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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Oct 24 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
NEW: The adoption of the Kazan Declaration on the second day of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan on October 23 demonstrated that Russia has not yet secured the international support nor created the alternative security structure that the Kremlin desires. (1/3)Image
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2/ President Xi Jinping reiterated the People’s Republic of China's (PRC) longstanding position calling for de-escalation in Ukraine and discouraged the involvement of third parties in the war amid reports of Russia preparing to deploy North Korean troops to Ukraine.
3/ Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated Iran’s intentions to increase ties with Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) at the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23.

Latest on Ukraine: isw.pub/UkrWar102324Image

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Oct 25
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to deny the presence of North Korean military personnel in Russia on October 24, amid official Ukrainian reports that the first North Korean military units arrived in Kursk Oblast on October 23.

More key takeaways ⬇️(1/5)Image
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2/ Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko strongly hinted that Belarusian forces will not fight in Ukraine and appeared to question Russian President Vladimir Putin's likely efforts to introduce North Korean forces into Russia's war against Ukraine in the process.
3/ The Kremlin is reportedly attempting to portray the BRICS summit in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan as evidence of widespread international support for Russia – especially to domestic audiences in Russia.
Read 5 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Oct 24
A parliamentary victory for the Russia-friendly Georgia Dream party would represent a significant soft power victory for Russia, showcasing its ability to coerce neighboring countries and deter them from pursuing Western integration paths in the long run. (🧵1/9)
2/ A victory for the Georgian Dream would also show that the Kremlin is able to leverage the invasion and partial occupation of neighboring states to shape their political orientations.
3/ Increasing Kremlin alignment in a post-Soviet country that has long sought Western integration would further cement the long-standing Russian portrayal of its now-sovereign former colonies as vassal states – a framing that seeks to deter both domestic interest in Western cooperation and Western willingness to pursue closer relations with these countries.
Read 9 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Oct 22
NEW: Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes on the night of October 21 to 22 targeting distilleries in Russia that reportedly manufacture products for the Russian military. 🧵(1/7)Image
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2/ Tula Oblast Governor Dmitry Milyaev claimed that a Ukrainian drone strike damaged distilleries in Yefremov and Luzhlovsky.
3/ Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that the Ukrainian drone strike also damaged local Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) and Federal Security Service (FSB) buildings near the distillery in Yefremov.
Read 7 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Oct 22
"[ISW] found that drone strikes on the Kherson region notably increased around mid-July 2024. That coincides with when Ukrainian forces began to withdraw from positions on the Russian-occupied eastern side of the river, in the village of Krynky, in early July 2024." @CNN 🧵(1/9) https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/22/europe/russia-deliberately-attacking-civilians-drones-kherson-intl-cmd/index.html
2/ "Drone attacks on ordinary people living [in Kherson] have sharply increased since the beginning of fall, with residents reporting Russian drone attacks on pedestrians, cars, buses and even an ambulance, according to local officials."
3/ "Russia attacked the area with more than 2,700 drones in September and had already launched 1,500 this month by October 17, according to the head of the Kherson region’s military administration, Oleksandr Prokudin."
Read 9 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Oct 19
NEW: South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported that North Korea transferred roughly 1,500 North Korean special forces to eastern Russia, where they are reportedly training before deploying to participate in Russia's war against Ukraine. 🧵(1/7)Image
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2/ The NIS stated on October 18 that seven Russian Pacific Fleet ships transported roughly 1,500 North Korean special forces from Chongjin, Hamhung, and Musudan in North Korea to Vladivostok, Russia between October 8 and 13 and that North Korea will send a second batch of military personnel to Russia soon.
3/ The NIS stated that North Korean servicemembers are currently stationed in Vladivostok, Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk, and Blagoveshchensk in eastern Russia. The NIS stated that the Russian military has issued the North Korean personnel Russian uniforms, weapons, and fake identification cards claiming that the North Koreans are residents of the Sakha and Buryatia republics.
Read 9 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Oct 15
NEW: Moldova stands to advance its path towards European integration in the upcoming October 2024 presidential election and referendum, but will likely remain a battleground state into the 2030s as EU membership negotiations continue. (🧵1/6) Image
2/ The possible reelection of pro-Western Moldovan President Maia Sandu and passing of the pro-EU referendum in October 2024 will not set Moldova's EU path in stone.
3/ The Kremlin has recently been trying to sabotage Moldova’s EU accession and destabilize Moldovan democracy. The Kremlin is unlikely to cease its influence operations and may instead increase its efforts to reverse pro-EU trends in the coming decade.
Read 6 tweets

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