Why is Biden focusing more on his base than swing voters?
A polling experiment finds some answers.
At first blush, Biden appears to have a higher ceiling than Trump. 43% say there's ZERO chance they'd vote for him, 48% for Trump.
For months, we've been asking people to rate their likelihood of voting for Biden or Trump on a 0-10 scale. We then compare the answers to come up with an alternative to the traditional head-to-head ballot, assigning voters based on their probabilities.
This nuanced view of intensity shows why Biden had an upswing in the polls: voters totally committed to him (Biden 10, Trump 0), went from 22-23% of voters to 27-28% starting in March, matching Trump's hardcore group.
Before, there was probably doubt Biden would be the nominee.
We're already starting with the takes about a high percentage of Republican primary voters signaling they won't support Trump in the general.
These numbers don't show what you think they show.
They are pre-Trump establishment relics, not new defections. 🧵
Haley is down to 20% while Trump has over 70%. It is what it is.
This is pretty undistilled hardcore Trump opponents and skeptics. Any defection in the general will come from this 20% but ultimately amounts to single digit percentages of Republicans.
But people who will vote in the Republican primaries != the Republican base in the general election.
In NH it includes a lot of independents who are crossing over to support Haley in the primary.
This shows why she's such a strong general election candidate...
The Hispanic realignment continued across party registration states, with the GOP reaching new highs in the first quarter of 2023 most places.
Approaching 60% of new registrants in FL, near 50% in AZ.
The Realignment is slowly starting to reach Black voters.
There's been a surge in the GOP share among new registrants starting after 2020 in FL & NC, two states required to keep race on file.
In FL it's surged from 5% to 14%. In NC, 4% to 8%.
#PartyofthePeople
In other states, likely black voters are identified by living in high black population census tracts, which are nearly all Democratic, but the trend is positive.
This of course totally ignores decades of education polarization and the 2016 and 2020 shifts. Certainly, "working class" voters as a group don't all vote the same, because of splits between whites and nonwhites, but they're all moving the same direction--towards Republicans.
If you look at 2020, the same holds: Biden +6 or +12 among 30-44s. Catalist has +18. +12 seems like a sensible middle ground estimate. That’s still a crazy shift right from the 2008/10 baseline.
And the argument back is that something like either a 10-15 point lean so deep into people’s voting career is unprecedented. That’s true. But we’ve also never seen an over 55 vote lean this far right—and they’re a bigger share of the electorate than ever.