SITREP: South Donetsk
After breaching Selydove and Hirnyk early in the week, the Russians started offensive operations in the Vuhledar direction on Friday..
Due to these developments the situation on the South Donetsk frontline has turned very difficult.
Dark red = 20. OCT
1/
After breaching Selydove and Hirnyk early in the week, the Russians started offensive operations in the Vuhledar direction on Friday..
Due to these developments the situation on the South Donetsk frontline has turned very difficult.
Dark red = 20. OCT
1/
Vuhledar front:
On Friday the Russians began large scale attacks towards Shakhtarske and Bohoiavienka.
They gained ground quickly, advancing almost 7km towards Shakhtarske.
These attacks were supported by large scale artillery and air bombardments.
2/
On Friday the Russians began large scale attacks towards Shakhtarske and Bohoiavienka.
They gained ground quickly, advancing almost 7km towards Shakhtarske.
These attacks were supported by large scale artillery and air bombardments.
2/
In Bohoiavienka the Russians had managed to advance within 3km of the town before Friday.
Although the initial attacks may have been repelled, video footage from Bohovienka and reports from Shakhtarske indicate that Russians have a strong foothold in both villages.
3/
Although the initial attacks may have been repelled, video footage from Bohovienka and reports from Shakhtarske indicate that Russians have a strong foothold in both villages.
3/
In addition to the success around Shakhtarske and Bohoiavienka, some Ukrainian milbloggers claim that Russia has entered Novoukrainka.
Either Ukraine is doing a coordinated withdrawal on the width of 30km or the initial defensive line here has essentially collapsed.
4/
Either Ukraine is doing a coordinated withdrawal on the width of 30km or the initial defensive line here has essentially collapsed.
4/
It seems that this southern flank in Donetsk was held mostly by TDF units, with most regular brigades moved elsewhere.
The Russians continue to find parts of the frontline that Ukraine has to leave lightly defended, and apply sudden pressure, gaining success.
5/
The Russians continue to find parts of the frontline that Ukraine has to leave lightly defended, and apply sudden pressure, gaining success.
5/
In turn, this leaves the Ukrainians playing whack-a-mole with their dwindling reserves, moving them from one problem area of the front to another.
Due to this, Ukraine once again has at least two clear problem areas on the frontline, with arguably Kupyansk as the third one.
6/
Due to this, Ukraine once again has at least two clear problem areas on the frontline, with arguably Kupyansk as the third one.
6/
It's too soon to talk about a catastrophe though. Behind the villages there is another line of fortifications, and fighting is still ongoing.
However, the Russians are bringing up reserves, if the Russians breach further, larger problems will arise.
More on that soon.
7/
However, the Russians are bringing up reserves, if the Russians breach further, larger problems will arise.
More on that soon.
7/
Selydove:
Talking of another problem area. The Russians have captured most of the city of Selydove, and reports put most of Hirnyk in Russian hands as well.
Now the fighting is moving on to Kurakhivka, at the very bottom of a narrow salient.
8/
Talking of another problem area. The Russians have captured most of the city of Selydove, and reports put most of Hirnyk in Russian hands as well.
Now the fighting is moving on to Kurakhivka, at the very bottom of a narrow salient.
8/
The Russians are also continuing their push westwards towards Novodmytrivka. Reports talk of movement towards Kreminna Balka and Novoselydivkaa as well.
More worryingly Ukrainians have said that Russian have positions SW of Hirnyk and are pushing southwards.
9/
More worryingly Ukrainians have said that Russian have positions SW of Hirnyk and are pushing southwards.
9/
In Selydove itself the Russians have captured Vyshnoe definitely blocking the road there. Most of southern Selydivka is likely in Russian hands.
Any remaining Ukrainian positions are likely in NW Selydivka and will soon need to withdraw.
10/
Any remaining Ukrainian positions are likely in NW Selydivka and will soon need to withdraw.
10/
https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1850572752035500233?t=_2IZV3UPGQuC3QG-LHs3zQ&s=19
Assessing the future:
We are not at a point where the Ukrainian defence has collapsed at an operational scale. As of writing this, the Russians do not have an operational breakthrough.
However, risks remain for large areas of Southern Donetsk in the long term.
11/
We are not at a point where the Ukrainian defence has collapsed at an operational scale. As of writing this, the Russians do not have an operational breakthrough.
However, risks remain for large areas of Southern Donetsk in the long term.
11/
The Russians will likely try to build up on their success around Selydove and Vuhledar.
From Selydove they will attempt to move on Ukrainian defensive lines from the rear, and eventually cut the highway N15 and with it the main supply route to Kurakhove.
12/
From Selydove they will attempt to move on Ukrainian defensive lines from the rear, and eventually cut the highway N15 and with it the main supply route to Kurakhove.
12/
From Vuhledar, the Russians will likely attempt to push forwards through the Ukrainian defensive lines, and attempt to approach N15 from the south, creating a salient around Kurakhove.
They will also likely attempt to turn westwards towards the rear of Velyka Novosilka.
13/
They will also likely attempt to turn westwards towards the rear of Velyka Novosilka.
13/
Russians are likely to keep up pressure on the eastern flank as well. These will most likely be fixing attacks to keep Ukrainians at the edge of the emerging salient, but it's likely that Russians will continue their slow advance here as well.
14/
14/
https://x.com/distant_earth83/status/1850504266739224839
So far the Russians haven't been able to turn tactical success into operational one, so any larger developments here will likely emerge over the late autumn and winter.
As Ukrainians shift reinforcements into this sector, the Russians will ramp up pressure somewhere else.
15/
As Ukrainians shift reinforcements into this sector, the Russians will ramp up pressure somewhere else.
15/
However, I keep thinking about the "gradually, then suddenly" of attritional fighting.
The Ukrainian recruitment has slowed down from its initial success, and it's attempting to put out fires with attritioned units.
16/
The Ukrainian recruitment has slowed down from its initial success, and it's attempting to put out fires with attritioned units.
16/
https://x.com/SashoTodorov1/status/1824794149494640651?lang=fi
We are constantly seeing lighter and badly led units, especially TDF, taking the brunt of Russian attacks and breaking under pressure.
In Shakhtarske the Russians jumped 7km forwards.
How many Shakhtarskes need to happen before it turns into operational success?
17/
In Shakhtarske the Russians jumped 7km forwards.
How many Shakhtarskes need to happen before it turns into operational success?
17/
On the other hand the Russians themselves are having troubles with recruitment and their economy as a whole.
There are rarely enough mechanized reserves available to exploit tactical success, but even a small amount of force can advance far if the enemy is depleted enough.
18/
There are rarely enough mechanized reserves available to exploit tactical success, but even a small amount of force can advance far if the enemy is depleted enough.
18/
In any case, the fall of Selydove and Hirnyk, as well as the recent advance on the Vuhledar front mean that the Ukrainian position in southern Donetsk is deteriorating.
Ukraine has yet to find a coherent answer to the shifting Russian pressure throughout the frontline.
19/
Ukraine has yet to find a coherent answer to the shifting Russian pressure throughout the frontline.
19/
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Our constantly updated map can be found at
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