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keyser soze Profile picture
keyser soze
@KeyserSozeBro1
look for the helpers
2 subscribers
Oct 29 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
The Superbad Heresy in New Hanover County - what I learned on the plights of the indigenous American men-of-a certain-age, deep fried chicken livers & the 44 year-old black male Trump voter.

🧵 drop, & sorry seems to be the hardest word. Every schoolboy wants to be cool. In my era every schoolboy needed a well worn pair of Jodhpurs boots to be like Mick, Keith in the Stones or George Harrison.

And as we learned from the Kavanaugh hearings, the idiocy of male teens youth in the 80s was cool like Jeff Spicoli vs.
Oct 28 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
Day #4

Sometimes, discomfort is very uncomfortable. Anybody can get occasionally tired of it, and then it can change fast, where it's comfort that disturbs you.

- Jim Harrison

I’d never been to New Hanover Co, NC or canvassed for a campaign prior to this week.

Last recap: Why New Hanover County?

Not an arbitrary choice; NH is the 11th largest county in NC, ~quarter million votes, has had close POTUS election results each time since 2008 in a state which has also had close election results each time.

It is arguably the swingiest county in NC.
Oct 26 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
Day #3

We canvassed the beaches in New Hanover Co. NC today.

Long day, I’ll keep this tight as I can…a more thorough download tomorrow night after our final day, which will be inside Wilmington proper.

A few notable themes & one very memorable moment for me. The big one is this ⬇️

It’s true.
Oct 25 • 26 tweets • 5 min read
Day #2

Sometimes there are times when it is easy to be cynical & feel discouraged. At times, today was like that…we canvassed majority working class/white collar hardscrabble middle class slices of New Hanover Co, NC.

Notably younger, decidedly more Trump true believers. I don’t live in an imaginary world - I realize & accept there are Trump true believers, regardless of all else.

But I started the day earlier than planned because I had a rough time last night on reflections from Day #1. I wanted to touch base early w/ 1 woman I’d met yesterday.
Sep 9 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
Quick 🧵 on a few tax policy gotchas for laypersons to look for tomorrow night.

First, every politician promises tax cuts for the working class. That’s just political lollipops & pony rides.

Second, every politician has a policy that will (supposedly) make you happier.

Well… No. Just no.

Neither of these 2 candidates are credibly going to offer you, Mr. & Mrs. Average Hard Working American Layperson, a meaningful tax advantage + then deliver on it.

That won’t happen.

Instead focus selfishly on WHAT YOU WANT at the buffet line. Health care, child
Sep 2 • 42 tweets • 11 min read
🧵

Day 5 of 5

THE PROJECT 2025 INITIATIVE MODULE ON THE FEDERAL RESERVE

Finally. The foundational🧵s 1 through 4 established how & why the modern Fed is an apolitical, independent & high functioning unit of the federal govt.

Project 2025 attempts to contest this framing. Image In quick sum, the Project 2025 module critical of the Fed is the very definition of a partisan political policy institute white paper.

It’s authors + 3 named contributors are well known conservative movement economists & academic theorists.
Sep 1 • 30 tweets • 6 min read
🧵

Day 4 of 5

WHEN THINGS GO WRONG & INSTITUTIONS DIE

Prior to today the Federal Reserve was defined as a benevolent overlord & the leadership patterns of modern Fed chairs was established.

Today we cover train wrecks. There are myriad inglorious ways investment banks die. The 1st way is garden variety tomfoolery.

Excessive risks, reckless use of leverage or internal fraud causes institutional cardiac arrests &, at bottom, the Fed chooses a *DO NOT RESUSCITATE* order.
Aug 31 • 26 tweets • 6 min read
🧵

Day 3 of 5

HISTORY OF THE US FINANCIAL SYSTEM

This is the final dry portion before tomorrow (messes & lessons learned from the recent 1/2 century) Monday (an analysis of the Project 2025 initiative). Prior to this we covered INSTITUTIONS including the formation of the Fed & the STRUCTURE + elementary workings of the Fed.

This will be a severely abbreviated walk through history; the point is not to get lost in minutiae but rather to keep moving toward a pragmatic guide.
Aug 30 • 26 tweets • 5 min read
🧵

Day 2 of 5:

STRUCTURES

Inside of all things is a structure.

All institutional structures are never 1 simple thing, they’re always an interrelated mix of compartments, rules, norms & traditions.

Today covers the structures of the Fed & it’s interdependence w/ Wall St IBs As introduced yesterday, it is easiest to think of the Fed as a benevolent overlord of the US financial system.

There are 2 basic structural ways the Fed exacts this function:

1. day-to-day markets operations,
2. periodic formal assessments/actions on short term interest rates.
Aug 29 • 29 tweets • 6 min read
🧵

Day 1 of 5.

INSTITUTIONS

A baseline for the grit of what the Federal Reserve is all about & the stakes involved with the Project 2025 initiative.

This’s the pedantic slice, unavoidably heavy on definitions & lettered acronyms which will be referenced over the next 4 days.
Image
 To hold dear an institution that matters to us beyond any rational boundary is to be human.

I’ll take a defensive tack first on this journey to note on the Baltimore prep lacrosse league. If you live outside a Maryland post code you likely don’t carry much enthusiasm for it. Ok.
Aug 17 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Harris campaign cannot spare the kill shot on the naysayers to their policy.

It is net accretive to federal tax receipts if 1st time homeowners get a $25K tax credit & if families get a 1st year $6K newborn tax credit.

Here’s why:

Corporate RRE owners get a larger tax shield. This is a very simple & incontrovertible point; Blackstone owns literally hundreds of thousands of residential real estate properties which are rented.

