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John Ʌ Konrad V

@johnkonrad

Oct 4

keep getting DM’s the same two questions:

1) what ended the Port Strike?

2) Was it @GovRonDeSantis calling the NG?

Here’s the timeline from my sources….

Up until 14:09 on Tuesday all my reliable sources were telling me the ILA was digging in for a long fight

@typesfast - who has the best ocean data in the world - was the first to make bold counter call “with 80% probably it will be over by Tuesday”

His company @flexport has some of the best experts in the business and can see in realtime if ships are diverting or not. That combined with smart staff who understand history, political and economic issues is likely what drove the prediction

Ryan also didn’t hesitate to collect information directly from experts.

The person with the best trucking data (trucks need to start diverting too) is @FreightAlley and he echoed Ryan’s optimism yesterday.

Yesterday afternoon @mercoglianos started warning us at @gCaptain to be ready

Biden then made a statement of support of the union and @SecretaryPete applied pressure on USMX at 8PM. DC was finally waking up

Yesterday afternoon I received information from a source that Daggett was getting death threats and public sentiment was against him. Some of his advisers were suggesting he sit down for a deal

Later I got confirmation from another source along the same lines.

There were two problems with the information that prevented me from making a prediction:

1) other sources were adamant the ILA would not budge on automation

2) we got a statement from ILA confirming that Daggett was thrown by the backlash but it said he was a combat veteran and a fighter who wouldn’t back down

This morning more sources confirmed that DC was waking up and ILA was breaking due to the backlash

@mercoglianos got solid information a deal would be made

I published the article on @gCaptain “TikTok Fury and Death Threats: Will ILA Union Boss Daggett Fold or Double Down?”

I also talked to a source in the Trump camp who assured me DJT had deep knowledge of the issues from his time as a NYC real estate developer and was working the problem. No details how but told to watch for something thst would “move the needle”

Talked to @mercoglianos again and he was confident a deal was coming soon

Around lunch I finally got a hold of a Democrat source who said “it close but there’s a sticking point” I assumed it was automation but they would confirm

At 12:52 @GovRonDeSantis called the national guard to take over the ports in FL

Had a long conversation with Sal @mercoglianos @MikeSchuler around lunch and confidence it would end was high but nobody was sure exactly when

I disappeared into meetings for the rest of the afternoon.

I was hesitant to make a call because numerous sources said the ILA was still dug in over automation.

17:18 Sal calls it outscooping everyone

@MikeSchuler gets it up on @gCaptain just after it becomes official /1

So, what exactly happened?

It’s hard to say for sure, but I’m confident the ILA expected public support—and the backlash flipped the script.

The rest is just my informed speculation:

Biden did a good job threading the needle with by supporting the union but applying gentle pressure behind the scene.

@SecretaryPete helped by finally stepping in.

A source close to Trump told me his NYC real estate meant he understand the dynamics well. While it’s unclear if he directed DeSantis, he likely gave at least tacit approval for calling in the National Guard.

Sources told me the deal was nearly done, but no one was sure if it would take hours or days. DeSantis’ move likely sealed the deal, removing any lingering doubt.

Both Trump and Kamala did the country a favor by not turning this into a political fight. Trump had more to gain but also more risk—if the strike dragged on, he could’ve picked up populist support, but Kamala might’ve taken full credit if a deal was struck right before the election.

Kamala stayed quiet, but with Marty Walsh as a close adviser, a union pro, she likely knew more than she let on.

I think all parties made fairly smart moves and I am very glad nobody leveraged this hard for political gain!

That’s a win for the entire nation!!

All this plus a very civil and smart VP debate gives me renewed hope for our future.

/2

All my best sources on the inside as well as my extremely smart friends - @typesfast @FreightAlley @mercoglianos @MikeSchuler - gave clear warnings

Do I regret not breaking the news early?

Not at all!

What made me hesitate most was the automation issue and that has NOT been settled.

