What does labor-saving technology do to workers? Does it make them poor? Does it take away their jobs?
Let's review!
First: Most papers do support the idea that technology takes people's jobs.
This needs qualified.
Most types of job-relevant technology do take jobs, but innovation is largely excepted, because, well, introducing a new innovation tends to, instead, give employers money they can use to hire people.
But if technology takes jobs, why do we still have jobs?
Simple: Because through stimulating production and demand, it also reinstates laborers!
This is supported by the overwhelming majority of studies:
This reinstatement effect is largely consistent across types of technology, with innovations still looking a bit odd.
That is the weirdest category of technology besides "other", so roll with it.
Now the operative question is, if workers lose their jobs and end up reinstated in other jobs, what happens to their incomes?
Well, technology introduction tends to boost incomes!
Across types of tech, this result is pretty consistent: studies agree, technology makes us richer!
But, you might ask, whose income is boosted? Because if reinstatement affects far smaller numbers of workers than replacement, some people might still be getting shafted.
Well, the net employment effects of technology are highly ambiguous:
If we look across types of technology the picture I mentioned above for innovation-style technology shows up again: many studies suggest it's good for employment.
The reason impacts on net employment are so ambiguous is because they really have to be qualified.
For example, in general, when robots cause manufacturing employment to fall, there's a compensatory effect on service-sector employment that's at least as large in magnitude:
What makes that impact so interesting is another way it's qualified: It's smaller in industries more at-risk of offshoring.
In other words, industrial robots save American jobs from going overseas.
Industrial robots also contribute directly to reshoring. In other words, when Americans buy robots to do their manufacturing, Mexicans lose their jobs.
The welfare impact for domestic workers is positive. Not so for Mexicans, but that's just how things go.
Overall, labor-saving technology is clearly good, and the longer we delay adopting it, the poorer we will be relative to the world in which we picked it up immediately.
"Without Mohammed, Charlemagne would have been inconceivable."
This quote describes Pirenne's thesis that Antiquity—the period when economic activity concentrated in the Mediterranean—ended because the rise of Islam destroyed the flow of trade across it.
The decline in trade that resulted from differences in faith had profound consequences for the economic geography of Europe.
Byzantine economic activity depended on trade, and it collapsed, whereas the Frankish economy, which was never trade-dependent, transformed.
The Byzantines' minting stalled and the Arabs' and Franks' increased (perhaps partly because they were cut off from one another!), providing each of their states with divergent trends in seignorage revenues and a widening gulf in the ability to fund the government.
Robustness tests are supposed to show a study's results hold up no matter how you reasonably change the specification
But we live in a world with p-hacking, and people p-hack robustness tests
Compared to unshown robustness tests (blue), what we get is suspiciously significant!
This is the distribution of z-values for different tests in economics papers, coupled with the robustness tests their authors presented, and other, plausible robustness tests they didn't.
Clearly people p-hack, and they p-hack tests that are supposed to make us think they didn't
It's sad this is the case. Were it not, it might be useful to get a surprising, marginally-significant result, and then show that it holds up across different permutations of the results
But because the robustness tests shown are selective, their potential utility is unrealized
Let's talk about the glass delusion, the Middle Ages' bout with a mass psychogenic illness marked by people believing they were made of glass.
Glass was a valuable commodity in Europe. It was primarily owned by the noble and well-to-do, and it had a notable purpose in alchemy.
Its perception as the technology of the time was as one that's both fragile and valuable, like the nobility.
Glass was the relatively novel technology people knew, and they knew things could be transmuted into glass. Delusional people also thought transmutation could affect them.
The massive increase in homicides in the last week of May of 2020 started in the days after George Floyd's death.
The Floyd Effect principally refers to the impact of George Floyd's death on homicide numbers in the U.S. through diverse mechanisms, such as reduced cooperation with police, reduced police activity, presence, and willingness to confront potential criminals, and maybe more.
The effect primarily occurred due to an increase in firearm violence that was largely isolated to African Americans. The effect is timed to the
College students make or are forced to make suboptimal choices about the times their classes take place🧵
For students who register for 8AM classes, about a third wake up after class starts, and almost 40% wake up too late to get to class on time.
People's internal rhythms aren't things they just choose, they're somewhat out of their control because they're synced up with day-night cycles.
Consider this, showing the amount of time 8AM class-takers sleep on school days vs weekends (gray), measured through logins at school.
If you compare those 8AM class-takers to 9AM students, you see that the ones who registered for 9AM classes sleep longer, but both sleep similar lengths on weekends.