Suppose their average acquisition price is is $250K. They get to depreciate the full $250K over the expected life of the asset.
Jun 30 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Seriously, wouldn’t it be nice if one of the nominees for POTUS looked like Brad Pitt, was effusively charming, performed remarkable feats of strength before us & had Rain Man math skills?

And a pony ride for everyone too?

But no.

🇺🇸 economy, A+
Biden’s team, A+

So stop it. If I still had humor about it, I’d go on here about how silly it is that men & women of a certain age see Fabio with a scratch golf game before them at Brother Donny’s Revival Tent Circus.

But it isn’t funny anymore. Trump is a bottom tier vulgarian, a con artist & a sociopath.
Apr 9 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Next on this short 🧵 is a GIFT ARTICLE link to full story.

Read this. What is this communicating?

Hints: not what @maggieNYT access PR masquerading as journalism wants to communicate…It’s also not what @jonathanvswan attempted to frame as fair or balanced reporting either. Image Here’s the gift article link.

If what you read in that two paragraph slice & then again in regards to Boy Plunder’s zero degrees of separation deals w/ governments in Israel, Serbia & in Albania is *that’s a confederate*, you win.

He’s a confederate.

nytimes.com/2024/04/09/us/…
Mar 25 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Just a guess, but $175mm in liquidity above the $90+mm he posted for the Carroll bond is still a lot.

But $175mm well in range where a corrupt bargain can be had.

Not sure if Jeff Yass would pay $175mm for joint custody of Donny’s balls…but it’s 100% certain someone will. Another factor is the appellate court won’t even hear this until Fall 2024, seems reasonable it stretches into 2025.

And how, exactly, would NY AG seize the assets of a POTUS if Armageddon happens & this asshole is elected? He’d use armed Secret Service to guard the fortresses.
Mar 23 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Middle of a detailed 🧵

In essence Trump’s position is subject to a 6 month lockup provision.

But not all provisions are the same; some allow hedging or immunizing risk via options or OTC swaps. This one leaves no daylight. Trump is boxed.

As @WendySiegelman has noted, there could be exotic approaches to “shorting against the box” such as a stealth PIPE issuance of DJT stock next week (as @quantian1 suggests as well)

Here’s the problem: the stock has very little institutional ownership in the float & the borrow to short shares is scarce & expensive.
Feb 29 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Another reminder you’re not voting for one old guy vs. other old guy. Forget ageism for this reason:

Presidents appoint or staff the ~4,500 highest positions in the federal government. A high functioning team is critical.

Today I ring a SCOTUS ⏰ bell. Consider next vacancies… Inauguration Day, Jan 20, 2025 Clarence Thomas will be 76, Samuel Alito will be 74.

Biden wins, 100% they stay put. Trump wins? Better than fair odds they both retire to ensure an enduring SCOTUS conservative supermajority.

THAT’D MEAN A CAREER CRIMINAL WOULD APPOINT 2 MORE.
Aug 26, 2023 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
So I looked this up b/c I’m a glutton for all things offshore dodgy…sometimes I can learn something from it. Not this time.

This ⬇️ is technically incorrect. VR used a shell corp structure popularized in the early 1990s by the first Reg D investors in Ireland via offshore HFs. VR wasn’t an entrepreneur, he’s not a founder of a single entity outside of the shell corp.

He *rolled down* distressed companies into the shell corp via reverse merger structures, then funded same via preferred equity or convertible bond private placements under Regulation D.
Nov 6, 2022 • 9 tweets • 8 min read
Yes, @DrOz is a doctor. The street term for the likes of him is *candyman*

Need a hit? @DrOz has your digital *defund the police* meth hit.

@DrOz isn’t just a garden variety bullshit machine politician. He’s a drug dealer. He deals digital opiates. And this is just precious. This is the digital meth public health crisis exemplar of our times.

@TuckerCarlson works for the Murdoch cartel. @FoxNews is the vessel. Tucker is a supplier, a pusher. His show is a digital meth 💉 house.

@AdamLaxalt is a digital meth street dealer.
Nov 5, 2022 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
Please take the time to read this (very long) gift article.

And don’t be confused about the subject matter:

Murdoch is a drug lord
@FoxNews the enterprise is a supplier
@FoxNews pundits, radio talk show hosts & some Congress electeds are dealers.

The drugs are digital opiates. These mugs are drug dealers.

Some such as @TuckerCarlson control digital meth houses (their 📺 & talk radio audiences are hermetically sealed bubbles).

Some, including members of Congress including @RepMTG & @tedcruz are penny bag 💉 street dealers.

They deal digital opiates.
Nov 5, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
Final Georgia EV update:

Exclamation point on Friday: +244K
EV total = nominally over 2.5mm

Context: Warnock campaign aspired to a 2.1mm EV cycle target. Anything >2.3mm = terrific, anything >2.4mm = almost unthinkable.

And then 2.5mm happened.

Gender spread? Women +10 !!!! Context most favorable to Walker: Old Dixiecrats (white men & women >50yrs) showed up huge. Older white voters, both wealthy suburban & rural, are the largest % participation rate strata by a large measure.

Walker campaign did everything it needed to do to feed the MAGA beast…
Sep 17, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
My Washington Post subscription allows me to share access to great journalism. Check out this gift article, at no cost to you.

Read here: wapo.st/3UfXvtL FL exercised savvy tactics. They’re technically not spending federal $. What happened is DeSantis stonewalled disbursements of COVID relief federal $ Congress appropriated & FL received. Then FL put those $ in the state’s general fund, now DeSantis is spending earned interest.