Short thread on expectations for the FL-06 Congressional Special Election tomorrow.

Other than ~ the 1,500 more mail ballots expected to be collected, the absentee and early vote portion of the FL-06 election is now over. Republicans have banked 9,296 more raw votes than Democrats, creating an R+9.21% electorate (so far).

🔴Republicans - 47,403
🔵Democrats - 38,107
🟡Others - 15,425

Not all +9.21% electorates are the same, however. When the 102,000 early votes cast are reported around 7:10 p.m. EST Tuesday, Randy Fine is more likely than not to be trailing.

How much he is trailing (if Fine is ahead, mark him down for a W) will determine whether Democrat Josh Weil can hold on after the election day vote is reported. When you review the special or off-year general elections across the state over the last few years, the results have always shifted leftward compared to the electorate.

Booth/Keen in ’24, Davis/Deegan in ’23, Redondo/Farias in ’23, and others consistently showcase significant leftward shifts in mail, modest ones in the early in-person vote, and minimal ones on election day.

For example, if we look at the most recent state house special (Booth/Keen), the result was to the left of the turnout in all vote types, and the final result finished 6.9% to the left of the electorate.

Early voters in FL, especially mail-in early voters, tend to lean significantly left, including NPA voters. It's common to see independents vote D+40 in the mail during off-years, giving underdog Democratic candidates a massive head start.

Some version of this leftward shift will happen tomorrow, and there are solid reasons to believe it will be larger than D+7.