Thread by @emilkastehelmi

Recently, it has been said that North Korean troops in Ukraine are a sign of Russia’s weakness.

While this arrangement naturally proves once again that the war isn’t going as Russia initially wanted, I view this as a practical solution rather than just simple weakness. 1/

Russia's problems shouldn't, of course, be downplayed.

You don’t have to be Clausewitz to understand that the quick operation to subjugate Ukraine isn’t going very well, when you hear the words “North Korean troops will likely soon arrive in Kursk to help Russia”. 2/

However, this isn’t a relevant way to approach the matter. From Russia’s perspective, there are many benefits in cooperating with the North Koreans.

North Korea has already had a significant impact on Russia’s capabilities by selling them millions of artillery shells. 3/

North Korea has basically enabled the Russians to sustain their artillery advantage over the Ukrainians, even though the ammo quality has varied significantly. Reportedly many of the artillery shells have been duds. North Korean missiles have also been used against Ukraine. 4/

The North Korean soldiers should be seen as a pragmatic continuation of previous cooperation, and as additional resources that reduce the burden. Someone has to die on the battlefield, and from the Russian viewpoint, it’s of course better if the someone is not Russian. 5/

Russia has had to increase the amount they pay for new volunteer soldiers. If they can’t recruit enough troops on a voluntary basis, they may have to do a new round of mobilization. This is something the Russians want to avoid, because it’d be politically unpopular. 6/

Losses have to be replaced in a way or another. It is possible that North Korea offers soldiers at a competitive price. When the Russians examine direct and opportunity costs, sourcing troops from North Korea can appear as a potential option. 7/

It has been mentioned that up to 12 000 North Korean soldiers may arrive in Russia. It’s possible that this is only the first batch, and more could come in the future. There are also other information gaps, which determine the actual effectiveness of the arriving forces. 8/

Whatever the arrangements are, the situation creates many positive possibilities for North Korea.

Firstly, the Korean People's Army can acquire valuable combat experience of a modern conventional war, possibly even against western equipment, which it can’t get anywhere else. 9/

Secondly, depending on the deal, it can get political influence, monetary compensation or other resources. Also deepening military technology cooperation with Russia could be valuable to North Korea. Additionally, there can be propaganda benefits here for the home front. 10/

If the price for this is a few thousand soldiers killed or wounded, that’s something North Korea can very likely handle.

In other words, the latest developments can be seen as mutually beneficial and understandable, instead of Russia being particularly weak or fragile. 11/

It should be remembered, though, that the arrangements have taken place because Russia has suffered heavy casualties during the war, and there are new potential threats that they have to consider, such as stronger incursions over the state border. 12/

The North Korean troops can have a local impact, especially if concentrated in a certain area. If the troops are engaged in fighting, North Korea needs to send replacements for the eventual losses, if it wants to sustain the active presence in the war. 13/

If Russia was actually in a weak position, it shouldn’t be able to pressure and advance continuously in many directions. It still has formidable strength, which should not be underestimated. The North Koreans are an addition to these already existing capabilities. 14/14