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Michael Pruser Profile picture
@MichaelPruser
Oct 26, 2024 • 2 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Clark County voter frequency update for today has been completed.

One thing to point out about today's update is how poorly Independents are turning out. Very few new AVR voters are showing up (which is not a surprise), which likely depresses turnout compared to 2020. Image
AVR stands for automatic voter registration and shows that independent registrations have surged this year; they only look strong on paper.

In practice, due to inflated registration totals, independents may turn out at historically low rates this cycle.

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More from @MichaelPruser

Michael Pruser Profile picture
Mar 31
Short thread on expectations for the FL-06 Congressional Special Election tomorrow.

Other than ~ the 1,500 more mail ballots expected to be collected, the absentee and early vote portion of the FL-06 election is now over. Republicans have banked 9,296 more raw votes than Democrats, creating an R+9.21% electorate (so far).

🔴Republicans - 47,403
🔵Democrats - 38,107
🟡Others - 15,425

Not all +9.21% electorates are the same, however. When the 102,000 early votes cast are reported around 7:10 p.m. EST Tuesday, Randy Fine is more likely than not to be trailing.

How much he is trailing (if Fine is ahead, mark him down for a W) will determine whether Democrat Josh Weil can hold on after the election day vote is reported.Image
When you review the special or off-year general elections across the state over the last few years, the results have always shifted leftward compared to the electorate.

Booth/Keen in ’24, Davis/Deegan in ’23, Redondo/Farias in ’23, and others consistently showcase significant leftward shifts in mail, modest ones in the early in-person vote, and minimal ones on election day.

For example, if we look at the most recent state house special (Booth/Keen), the result was to the left of the turnout in all vote types, and the final result finished 6.9% to the left of the electorate.

Early voters in FL, especially mail-in early voters, tend to lean significantly left, including NPA voters. It's common to see independents vote D+40 in the mail during off-years, giving underdog Democratic candidates a massive head start.

Some version of this leftward shift will happen tomorrow, and there are solid reasons to believe it will be larger than D+7.Image
The first is that Randy Fine would score somewhere between D and F on the candidate quality meter.

He is not favorably viewed by his party, does not live in the district, has no community ties, did not raise funds for this election, and ran an extremely “light” campaign overall. Trump's endorsement has been his strategy from start to finish, and a persuasion penalty will likely be paid, and a heavy one from independents.

The second is the appearance of two additional non-Democratic candidates on the ballot. Libertarian Andrew Parrott and the Constitution Party endorsed Randall Terry present Republicans with a “protest vote” opportunity that is likely to siphon off something.

It’s also important to note that Josh Weil is not a quality candidate himself. Weil, who also does not live in the district and has no community ties, raised much more than Fine did (10:1) but spent little on promotion (10% of funds raised).

He was suspended from his teaching position 10 years ago for physical abuse of a student, and recently had a campaign staffer arrested for burglary.

Voters have not been given good choices.
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