Crémieux Profile picture
Oct 27, 2024 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
What does labor-saving technology do to workers? Does it make them poor? Does it take away their jobs?

Let's review!

First: Most papers do support the idea that technology takes people's jobs.Image
This needs qualified.

Most types of job-relevant technology do take jobs, but innovation is largely excepted, because, well, introducing a new innovation tends to, instead, give employers money they can use to hire people. Image
But if technology takes jobs, why do we still have jobs?

Simple: Because through stimulating production and demand, it also reinstates laborers!

This is supported by the overwhelming majority of studies:Image
This reinstatement effect is largely consistent across types of technology, with innovations still looking a bit odd.

That is the weirdest category of technology besides "other", so roll with it. Image
Now the operative question is, if workers lose their jobs and end up reinstated in other jobs, what happens to their incomes?

Well, technology introduction tends to boost incomes!Image
Across types of tech, this result is pretty consistent: studies agree, technology makes us richer! Image
But, you might ask, whose income is boosted? Because if reinstatement affects far smaller numbers of workers than replacement, some people might still be getting shafted.

Well, the net employment effects of technology are highly ambiguous:Image
If we look across types of technology the picture I mentioned above for innovation-style technology shows up again: many studies suggest it's good for employment. Image
The reason impacts on net employment are so ambiguous is because they really have to be qualified.

For example, in general, when robots cause manufacturing employment to fall, there's a compensatory effect on service-sector employment that's at least as large in magnitude: Image
What makes that impact so interesting is another way it's qualified: It's smaller in industries more at-risk of offshoring.

In other words, industrial robots save American jobs from going overseas.Image
Industrial robots also contribute directly to reshoring. In other words, when Americans buy robots to do their manufacturing, Mexicans lose their jobs.

The welfare impact for domestic workers is positive. Not so for Mexicans, but that's just how things go. Image
Overall, labor-saving technology is clearly good, and the longer we delay adopting it, the poorer we will be relative to the world in which we picked it up immediately.

Want to know more? Check out my latest article: cremieux.xyz/p/workers-for-…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Jun 28
You must pick one:

Double the productivity of the bottom 20% or double the productivity of the top 1%:
Double the productivity of the bottom 40% or double the productivity of the top 1%:
Double the productivity of the bottom 60% or double the productivity of the top 1%:
Read 7 tweets
Jun 27
Phenotyping is the vast, minimally-explored frontier in genome-wide association studies.

Important thread🧵

Briefly, phenotyping is how you measure people's traits. Measure poorly, get bad results; measure well, get good results.

Example? Janky knees. Image
The janky knee example refers to osteoarthritis, the most common form of arthritis, which occurs when the cartilage between bones is worn down, so bones start rubbing against each other.

This ends up being very painful. Image
Everyone with this condition isn't necessarily diagnosed with it.

This is especially true for men, who tend to just ignore this (and many other conditions) more often than women do.

This is, in a word, annoying, because it means that if you study it, sampling is likely biased. Image
Read 35 tweets
Jun 25
ADHD is a condition that's suffered from diagnostic drift: it's been defined more leniently over time, so more people are getting diagnosed.

One way to see this is to look at the benefits of taking ADHD medication. As prescription rates increased, the benefits have declined. Image
Another way to understand diagnostic drift is to look at the factors that promote it.

For example, school accountability laws lead to more diagnoses and, as a result, more psychoactive drug prescriptions.

Schools are pressured by law into making this happen. Image
An even more direct way to understand ADHD's diagnostic drift is to look at what types of diagnoses happen over time.

The increase has been more about non-severe ADHD than clinical ADHD. In other words, people with less and lesser symptoms are getting diagnosed. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 24
I have a story to break.

Columbia is still practicing racially discriminatory admissions in defiance of the Supreme Court's ruling in SFFA v. Harvard.

Newly-leaked data shows they still prefer less-qualified Blacks and Hispanics over more-qualified Asians🧵Image
Columbia has made a big show of "complying" with SFFA v. Harvard by noting that their 2024 batch of admits involved slightly less discrimination:

Fewer Black and Hispanic students, more Asian students.

That's what should happen, because Asian students tend to perform better.Image
But, with this leaked admissions data, we can see that race still predicts admissions.

With fair admissions, race should not have a significant effect, and it should not be directionally consistent.

And yet, in this data, it's clear Columbia still discriminates against Asians. Image
Read 14 tweets
Jun 21
Today's big biotech win is that we might be on the verge of a cure for type-1 diabetes🧵

Twelve diabetics were injected with stem cell-derived pancreatic islets.

They started producing insulin again.

One year in, 10/12 participants no longer needed to inject insulin. Image
In that chart, you can see the response to a meal.

At baseline, blood sugar levels go dangerously high (right) because participants don't produce insulin at all (proxied by C-peptide levels, left).

But notice the blood sugar and C-peptide levels after treatment: Image
With treatment, the patients kept getting better and better.

Their pancreatic function improved over time, and they became more and more able to handle food, and to do so without the need to inject insulin. Image
Read 10 tweets
Jun 20
About a year after this analysis came out, the Wall Street Journal published another one, with much clearer evidence🧵

It compares three adjacent counties located in three different states—Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. Image
These states are very differently partisan.

Ohio is Republican-controlled, New York is a Democratic bastion, and Pennsylvania? They split the difference. Image
These states vary as expected given their partisanship along many dimensions.

For example, Ohio has the lowest cigarette taxes in the group. Consistently, it also has the highest smoking-related death rate of the three. Image
Read 8 tweets

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