Thread by @Prune602

‼️ Uzbekistan: Something to watch?

Uzbekistan has parliamentary elections on SUNDAY 27 October 2024.

And there’s been some news lately I want to bring up, *just in case*

interfax.ru/world/988732

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov also just announced that he was postponing his trip to Uzbekistan that was supposed to occur October 28-29, the days after the elections.

interfax.ru/russia/988787

Uzbekistan also announced that it would not join the Eurasian Economic Union.

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1849435006961140153

When I made this thread, in part 2 I began a long explanation about the Eurasian Economic Union & Russia’s deteriorating relationship with many of its member states.

(I think it’s very informative if you’re not familiar)

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1847799016148652372

In it I pointed out that there are 3 countries that provide the majority of Russia’s migrant labor

- Kyrgyzstan
- Tajikistan
- Uzbekistan

But only Kyrgyzstan is part of the Eurasian Economic Union

But in that thread, I discussed many of the things that are happening to all migrants from those 3 countries. It’s bad. Therefore I won’t go into too much detail about in this thread.

Armenia & Kazakhstan, both members of the Eurasian Economic Union recently declared they wouldn’t join BRICS

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1848399529252393107

Still haven’t made a gif for Armenia, but this one for Kazakhstan is on point.

🇷🇺: DO WHAT I WANT!
🇰🇿: no
🇦🇲: no

So… is Uzbekistan joining in?

There also was a mysterious death in Uzbekistan recently.

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1848735093952577601

Which reminds me of another thing to point out. After the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of “partial mobilization” (draft) many Russians fled, particularly young guys in tech (IT).

And one of the countries they fled to was Uzbekistan.

Russia said people working in IT would get waivers, but that didn’t always work out. Russia, per usual, started a campaign of villainizing those who left.

While this was going it appeared that Uzbekistan had opened its arms and welcomed the skilled Russians.

This essentially meant that Uzbekistan could have their own IT industry over night because of Russia’s foolishness.

I haven’t investigated to see how many of the Russians have STAYED in Uzbekistan since then. But, IT professionals have continued to leave.

Some of the new reasons include “losing competencies” as Russia is cut off from the rest of the world standards by:

- getting sanctioned
- Russia banning software
- and/or Russia not investing in staying up to date (BUDGET CUTS!)

It’s sort of a “leave while you can” thing

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1776134550478897448

Not only that, but Russia is losing some of the few “carrots” they have.

First they changed the IT preferential mortgage requirements to say you had to stay in your approved job for the LIFE of the mortgage AND it couldn’t be in Moscow & St. Petersburg.

Then this 👇

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1841270037945917858

There have, per usual been threats to Uzbekistan. But also both the Russian Prime Minister (more recently) and Putin (in May) have made visits to Uzbekistan.

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1839645276354605322

I’m sure all former Soviet Union countries are paying attention to what is being said.

This is Pyotr Tolstoy, deputy Chairman of the State Duma on Russian State TV. It’s not just some random guy on independent media.

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1685472428682567681

By the way, last year Putin mixed up Dagestan (a region in Russia) with Uzbekistan…while talking to the president of UZBEKISTAN.

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1710296058570355051

Back in January, Pyotr Tolstoy showed how he felt about migrants.

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1747751010850758765

And who did Tolstoy go after? The president of the inter regional Uzbek community “Vatandosh”

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1747753444096561661

In February, Uzbekistan started tightening banking restrictions.

When you begin to view Russia’s relationship many of these countries as abusive & transactional, things begin to make more sense.

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1762597633619529752

Many of them both

✅ Do not want to get punished if it can be avoided (remember, abusive relationship)

✅ Have people who are more than willing to charge higher & higher prices to evade sanctions (if they can get away with it)

They aren’t going things because they LIKE Russia

And there is a difference between:

- Accepting skilled Russians who are fleeing Russia and are happy to settle in Uzbekistan and improve things

- Liking the RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT

So Uzbekistan also blocked the Russian MIR card to comply with sanctions.

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1795171906993213678

Putin made a trip to Uzbekistan, this was after he made his trip to China.

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1791521316735963365

He then asked Uzbekistan to buy more gas

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1795577356821897372

The best offer he made for migrants was “decent working conditions”

Remember, these people are being pressed into the Russian military

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1795176350124310562

And then the head of external labor of Uzbekistan said that the outflow of migrants may decrease.

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1801019327883137415

Remember the announcement about the common alphabet?

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1834738215015645690

Uzbekistan got rid of Cyrillic in 2023

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1834738259655540960

Uzbekistan is one the Turkic Sovereign States.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organizat…

Russia has a major labor shortage, and as the situation in Russia deteriorates it brings even less incentive for migrants to travel there.

If the economic situation in Uzbekistan IMPROVES, then the tides turn even more.

Here is an example of the truth behind the lies.

Russia will try to blame the “the West” for these countries trying to break free.

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1637517784383930371

When also demonstrating they are willing to use force to make countries remain friendly.

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1637517792453750784

It’s like the abusive spouse that can’t believe that that their significant other has left them when they found the opportunity, and that it MUST have been someone else fault.

Many of the things happening to Russia are an ultimately result of their own actions.

If “the West” happens to realize opportunities exist here where BOTH the abused country and “the West” benefit.

🍿 Why not?

But as you can see, quietly in the background, Russia’s “sphere of influence” is weakening significantly.

We just don’t know if Russia is going to try to do anything in Uzbekistan with respect relationship to the elections.

It’s something to watch

~ The End ~