After a few weeks of (relatively) lower intensity actions, the Russians have resumed offensive operations in the Selydove-Hirnyk area, south of Pokrovsk.
In the past few days, we've seen the Russians make tactical gains throughout the AO.
Selydove direction, a thread.
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In the past few days, we've seen the Russians make tactical gains throughout the AO.
Selydove direction, a thread.
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As said, after an operational pause and transfer of reinforcements, the Russians have restarted offensive operations.
They are taking advantage of Ukrainian lack of manpower and using infiltration tactics, sending small infantry units through gaps in the Ukrainian line.
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They are taking advantage of Ukrainian lack of manpower and using infiltration tactics, sending small infantry units through gaps in the Ukrainian line.
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The Russian advance here has been relatively rapid, over the past three days. Pictured is the confirmed change since monday.
According to unconfirmed reports, the Russians may control much of the grey area.
Confirmed advance is up to 2,6 kilometers, but likely further.
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According to unconfirmed reports, the Russians may control much of the grey area.
Confirmed advance is up to 2,6 kilometers, but likely further.
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Starting from Selydove itself, this is where the Russian pressure seems to be the highest. During the relatively slower tempo of operations, the Russians have attempted surround the town and cut its logistical routes both in the north and in the south.
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In the north, the Russian advance has been unsuccesful, leaving the North-Western route open for supply and/or withdrawal.
On the southern side it's very likely that the Novodmytrivka is cut and as of today the Vyshneve route may also be cut, or under fire.
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On the southern side it's very likely that the Novodmytrivka is cut and as of today the Vyshneve route may also be cut, or under fire.
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Within Selydove itself the Russian advance has been rapid. The Kara-dag brigade has announced that it holds the western and northern parts of the city.
Video evidence puts the Russians at the southern high rise buildings.
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Video evidence puts the Russians at the southern high rise buildings.
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https://x.com/DrazaM33/status/1849173879547433218
Should the Vyshnoe route be cut, as per reports, the Ukrainians only have one route open into and out of the city.
The Ukrainians can likely defend the remaining high-rise buildings for some time, but their position will be extremely precarious.
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The Ukrainians can likely defend the remaining high-rise buildings for some time, but their position will be extremely precarious.
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At this moment it's unclear wether the Russian advance in Selydove itself is due to an organized fighting withdrawal, a collapse of the defence, or something else, like individual unit commanders seeing the situation, making the decision to withdraw.
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It's possible that much of Selydove will fall in the coming days, but Ukrainian defenders may be able to hold on to parts of the city until November.
However, should the Russians surge forwards on the northern flank, any units still within the city risk encirclement.
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However, should the Russians surge forwards on the northern flank, any units still within the city risk encirclement.
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In the middle part of this sector, west of Tsukuryne and Ukrainsk, Russia is attempting to advance towards Novodymitrivka,
There are no major urban areas in the way of Russia, but advance in this sector presents problems for the Kurakhivka salient further south.
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There are no major urban areas in the way of Russia, but advance in this sector presents problems for the Kurakhivka salient further south.
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Should the Russians push further westwards here, reaching Novodmytrivka, the salient will become further and further elongated. The Ukrainian forces will also be pressed against the Kurakhivkske reservoir to their south.
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With Russian forces also moving on Kurakhove in the south, any advance in the Novodmytrivka sector will make a withdrawal from Kurakhivka-Hirnyk area more dangerous.
If the Russians reach Novodmytrivka and manage to pivot south, they can also start narrowing the salient.
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If the Russians reach Novodmytrivka and manage to pivot south, they can also start narrowing the salient.
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A significant problem in this central sector also lies in the fact, that all the natural defensive lines, and the fortified defensive lines that Ukraine has built up, run West-to-East.
This means that the Russians are now reaching the vaunted open country.
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This means that the Russians are now reaching the vaunted open country.
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To the south in Hirnyk-Kurakhivka, the Russians have entered the city of Hirnyk and are reportedly controlling a chunk of the northern urban area.
The danger in this area comes from the Russian advance in both Izmailivka and Novoselydivka
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The danger in this area comes from the Russian advance in both Izmailivka and Novoselydivka
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https://x.com/DrazaM33/status/1849078280604762464
With Russia moving to these villages, they have cut one of the two routes to Hirnyk, with the second route now running on minor roads through Kurakhivka and the fields close to the Kurakhivske reservoir.
Unconfirmed reports place Russia further west in Novoselydivka.
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Unconfirmed reports place Russia further west in Novoselydivka.
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With Russian pressure building up in this area, as well as south of the Kurakhivske reservoir, the Ukrainians once again find their supply routes threathened by at least FPV drones.
This might force a withdrawal further west, but as discussed, that has its own issues.
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This might force a withdrawal further west, but as discussed, that has its own issues.
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As of now the bridges to Kurakhove seem to be still standing, offering an alternative route of withdrawal and supply, but with the Russians advancing towards Kurakhove as well, one should not expect the bridges to stay up indefinitely.
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In general, the situation in the Selydove area looks very difficult for the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are already in two salients, and the Russian attacks seem to be gaining success
Once again Ukraine will have to make some hard choices about the right time to pull out.
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Once again Ukraine will have to make some hard choices about the right time to pull out.
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However, should Selydove, Hirnyk and Kurakhivka fall, the Russian offensive has a relatively open route towards the rear of the Kurakhove - Andriivka - Oleksiivka defensive line.
This, in turn, creates a danger for the whole of southern Donetsk still in Ukrainian hands.
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This, in turn, creates a danger for the whole of southern Donetsk still in Ukrainian hands.
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To the north the fall of Selydove would open up the rest of the supply route for Russian offensive on Pokrovsk.
On the other hand, even though the Russians mainly attack on foot, the mud season is on its way. That will start impacting the Russian logistics at some point.
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On the other hand, even though the Russians mainly attack on foot, the mud season is on its way. That will start impacting the Russian logistics at some point.
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If the Russians have the manpower, reserves and ammunition to move at an improved pace, as we saw in August and September, it's likely that the Ukrainian position in Southern Donetsk will deteriorate in the coming weeks.
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However, if the Russian forces are themselves nearing exhaustion, and the rotation or reinforcement of the units on the on the front line has not been as succesful as they would've hoped, we might only be looking at Ukraine losing a few minor cities.
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In any case, there are some hard days and weeks ahead for the Ukrainian defenders in Southern Donetsk.
This thread, as most all my SITREP threads was done in cooperation with the rest of the @Black_BirdGroup
23/23
This thread, as most all my SITREP threads was done in cooperation with the rest of the @Black_BirdGroup
23/23
And as always, we thank @wihurinrahasto for their generous grant, which has once again made it possible for us to run our operation and have @Inkvisiit as our only paid analyst.
24/23
24/23
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