All we got was an agreement on pay and broad strokes for a temporary return to work until that great prize fight is announced

I think this was smart for the ILA. It:

1) Lets public outrage settle

2) lets them regroup and rethink strategy

3) shows they are reasonable

4) likely gives them some political credits with both parties

5) lets them lock in much higher paying

USMX wins because there was the ability for ILA and Biden to hammer home the fact that ship owners sre far wealthier than Daggett

/3

Read 8 tweets

John Ʌ Konrad V

@johnkonrad

Oct 2

Craig has an excellent post on the ILA, but what’s missing is a deep dive into the organization they’re negotiating with: USMX

If the ILA is “bad”, USMX is possibly worse

Who are they and why?

USMX (United States Maritime Alliance) represents shipping companies, port operators, and other maritime players along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts. Their role? To negotiate labor contracts and operational policies with dockworker unions like the ILA, ensuring smooth port operations.

But here’s where it gets tricky: despite its American identity, USMX is heavily influenced by foreign interests, including massive overseas corporations like the China-controlled COSCO Shipping.

Although USMX is supposed to represent U.S. interests, foreign-controlled companies within the alliance have significant sway over key decisions. Why? These large companies, with deeper pockets and bigger fleets, control more resources, giving them outsized influence in decision-making. Here’s how they wield their power:

1.Board Representation: Foreign shipping giants often hold significant seats on USMX’s board, shaping agendas and steering decisions.
2.Economic Clout: The financial contributions of the largest foreign ship owners give them more say in how resources are allocated within the alliance, often to suit their own interests.
3.Committees and Expertise: Employees from these companies often lead technical committees, giving them control over critical policy recommendations.
4.Strategic Coalitions: These companies form alliances with other members to drive consensus on issues that benefit them, amplifying their collective influence.
5.Information Access: With access to greater data and resources, they can craft well-founded proposals that steer USMX’s strategy.

So, while USMX negotiates with American dockworkers, foreign ship owners shape these labor negotiation policies.

When USMX prioritizes keeping trade flowing by catering to foreign interests, the U.S. risks losing control over its own critical shipping infrastructure, raising concerns for national security and long-term economic stability. /1

That maybe ok when we are talking about a NATO ally like the Danish company @Maersk or the French @cmacgm

But China’s CCP controlled @COSCOSHIPPING has a board seat too?

How Could China Exert Influence on USMX Decisions?

1.Economic Leverage: China, as a major global trading partner, wields substantial influence by controlling the flow of goods. By offering increased cargo traffic or threatening to divert shipping routes to other countries, they can pressure USMX into making decisions that favor their interests. A promise of more business can entice USMX to align with China’s trade preferences, while the threat of reduced cargo could financially strain U.S. ports.
2.Influence Operations: Behind-the-scenes lobbying is another tactic. China can engage intermediaries or businesspeople with connections to both Chinese interests and USMX, subtly encouraging policies that align with Chinese objectives. These indirect methods create the appearance of a fair negotiation, while steering decisions toward outcomes beneficial to China’s shipping dominance.
Chain Dependence: Many U.S. industries rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing. China could highlight this dependency, reminding USMX that disruptions in their trade relationship could severely impact the supply chain. This indirect pressure encourages USMX to adopt policies that prioritize maintaining smooth trade with China, even if it compromises broader U.S. interests.
4.Leveraging International Regulations: China also works through international bodies like the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to shape global shipping standards. By pushing for regulations that align with its own shipping practices, China can exert influence on USMX to adopt similar policies. These standards may be presented as neutral but are often designed to favor Chinese shipping interests, creating further leverage in global trade negotiations.

While these tactics are subtle, they exemplify the complex web of economic and political influence in international trade, demonstrating how a foreign power like China can quietly shape U.S. maritime policies through economic and regulatory pressure.

/33.Supply

How China Influence could hypothetically Impact USMX’s Broader Role in U.S. National Security:

1. Strategic Supply Chain Control: By shaping USMX decisions, China can indirectly influence the U.S.’s broader supply chain infrastructure. This extends beyond port operations to critical sectors like technology and defense, where the U.S. is reliant on components manufactured in or routed through China. If USMX aligns too closely with foreign interests, this could create vulnerabilities in supply chains crucial for national security.

