Thread by @ejustin46

WHAT COULD HAPPEN with COVID-19?
(opinion)

It is both rare and commendable that someone like Arijit @arijitchakrav invests time in discussing the future risks associated with COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2. In his recent thread, he presents two fascinating scenarios.

2) However, we believe that there could be a third scenario.
To explain this hypothesis we would like to take the example of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), which affect over 520 million people worldwide and are the leading cause of death, responsible for 32% of all fatalities..

3) ...and over 18 million deaths annually.
In the US, medical costs related to CVD surpass $200 billion each year, covering hospital stays, outpatient services, medications.
Furthermore, the economic burden from lost productivity is estimated at around $100 billion annually.

4) We are well aware of the straightforward measures to prevent CVD: maintaining a balanced diet, exercising regularly, managing a healthy weight, quitting smoking, limiting alcohol consumption, controlling stress, getting regular screenings, and ensuring sufficient sleep.

5) However, U.S. spending to promote these preventive measures is estimated to be between $1 billion and $2 billion annually, which constitutes only about 0.5% of the overall costs associated with cardiovascular diseases.

6) The reality is that as long as hospitals aren’t overwhelmed with patients and individuals aren’t dying in the corridors, there is a prevailing INDIFFERENCE towards public health.
Prior to the pandemic, global health spending revealed stagnant expenditures ...

7) ...across various countries and regions, even as an aging population drives an increasing demand for healthcare services.

The third scenario regarding COVID-19 is the INACTION and INDIFFERENCE we currently observe.

8) This mindset merges a “let it rip” approach to the pandemic with a similar attitude towards the escalating health costs linked to rising infection rates.

Our perspectives sometimes diverge from Arijit’s on this matter, despite our respect for his analysis.

9) A disease can be assessed in terms of "degrees of susceptibility."
Research has categorized individuals affected by long COVID into 3 groups: those who are severely impacted, particularly as reinfections rise; those who experience "mild" symptoms ...

https://x.com/ejustin46/status/1848620033326424270?t=GhS1STz9jCT-7mQ0SdqZRg&s=19

10) ... and often recover over time; and those who are either unaffected or only slightly affected due to protective measures. While these groups evolve over time, as long as the costs incurred by the most affected remain manageable, we are likely to continue down this path.

11) Unless there is a significant shift in viral evolution, we are heading toward this third scenario of INACTION and INDIFFERENCE. This observation is not rooted in pessimism or defeatism;

12) rather, it reflects an objective assessment of how the world has historically responded to the increasing spread of viruses and the risks they pose to humanity.

Thanks for reading 🙏
FYI @DavidJoffe64 @jlerollblues @outbreakupdates