Thread by @MartinSauerbrey

"Ukraine is finished." 🧵

Some say Ukraine has lost, some that victory is an illusion while others maintain Ukraine can win.
Usually they all have on thing in common: They look at the Ukrainian side in isolation from Russia. Thats bad practice.

While the dooming reached new heights during Russias summer offensive, Russia in fact gained little with the fall of Vuhledar the biggest success. Meanwhile the AFU were capable enough to launch a very well executed offensive into Kursk and managed to hold most of the

other strategic points. Russia is still keeping up the pressure while sustaining massive casualities but at least in Donbas and in the direction of Pokrovsk the advance has slowed down substantially. For now the AFU stands it´s ground and there is no reason to believe that that

will change anytime soon. Let´s wait and see.

When it comes to the war many focus on the problems Ukraine has, while taking it for granted that Russia is still the better of Ukraine in every metric.

But lets take a closer look:

"Ukraine needs us" is something that is repeated over and over again. And rightfully so. Without Western support Ukraine can´t go on. Right now it seems that support is coming in slowly but on the other side there are some quite interesting things upcoming as

France announced to deliver Mirage 2000 fighters and Australia pledge to send their old Abrams to Ukraine. US is low profile right now but after two devastating hurricanes amidst an election campaign it is quite obvious why they don´t announce big support packages right now.

Let´s wait and see who wins the elections. Nothing will happen before they are finished. The EU-parliament approved a loan of 35 Billion for Ukraine today. So things are happening albeit slowly.

In war both sides need allies to prevail. If Ukraine needs "us", Russia needs "them" - that is China, Iran, North Korea et. al.

And it needs them dearly to support its war efforts. Russias much vaunted and feared "war economy" is reaching it´s limits. Russian stockpiles of

weaponry are running lower and lower and it´s doubtful if it can produce new equipment in the same amounts as it refurbishes old one. Their hightech equipment can only be produced with help of China and others that go around sanctions and provide Russia with much

needed components. Iran provided drones, balistic missiles and other know-how. North Korea ammunition. All this was needed to keep Russia afloat.

And of course one of the most pressing issues - as with Ukraine - is manpower. It´s telling that Russia is not calling for open

mobilization. They try to bolster their troops with mercenaries and now even North Korean soldiers. Kadyrovs private army also plays its role. Why so? Because the Kremlin is afraid of it´s own people. Meanwhile the public situation deteriorates.

The "Wildberries"-case is a good example. In the very center of Moscow two competing mafia-gangs from the Caucasus (Kadyrow vs. Kerimow) have a shootout fighting for control of the most important retailer in Russia. Without dire consequences for both parties.

That does not sound like the Kremlin has everything under control, does it? And that´s just a harbinger of what is to come in the future.

Meanwhile China is also playing a doublesided game. Like the US is not supporting Ukraine in a way that it could "win" the war,

neither does China with Russia. To important are relations and business with the west that they would jopardize it by openly support Russia with everything it needs. China needs Russia as ally against the US but it does not need

a strong Russia. While Russia is dependent on Beijings help, it´s tentacles creep ever deeper into Russia, taking over large portions of Russias economy. The far east is getting more Chinese by the day.

Those developments do not go uncommentend and criticism of the Kremlin is getting louder with some very outspoken.

Even many BRICS countries are quite careful when it comes to more then words. Right now, Putin is trying to get them in line with China really being the center

of this ragtag band of dissatisfied countries.

Russian economy is also struggling, with train freight rates sinking, interest rates rising, the state screwing every taxe-screw tighter and tighter and the central bank struggling to keep the ruble afloat.

Russia has tons of problems and while Ukraine has them too, they obviously only count for Ukraine. Russia so far has likely reached none of it´s goals, while Ukraine is developing long range strike capabilities, outproduces Russia when it comes to drones, methodically forced the

Black Sea Fleet out of the western BS reopening the grain corridor, made Crimea a very unpleasant place to be, systematically attacked russian refineries etc.

Bottom line: Ukraines problems are real but Russia too is in deep trouble. It´s not the undefeatable Juggernaut many believe it to be. The Kremlin knows that. That´s why their propaganda is in hyperdrive, it´s supporters abroad are busily working on undermining support for

Ukraine. Exactly because they know that they can only win this war if western support breaks away. It´s their best shot. Otherwise the situation in Russia might deteriorate fast.

I stand by the assessment I made early this year: If Ukraine survives 2024 it will win. End

Thanks to @spartyflyboy for discussing "things" with me on a recurring basis. Thanks to @MKot316 for his sober reports on the situation on thefront. Many thanks to all the others who inspire me with their posts and thoughts...

P.S.: While Russia is busy sowing discontent in Africa, Ukraine is also activley countering their operations there, so taking a very active stance there too.