Day #4
Sometimes, discomfort is very uncomfortable. Anybody can get occasionally tired of it, and then it can change fast, where it's comfort that disturbs you.
- Jim Harrison
I’d never been to New Hanover Co, NC or canvassed for a campaign prior to this week.
Last recap:
Sometimes, discomfort is very uncomfortable. Anybody can get occasionally tired of it, and then it can change fast, where it's comfort that disturbs you.
- Jim Harrison
I’d never been to New Hanover Co, NC or canvassed for a campaign prior to this week.
Last recap:
Why New Hanover County?
Not an arbitrary choice; NH is the 11th largest county in NC, ~quarter million votes, has had close POTUS election results each time since 2008 in a state which has also had close election results each time.
It is arguably the swingiest county in NC.
Not an arbitrary choice; NH is the 11th largest county in NC, ~quarter million votes, has had close POTUS election results each time since 2008 in a state which has also had close election results each time.
It is arguably the swingiest county in NC.
It is also a county with a wild mix of very wealthy beach towns, midsize city life & decidedly more working class towns further inland.
We surveyed a wide spread & I kept a diary with notes b/t visits that advanced to longer conversations & invited home visits. Ds, Rs & Indies.
We surveyed a wide spread & I kept a diary with notes b/t visits that advanced to longer conversations & invited home visits. Ds, Rs & Indies.
I also waited, like when Ryan Gosling grew a beard in The Notebook, to check our canvassing results & my feelings about what I’ve observed vs. the Twitterverse of political science community posts.
A good guess is 5.5mm-5.8mm North Carolinians will vote in this election.
We met & spoke to hundreds of voters, some of whom have already cast their ballots.
General takes:
1. The gender gap of # votes as a % breakout is about the same as 2020. But that’s not the story…
We met & spoke to hundreds of voters, some of whom have already cast their ballots.
General takes:
1. The gender gap of # votes as a % breakout is about the same as 2020. But that’s not the story…
The story is not the macro, the 9% to 11% run rate of more women voting vs. men, it’s the micro breakout.
You don’t see this in polls, but you absolutely do see & feel it on the ground.
At bottom, women are repulsed by Trump to a person, but the attribution to votes is complex.
You don’t see this in polls, but you absolutely do see & feel it on the ground.
At bottom, women are repulsed by Trump to a person, but the attribution to votes is complex.
We spoke to hundreds of women in each political set, Ds, Rs & Indies, & this is what we observed:
D women - Harris all the way. Some unsolicited concerns about the Biden admin’s handling of the war in Israel + some economically aggrieved, but no defectors to 3rd party or R.
D women - Harris all the way. Some unsolicited concerns about the Biden admin’s handling of the war in Israel + some economically aggrieved, but no defectors to 3rd party or R.
Indep women - 85/15 favoring Harris. Quite honestly, this subgroup surprised me. A lot of Indies are preternatural net conservatives or net liberals every election voters who just don’t want to be bothered by parties for donations, so I always asked “what is your usual leaning?”
To my notes it was about 65/35 favoring self identify as net conservative.
So the indicia of have already voted or will vote Harris at 85% was a bit of a surprise.
The common theme was, quite plainly, contempt for Trump & Vance to a person. These are apolitical conclusions.
So the indicia of have already voted or will vote Harris at 85% was a bit of a surprise.
The common theme was, quite plainly, contempt for Trump & Vance to a person. These are apolitical conclusions.
The 15% of Ind women to Trump had a common theme of disdain for Biden + a deep allocation of blame over inflation to the Biden admin, therefore favor Trump by default.
They each recognize a moral failing in supporting Trump, but see it as a least bad choice.
Interestingly,
They each recognize a moral failing in supporting Trump, but see it as a least bad choice.
Interestingly,
One thing in my diary ledger that sticks out - the 15% of Ind women for Trump were all young, mostly young professionals in their 20s.
The R women breakout also surprised me some.
The R women breakout also surprised me some.
Again, the easy thing is to be cynical. GOP women will generally vote R no matter & what we observed does generally exhibit same.
But there is a slice of GOP women, heavily weighted toward older women, who’ve either voted already for Harris, will vote Harris or a leaning toward.
But there is a slice of GOP women, heavily weighted toward older women, who’ve either voted already for Harris, will vote Harris or a leaning toward.
The breakout is about 1 in 8 who fit the “have/will/are considering a vote for Harris” categories.
I’d put it at an even split for this subgroup b/t “have/will vote” & “are considering”
But I do believe the “are considering” translates to will vote Trump, just embarrassed to
I’d put it at an even split for this subgroup b/t “have/will vote” & “are considering”
But I do believe the “are considering” translates to will vote Trump, just embarrassed to
say it out loud. I don’t seek out to patronize them for it - is what it is.
But inside of this analysis is 1 in 16 R women we surveyed, or 6.25%, have or will vote Harris.
That’s material & significant, IMHO.
But inside of this analysis is 1 in 16 R women we surveyed, or 6.25%, have or will vote Harris.
That’s material & significant, IMHO.
The men merit less analysis:
D men, 99%+ Harris.
We only met 1 registered D man who indicated he will vote Trump: a 44 y.o. black male, a successful small business owner. (More on him later)
D men, 99%+ Harris.
We only met 1 registered D man who indicated he will vote Trump: a 44 y.o. black male, a successful small business owner. (More on him later)
Indep men, 60/40 net to Harris.
This group simply leaves me blank, particularly the strata of younger men.
If I wanted to learn all there is to obtain about fantasy football leagues, these guys.
Whatever, book it 60/40 net Harris. Onwards.
This group simply leaves me blank, particularly the strata of younger men.
If I wanted to learn all there is to obtain about fantasy football leagues, these guys.
Whatever, book it 60/40 net Harris. Onwards.
R men, 95%+ Trump.
The few objectors to Trump were each older, wealthier men. 2 grizzled ex-military guys + a few GOP lifers who’ve just had it w/ the Trump circus.
Doesn’t make them any less cast-iron Rs, just won’t play ball this time.
Pin me to a number, I say 2.5% Harris.
The few objectors to Trump were each older, wealthier men. 2 grizzled ex-military guys + a few GOP lifers who’ve just had it w/ the Trump circus.
Doesn’t make them any less cast-iron Rs, just won’t play ball this time.
Pin me to a number, I say 2.5% Harris.
The last punch point is we were surprised by the high volume of GOP voters who disclosed they’d already voted. It was about an equal percentage to Ds who disclosed same.
There won’t be any shock & awe net red or net blue wave of volume on Election Day. It’s happening now.
There won’t be any shock & awe net red or net blue wave of volume on Election Day. It’s happening now.
I’m glad I did this for a great many reasons.
I believe this is a very important election & electing Harris is, or at least SHOULD BE, an urgent high order calling to a conscience for all Americans.
Selfishly, I did what I came looking for: hope.
And confidence + less anxiety.
I believe this is a very important election & electing Harris is, or at least SHOULD BE, an urgent high order calling to a conscience for all Americans.
Selfishly, I did what I came looking for: hope.
And confidence + less anxiety.
I appreciate each of you for following this journey.
I found a little piece of my better self in New Hanover County this week. I’ll never forget this place.
I found a little piece of my better self in New Hanover County this week. I’ll never forget this place.
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