Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Oct 25 12 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Zelensky's "Make Russia Small Again" T-shirt shows the Principality of Moscow’s tiny 1462 borders. Russia’s control over modern Ukraine and its EU neighbors began only with the Soviet expansion—a blueprint Putin now seeks to revive 1/

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In 1462, the Principality of Moscow was a modest regional power in northeastern Europe. This period marks the beginning of the reign of Ivan the Great. Under him, Moscow began to consolidate power and expand its territory, setting the foundation for the future Russian state 2/
At that time, the Principality of Moscow encompassed Moscow itself, Suzdal, an ancient town northeast of Moscow, and Vologda, a town further north. The principality was under the suzerainty of the Golden Horde, the Mongol-Tatar empire 3/
After 1462, Russia's growth proceeded in several phases:

16th Century: Under Ivan the Terrible, Russia conquered the Khanates of Kazan, Astrakhan, and Siberia, pushing its borders eastward 4/
17th Century: Expansion into Siberia continued, reaching the Pacific Ocean. The Time of Troubles briefly interrupted growth but was followed by the establishment of the Romanov Dynasty 5/
18th Century: Peter the Great modernized the state and gained access to the Baltic Sea. Catherine the Great expanded southward and westward, including parts of Poland and the Crimea 6/
19th Century: Further expansion into Central Asia and the Caucasus regions, along with involvement in European affairs 7/
20th Century: The formation of the Soviet Union brought many neighboring countries into a single federal socialist state. After its dissolution in 1991, the Russian Federation retained significant territory, but lost neighboring countries. 8/
Under Putin, Russian government has squashed domestic dissent, eradicating any democratic and political opposition, brought into submission regions with independence aspirations, established control over media and elections. Russia has also increased GDP per cap more than 10X 9/
The source of Russian strengths is its natural resources: oil and gas. Russia economy is very vulnerable to pricing fluctuations. The domestic security, now together with military costs for operations in Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere, comprise 40% of the government budget 10/
In the recent decade, Russia has expanded its military operations outside of Russia, annexing Crimea, invading Georgia, supporting Syrian regime and establishing a base there, and finally, fully invading Ukraine 11/
Now, Russia is an overstretched empire with economic vulnerabilities. A downward shock to global oil prices will plunge Russia into a deep economic and political crisis. So, Russia is desperate to strengthen its economy and establish political ties with China & BRICS countries X

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More from @Mylovanov

Oct 26
Good news! Today, Georgia held a critical election determining whether its future aligns with Russia or Europe.

Despite pro-Russian supporters violently attacking observers—a very Russian tactic—polls show over 50% for the pro-Western opposition 1/

Edison Research exit poll shows opposition parties collectively with 51.9%, while the ruling “Georgian Dream” party has 40.9% 2/
Yet, a center close to the “Georgian Dream” party released an exit poll with a radically opposite forecast.

This suggest that the government might try to falsify elections in its favor, against pro-Western opposition 3/
Read 4 tweets
Oct 25
BBC asks Putin if he believes Russia is safer now after he invaded Ukraine.

Putin acknowledges attacks on Russian territory, struggles to justify that it has become safer. He rumbles about Russian global standing, NATO bases in Ukraine, and 2014 1/

BBC: But how does all this [BRICS calls for justice and peace] correlate with your actions, over the last two and a half years, with the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops?

That's where justice, stability and security, including Russia's security 1/
Because before the SWO, there were no drone attacks on Russian territory, no shelling of Russian cities, no foreign troops occupying Russian territory.

There was none of that 2/
Read 13 tweets
Oct 23
Zelensky: We gave away [nuclear weapons] and got nothing in return, except for full-scale war and many victims. We aren't in Nato and we won't be in Nato during the war; that's why I need this deterrence package

He is right. NATO is not realistic. So, what’s the way forward? 1/ Image
The reality is that without admitting to NATO, there will be no sustained peace. But NATO won’t admit Ukraine during the hot phase of the war and, also, until Ukraine implements required reforms. So, how to achieve both? 2/
First, the hot phase of the war must end. We can call it cease fire, negotiations, or nothing at all, but the intensity of the conflict must decrease 3/
Read 7 tweets
Oct 21
Russia appears to win in Moldova. The referendum on EU membership reveals critically low support. With 98% of ballots counted, only 50.08% favor the EU membership, while 49% oppose. Evidence of Russian funding, vote-buying, and interference to undermine the EU and polarize 1/ Image
President Maia Sandu won the first round of presidential elections with approximately 42% support, facing a likely runoff against pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo, who secured about 26-28% of the vote 2/
Sandu denounced what she called "unprecedented" Russian interference in the elections, claiming security officials found evidence that some 300,000 votes (close to 10%) had been bought in "a fraud of unprecedented scale." 3/
Read 11 tweets
Oct 20
A recently intercepted North Korean missile in Ukraine was found to contain newly produced electronics from several Western firms, including

Analog Devices (US)
XP Power (UK)
NXP (Netherlands)
Avago (US)

These companies are at best negligent and at worst complicit 1/
NAKO: Most of microelectronic components were manufactured in the USA, while the others can be traced to Switzerland, the Netherlands and the U.K. The full list of companies:

Diodes Inc., Bourns, Broadcom, Analog Devices, Avago, NXP, Traco Power, STMicroelectronics, XP Power 2/ Image
The KN-23/24 missile with an alleged serial number 312518759 was shot down on September 7, 2024, near Myrne and Bilyky villages, Poltava Oblast, Ukraine, by the Armed Forces of Ukraine 3/ Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 20
A Ukrainian soldier about sleeping Ina trench:

Curled up, hugging myself below the knees, I fell asleep in the trench I had just dug with my own hands, though it wasn’t finished yet 1/ Image
My body said “enough.” Two hours of sleep in the past 24 hours and the physical exhaustion from constant, intense effort forced me to take an hour for recovery 2/
The earthen walls shielded me from the autumn wind. The right combination of clothing, a thick mat, and the fetal position allowed me to disconnect for a while 3/
Read 12 tweets

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