2. Erosion of U.S. Port Independence: Foreign influence, especially from China, can gradually undermine U.S. port autonomy. If foreign-owned companies and their allies within USMX push for policies that favor their interests, U.S. ports might become increasingly reliant on foreign directives for trade decisions. This compromises U.S. control over its own shipping networks, potentially jeopardizing both economic and strategic independence.

3. Global Geopolitical Leverage: U.S. ports are integral to the country’s global trade power. However, by subtly influencing USMX, China can limit the U.S.’s ability to exert its geopolitical influence via trade. This could extend to controlling key shipping routes or encouraging trade agreements that sideline U.S. interests in favor of Chinese dominance in the Pacific and beyond. This creates long-term strategic risks for the U.S. in maintaining its global maritime leadership.

4. Leverage over terminals and dockworkers could become a real-time throttle on the economy

By allowing foreign entities like China to indirectly shape policy within USMX, the U.S. risks losing not just economic control over its ports, but also strategic positioning in the ever-competitive global maritime landscape. /4

Read 13 tweets

John Ʌ Konrad V

@johnkonrad

Oct 1

The International Longshoreman Union was founded in 1892 but by the end of World War 2 it was a hotbed of organized crime, communist sympathy and corruption.

How did they clean up their act? (or did they?)

And how did Harold Dagget become a star?
A 🧵

There had always been pilferage and corruption at the docks. This is because cargo was carried on stick ships and laoded onto ships by hand.

IT was just too easy to break open a wooden box in the hold of a ship and steal high value cargo. Or you could "accidently" drop a box and claim damage.

But in 1948 the investigative journalist Malcolm Johnson published a 24-part series in the New York Sun detailing the festering underside of the city’s port and it got people's attention spawning congressional hearings as well as the hit 1954 film On the Waterfront.

Read 21 tweets

John Ʌ Konrad V

@johnkonrad

Sep 26

https://twitter.com/malte_humpert/status/1838957562865303617

Ok so in the last few weeks China has deployed

-3 aircraft carriers simultaneously
-3 icebreakers to the arctic
-400 warships exercise with Russia
-251 ship armada into West Philippine Sea

And now… broke this arctic containership record 😳

Why isn’t @POTUS concerned?

https://twitter.com/malte_humpert/status/1838957562865303617

251 ship West Philippine Sea armada 👇

gcaptain.com/china-floods-w…

400 ship joint Russia China naval flex of power 👇

gcaptain.com/ocean-2024-400…

Read 8 tweets

John Ʌ Konrad V

@johnkonrad

Sep 24

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1838429708456718832

It’s not looking good. I’ve been told by a shipowner the Navy does not have a spare oiler to deploy and is scrambling to find a commercial oil tanker to refuel the Abraham Lincoln carrier group.

Updates over at gCaptain forum: forum.gcaptain.com/t/usns-big-hor…

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1838429708456718832

Full article on the USNS Big Horn grounding incident including background on the US Navy's tanker crisis:

gcaptain.com/us-navy-oiler-…

Here’s a great article on the US Navy’s massive shortage of both oilers and oil tankers 👇

gcaptain.com/the-us-navy-ne…

Read 5 tweets

John Ʌ Konrad V

@johnkonrad

Aug 27

704 people cheer on the idea that I'm dumb.

704 people back this West Point Mafia don.

704 people rally behind this DoD intellectual's —complete with foreign flags and pronouns signaling his brahim status — ad hominem attack

And you know what? This is a win. Let me explain in this 🧵:

For decades, shipbuilding has been left in the dust of denial.

Now that a few of us are gaining momentum to build powerful Navy warships and bolster the vital US Merchant Marine, they're coming after our intellect.

This is the 2nd stage of grief.

Hate means they are recognizing the death of our once incredible 🇺🇸 maritime capabilities.

Anger means they are no longer in denial

Read 13 tweets

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