1) So Baris @Peoples_Pundit and Barnes @barnes_law had a good discussion today about what the early vote tells us.
2) How predictive is it? Well, depends. Perhaps in sheer numbers, not. Barnes rightly noted 2020 screwed everything up, people were told to vote early.
2) How predictive is it? Well, depends. Perhaps in sheer numbers, not. Barnes rightly noted 2020 screwed everything up, people were told to vote early.
@Peoples_Pundit @barnes_law 3) And now, predictably, early vote is down big, over 50% in GA for ex. Remember this was the steal mechanism for the mules.
4) Barnes noted that Louisiana's early vote is highly predictive of RACE margins, that it tracks very well with the entire south, inc. VA.
4) Barnes noted that Louisiana's early vote is highly predictive of RACE margins, that it tracks very well with the entire south, inc. VA.
@Peoples_Pundit @barnes_law 5) Using that metric, DemoKKKrats are in huge trouble. The black/white margin is going to be 15-20 points. In GA, blacks won't even crack 25% (were 35% in 2020) whereas white participation is up from 2020.
@Peoples_Pundit @barnes_law 6) And even while minimizing the predictive value of early voting, Baris noted that basically the entire advantage Ds used to have in an early vote in NV is gone. They are in deep trouble.
7) And in another measure, "low propensity voters," Rs are killin' it.
7) And in another measure, "low propensity voters," Rs are killin' it.
@Peoples_Pundit @barnes_law 8) These voters are making up 20-25% of all R early votes, meaning the GOP has a big election day reserve built up.
9) I disagree to an extent, in that I think the early voting, far from cannibalizing, is representing the vast expansion of GOP registrations.
9) I disagree to an extent, in that I think the early voting, far from cannibalizing, is representing the vast expansion of GOP registrations.
@Peoples_Pundit @barnes_law 10) That's why I think despite some of the cluckdugger DemoKKKrats you see here on X, the DemoKKKrats are peeing their pants about NC, GA, and especially PA. "We're winning the early vote" they say. Big deal. They are winning it by a FRACTION of what they used to win it by.
@Peoples_Pundit @barnes_law 11) Remember, Trump had such a gigantic election day surge in 2020 they had to manufacture votes in PA, AZ, GA, MI, and WI. The early vote is making that number so extremely high they can't print enough.
@Peoples_Pundit @barnes_law 12) Baris said the so-called "firewall" in NV is totally gone. Haven't looked in the last hour or so but earlier today Rs were actually LEADING in early voting in NV.
@Peoples_Pundit @barnes_law 13) I think it is much more predictive than B&B say. I think it is extremely reflective of voter registration numbers, that virtually NO pollsters paid attention to all year. Now they are.
14) And I think the panic in the Cackles camp indicates they take it seriously too.
14) And I think the panic in the Cackles camp indicates they take it seriously too.
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