tern Profile picture
Oct 27, 2024 16 tweets 4 min read Read on X
If you think the pandemic's over, you're badly wrong.

This is the staff absence rate for the seventh largest employer in the world.

See the consistency of the absence rate leading up to the pandemic...

Look at how it changed in 2020.

And see where it's going *now*.Image
When you break it down by month. You get this. Image
Pre-covid, this variation is your classic northern hemisphere seasonal infection cycle.
It's annual.
Peak in January most of the time, sometimes a month earlier, sometimes a month later.
Trough in May most of the time, sometimes a month earlier or later. Image
Since then... chaos.
Peaks of sickness absence in April, January, March, July, December, and when's the next one going to peak?
And troughs in March, August, May, September...
You know what these all correlate with?

WAVES AND TROUGHS OF FECKING COVID INFECTIONS. Image
And meanwhile, the troughs never drop as low as before.
In fact, the BEST absence rate of the last two years is worse than the worst of three of the 8 years leading up to the pandemic... Image
But the most recent trough?
It's worse than SEVEN of the EIGHT *peaks* pre-pandemic. Image
You want to fix the NHS, @wesstreeting?
Fix Covid, you mewling dewflap.
Oh yeah.
And these graphs don't include the staff who left employment because they were disabled by Covid.
And it doesn't include the staff who were killed by Covid.
note: all of this data is from the NHS.

Just do a search for 'nhs sickness absence report'.

It's all there.
Oh yeah.
And there are people stupid enough to call this bit 'the pandemic'.
😂 Image
oh yeah too:
and the best point of the 12 month rolling sick rate in the last three years is TWENTY PERCENT WORSE THAN THE TREND BEFORE THE PANDEMIC. Image
Why?

BECAUSE WE ARE *DURING COVID NOW*.
Oh yeah three... ambulance staff...

Ambulance staff did peak at SIXTY PERCENT worse sickness absence rates in summer (SUMMER) 2022.

They're currently at TWENTY FIVE PERCENT WORSE than the pre-pandemic trend. Image
Again, that doesn't include the paramedics disabled by catching Covid.
Or the ones it killed.

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More from @1goodtern

Feb 4
Oh hang on a second.

A penny drops...
I've been thinking recently that wide spread of traditional winter viruses like flu, rsv, etc may (while also harming and killing people) trigger the immune system in ways that help fight other infections... and help prevent covid waves getting a foothold.
I've written a couple of threads about it. I'll pop them at the end of this thread.
Read 49 tweets
Feb 3
I don't think enough people appreciate that Covid infection can make you more vulnerable to developing PTSD.

A quick important thread...
If you hang out in groups with people with Long Covid, it won't be long before you hear people talking about PTSD, but in the groups there doesn't seem to be the realisation that it may have been Covid infection itself that made PTSD more likely.
A lot of people think that PTSD is just about the events someone has experienced.
But that is an absolutely classic error, common in much thinking about mental health.
Read 15 tweets
Feb 1
"When your patient coughing up blood, thought to be from clots in their lungs, tests positive for tuberculosis... and you realized you weren't wearing a mask in the room"

So many doctors like learning the hard way, it seems.
And you don't need a *surgical mask* if you're around someone with TB.

YOU NEED A RESPIRATOR
Read 5 tweets
Jan 31
This is a strange pattern.
I think it needs looking at very very closely.

Look at when Covid has dominated here in the last year. Image
I don't have all the data handy for the previous year 2023 in the same format, but it looks like this for Flu, Covid and RSV: Image
What do you see there? Image
Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 31
Feel free to file this one under "tern knows absolutely nothing about anything so shouldn't even open his mouth", but occasionally I wonder about the way that Covid sometimes seems to behave more like some bacteria than like other airborne viruses.
A few intracellular bacteria like TB and Chlamydia Pneumoniae are great at delaying or suppressing the early immune response to establish infection.
Covid does the same:
Read 31 tweets
Jan 30
Back in 2020 I was warning about what Covid infections would do to some developing fetuses and babies and infants.
I was screaming it.

Here's the next stage of effects:
"teachers reported children with poor basic motor skills and underdeveloped muscles"... Image
"A deputy head in the north-west reported an increase in “delayed walkers” with “clumsy movements, dropping things""
"I’ve got two children [in my class] who physically cannot sit on the carpet"
Read 26 tweets

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