under threat of cutting aid, Trump also demanded Ukraine halt strikes on refineries earlier, so as not to upset a “peace-seeking” Putin. But Putin made clear he is not ready for peace, sabotaging every negotiation, and Ukraine
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Read 17 tweets

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